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	<title>Comments on: Open Thread</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-440680</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jan 2010 20:24:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-440680</guid>
		<description>See &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/04/efficient-economists-pledge.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>See <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/04/efficient-economists-pledge.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonas</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-438939</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Dec 2009 12:19:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-438939</guid>
		<description>I have a layman physics question about causality.

I don`t study science, just a bit of sociology and arts. I don`t understand quantum physics, nor do I really understand Einsteins theory of special relativity..

I came a long this question, resulting from a thought experiment. I don`t know if this thought experiment was already labeled or thought up by somebody else. 

I apologize, if I accidently plagiarize.

Though experiment

There are two observers in different locations in space witnessing a chain of events: explosion (A) and explosion (B). Let`s say the explosions only create sound waves, but no light waves.
The causalities are unknown:

A could cause B
B could cause A
A and B could happen simultaneously

Questions:

Is there a constellation, in which observer (1) hears A before B and observer (2) hears B before A even though A and B happen simultaneously?

If you say A causes B, than A has to happen before B. There has to be a time difference because the information from A exploding has to reach B, before B explodes.   

Is there a constellation, in which observer (1) hears A and B simultaneously and observer (2)  hears B before A, even though A causes B?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have a layman physics question about causality.</p>
<p>I don`t study science, just a bit of sociology and arts. I don`t understand quantum physics, nor do I really understand Einsteins theory of special relativity..</p>
<p>I came a long this question, resulting from a thought experiment. I don`t know if this thought experiment was already labeled or thought up by somebody else. </p>
<p>I apologize, if I accidently plagiarize.</p>
<p>Though experiment</p>
<p>There are two observers in different locations in space witnessing a chain of events: explosion (A) and explosion (B). Let`s say the explosions only create sound waves, but no light waves.<br />
The causalities are unknown:</p>
<p>A could cause B<br />
B could cause A<br />
A and B could happen simultaneously</p>
<p>Questions:</p>
<p>Is there a constellation, in which observer (1) hears A before B and observer (2) hears B before A even though A and B happen simultaneously?</p>
<p>If you say A causes B, than A has to happen before B. There has to be a time difference because the information from A exploding has to reach B, before B explodes.   </p>
<p>Is there a constellation, in which observer (1) hears A and B simultaneously and observer (2)  hears B before A, even though A causes B?</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437937</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Dec 2009 06:49:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437937</guid>
		<description>Sure: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyVONYS2wRk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyVONYS2wRk&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sure: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyVONYS2wRk" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyVONYS2wRk</a></p>
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		<title>By: Aron</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437915</link>
		<dc:creator>Aron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Dec 2009 02:27:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437915</guid>
		<description>Can anyone do better for official OB theme song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0wPBYDQ6Y ?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can anyone do better for official OB theme song: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0wPBYDQ6Y" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0wPBYDQ6Y</a> ?</p>
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		<title>By: Karthik</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437441</link>
		<dc:creator>Karthik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 07:53:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437441</guid>
		<description>Hello Dr. Hanson,

I am not sure what sort of questions qualify as &#039;relevant questions&#039;. But I am interested in seeing you write a post on the thought processes involved in deciding whether to procreate or not. In today&#039;s world of 6 odd billion people, there is no real threat to the survival of the species although one&#039;s special genes may die out if one doesn&#039;t procreate. I can&#039;t seem to find any rational justification for procreation by the economically well off since there is an overcompensating rate of procreation by the lesser economically developed nations. And unless one has evidence about racial superiority, there doesn&#039;t seem to be any incentive to procreate as an educated and reasonably well-to-do individual. I&#039;ll look forward to your analysis given that your bio suggests you&#039;ve indulged in procreation yourself.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello Dr. Hanson,</p>
<p>I am not sure what sort of questions qualify as &#8216;relevant questions&#8217;. But I am interested in seeing you write a post on the thought processes involved in deciding whether to procreate or not. In today&#8217;s world of 6 odd billion people, there is no real threat to the survival of the species although one&#8217;s special genes may die out if one doesn&#8217;t procreate. I can&#8217;t seem to find any rational justification for procreation by the economically well off since there is an overcompensating rate of procreation by the lesser economically developed nations. And unless one has evidence about racial superiority, there doesn&#8217;t seem to be any incentive to procreate as an educated and reasonably well-to-do individual. I&#8217;ll look forward to your analysis given that your bio suggests you&#8217;ve indulged in procreation yourself.</p>
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		<title>By: billswift</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437400</link>
		<dc:creator>billswift</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:01:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437400</guid>
		<description>I rather like nesting, I think the value of seeing responses together with the original comment outweighs the irritation of having to check for new responses.  What I really hate is when Hacker News reorders the top level comments based on voting.  That makes it really hard to find new comments to a popular post.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I rather like nesting, I think the value of seeing responses together with the original comment outweighs the irritation of having to check for new responses.  What I really hate is when Hacker News reorders the top level comments based on voting.  That makes it really hard to find new comments to a popular post.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437304</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:30:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437304</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d love to hear about your theory of &quot;dealism&quot;, which was mentioned in Tyler&#039;s &quot;In Praise of Robin Hanson&quot; post.  Is the idea that rational goal-focused people looking to make mutually beneficial deals would (under plausible assumptions) agree to some version of preference utilitarianism (perhaps similar to the economists&#039; notion of efficiency)?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d love to hear about your theory of &#8220;dealism&#8221;, which was mentioned in Tyler&#8217;s &#8220;In Praise of Robin Hanson&#8221; post.  Is the idea that rational goal-focused people looking to make mutually beneficial deals would (under plausible assumptions) agree to some version of preference utilitarianism (perhaps similar to the economists&#8217; notion of efficiency)?</p>
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		<title>By: Noumenon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437300</link>
		<dc:creator>Noumenon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 10:01:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437300</guid>
		<description>Alternatively, if you could subscribe to a thread you could be sure of seeing all new comments, while first-time readers would get the benefit of nesting.  (I love nesting.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alternatively, if you could subscribe to a thread you could be sure of seeing all new comments, while first-time readers would get the benefit of nesting.  (I love nesting.)</p>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437285</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:01:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437285</guid>
		<description>This is my  ‘position statement’ on the Anthropic/Identity puzzles; I make 5 main conjectures with links to papers;  

(1)	Talk of consciousness should be dispensed with and replaced with the language of information theory (complexity, entropy etc) , for an example of a theory along these lines see:

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2202/5/42&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;‘An Information Integration Theory of Consciousness’&lt;/a&gt; 
 
(2)	When reasoning about subjective experience, a more general theory of rationality than Bayesian Induction is needed, the whole notion of ‘anticipation of experience’ is simply incoherent, because Bayes is insufficient  

(3)	The required generalization of Bayes involves translating it to the information theory framework (1) by integrating it with analogical inference, so Bayesian Induction merely becomes a special case of categorization, and ‘Similarity’ turns out to be more fundamental than ‘probability’, see: 

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nbu.bg/cogs/analogy09/proceedings/32-T20.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;‘Integrating Analogical Inference with Bayesian Causal Models’&lt;/a&gt; 

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~mdlee/Lee_Vanpaemel_2007.PDF&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;‘Exemplars, Prototypes, Similarities and Rules in Category Representation: An Example of Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis’&lt;/a&gt; 


(4)	The notion of ‘utility’ also needs to be generalized to convert to the information theory framework (1), this is done by defining a new type of ‘complexity’ based on aesthetics, see below paper on neuroaesthetics for some criteria of what bitstrings the brain regards as ‘interesting’, 

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.imprint.co.uk/rama/art.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;‘The Science of Art’&lt;/a&gt; 


(5) After steps (1)-(4), we have a new framework for dealing with subjective experience; 
(a) epistemological reasoning involves determination of which reference class we fall into (categorization, similarity measure),  ‘anticipation’ and ‘probability’ has nothing to do with it, and (b) Reflective decision making (reasoning about our own valuation algorithm) involves information integration via the new complexity measure – ‘expected utility’ has nothing to do with it.

Have a good Christmas, see y’all around the galaxy!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is my  ‘position statement’ on the Anthropic/Identity puzzles; I make 5 main conjectures with links to papers;  </p>
<p>(1)	Talk of consciousness should be dispensed with and replaced with the language of information theory (complexity, entropy etc) , for an example of a theory along these lines see:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2202/5/42" rel="nofollow">‘An Information Integration Theory of Consciousness’</a> </p>
<p>(2)	When reasoning about subjective experience, a more general theory of rationality than Bayesian Induction is needed, the whole notion of ‘anticipation of experience’ is simply incoherent, because Bayes is insufficient  </p>
<p>(3)	The required generalization of Bayes involves translating it to the information theory framework (1) by integrating it with analogical inference, so Bayesian Induction merely becomes a special case of categorization, and ‘Similarity’ turns out to be more fundamental than ‘probability’, see: </p>
<p><a href="http://www.nbu.bg/cogs/analogy09/proceedings/32-T20.pdf" rel="nofollow">‘Integrating Analogical Inference with Bayesian Causal Models’</a> </p>
<p><a href="http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~mdlee/Lee_Vanpaemel_2007.PDF" rel="nofollow">‘Exemplars, Prototypes, Similarities and Rules in Category Representation: An Example of Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis’</a> </p>
<p>(4)	The notion of ‘utility’ also needs to be generalized to convert to the information theory framework (1), this is done by defining a new type of ‘complexity’ based on aesthetics, see below paper on neuroaesthetics for some criteria of what bitstrings the brain regards as ‘interesting’, </p>
<p><a href="http://www.imprint.co.uk/rama/art.pdf" rel="nofollow">‘The Science of Art’</a> </p>
<p>(5) After steps (1)-(4), we have a new framework for dealing with subjective experience;<br />
(a) epistemological reasoning involves determination of which reference class we fall into (categorization, similarity measure),  ‘anticipation’ and ‘probability’ has nothing to do with it, and (b) Reflective decision making (reasoning about our own valuation algorithm) involves information integration via the new complexity measure – ‘expected utility’ has nothing to do with it.</p>
<p>Have a good Christmas, see y’all around the galaxy!</p>
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		<title>By: Noumenon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/open-thread-27.html#comment-437283</link>
		<dc:creator>Noumenon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:56:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20680#comment-437283</guid>
		<description>I thought you would post more about &lt;em&gt;Violence: A Micro-Sociological Theory&lt;/em&gt; by Randall Collins. I was expecting a post about the various groups children sort themselves into in grade school.  I thought you&#039;d say something like &quot;Do we not make this common knowledge because it&#039;s too painful for us to acknowledge our kids are not dominant?&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought you would post more about <em>Violence: A Micro-Sociological Theory</em> by Randall Collins. I was expecting a post about the various groups children sort themselves into in grade school.  I thought you&#8217;d say something like &#8220;Do we not make this common knowledge because it&#8217;s too painful for us to acknowledge our kids are not dominant?&#8221;</p>
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