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	<title>Comments on: Microlending Fails</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Julian Morrison</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-438471</link>
		<dc:creator>Julian Morrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:19:42 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Business owners did manage to improve profits.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Why is this not considered an important good result?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Business owners did manage to improve profits.</p></blockquote>
<p>Why is this not considered an important good result?</p>
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		<title>By: Rob</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-438466</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:50:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-438466</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I wonder why it didn’t work as well as Grameen.&lt;/em&gt;

Or maybe Grameen doesn&#039;t work well. Nice anecdotes aren&#039;t good evidence.

I&#039;m sure there are a lot of people who would jump at the chance of doing a good controlled study of Grameen Bank&#039;s work. If there&#039;s no study in the works, it&#039;s probably because Grameen doesn&#039;t want it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I wonder why it didn’t work as well as Grameen.</em></p>
<p>Or maybe Grameen doesn&#8217;t work well. Nice anecdotes aren&#8217;t good evidence.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure there are a lot of people who would jump at the chance of doing a good controlled study of Grameen Bank&#8217;s work. If there&#8217;s no study in the works, it&#8217;s probably because Grameen doesn&#8217;t want it.</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Speirs</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-438103</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Speirs</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:35:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-438103</guid>
		<description>I thought microlending was to be judged as a failure or success by whether the &lt;em&gt;investors&lt;/em&gt; made a profit or not.  Isn&#039;t the important advantage of microcredit the ability to spread risk widely?  Have the investors profited or not?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought microlending was to be judged as a failure or success by whether the <em>investors</em> made a profit or not.  Isn&#8217;t the important advantage of microcredit the ability to spread risk widely?  Have the investors profited or not?</p>
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		<title>By: Eric Johnson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437794</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Johnson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:52:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-437794</guid>
		<description>Oil (and natural gas) are really the sole truly profitable raw commodity, from what I understand. There are other precious materials, to be sure, but they dont have a large market (though actually diamonds might semi-qualify in that way). 

So, your asterisk on Robin&#039;s statement does not imply to me that there are many other asterisks (as is often the implicit intention in noting an exception to a rule).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil (and natural gas) are really the sole truly profitable raw commodity, from what I understand. There are other precious materials, to be sure, but they dont have a large market (though actually diamonds might semi-qualify in that way). </p>
<p>So, your asterisk on Robin&#8217;s statement does not imply to me that there are many other asterisks (as is often the implicit intention in noting an exception to a rule).</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437789</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>...a burden of proof never provided, save for anecdotes and focus on a minority of users (e.g., the 5% of heroin users for whom use negatively impacts daily living, ability to hold a job, and support a family).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;a burden of proof never provided, save for anecdotes and focus on a minority of users (e.g., the 5% of heroin users for whom use negatively impacts daily living, ability to hold a job, and support a family).</p>
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		<title>By: Doug S.</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437787</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:10:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-437787</guid>
		<description>Extending Pax Americana the Roman way...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Extending Pax Americana the Roman way&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: David E</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437782</link>
		<dc:creator>David E</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:57:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-437782</guid>
		<description>But we&#039;re only annexing people.  Not territory.

Sometimes I think, if it could be accomplished (and, politically, that seems dubious), the US should just invite Mexico to become part of the US---perhaps doing it a few small regions at a time over several decades to make it less disruptive.

Doubtless, though, there are a thousand objections to this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But we&#8217;re only annexing people.  Not territory.</p>
<p>Sometimes I think, if it could be accomplished (and, politically, that seems dubious), the US should just invite Mexico to become part of the US&#8212;perhaps doing it a few small regions at a time over several decades to make it less disruptive.</p>
<p>Doubtless, though, there are a thousand objections to this.</p>
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		<title>By: Dog of Justice</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437758</link>
		<dc:creator>Dog of Justice</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 12:48:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-437758</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;The relevant statistic is whether the non-immigrants are doing worse because of immigration, not the overall score.&lt;/em&gt;

In a dictatorship, maybe.  Not in a democracy where unassimilated children of immigrants (even illegal ones!) have the same right to vote as you do.  The negative consequences of this may take a while to fully materialize, but they are all too real.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The relevant statistic is whether the non-immigrants are doing worse because of immigration, not the overall score.</em></p>
<p>In a dictatorship, maybe.  Not in a democracy where unassimilated children of immigrants (even illegal ones!) have the same right to vote as you do.  The negative consequences of this may take a while to fully materialize, but they are all too real.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart Armstrong</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437751</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart Armstrong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 11:58:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-437751</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Schools: http://www.cde.ca.gov/ta/ac/ap/, click on the “Descriptive Statistics and Correlation Tables…” link, note the -0.73 correlation between “% Hispanic or Latino” and Academic Performance Index (on page 3 of the pdf). Also note that, 40 years ago, metrics of California secondary school performance placed it in or near the top quartile among US states; now, after a vast increase in immigration, it’s hovering around the tenth percentile.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

The relevant statistic is whether the non-immigrants are doing worse because of immigration, not the overall score. If an immigrant arrives, and isn&#039;t very good at school, he probably still ends up with a better schooling than back home. This will drag down the overall statistics for his new school, &lt;em&gt;even if everyone is now better off&lt;/em&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Schools: <a href="http://www.cde.ca.gov/ta/ac/ap/" rel="nofollow">http://www.cde.ca.gov/ta/ac/ap/</a>, click on the “Descriptive Statistics and Correlation Tables…” link, note the -0.73 correlation between “% Hispanic or Latino” and Academic Performance Index (on page 3 of the pdf). Also note that, 40 years ago, metrics of California secondary school performance placed it in or near the top quartile among US states; now, after a vast increase in immigration, it’s hovering around the tenth percentile.</p></blockquote>
<p>The relevant statistic is whether the non-immigrants are doing worse because of immigration, not the overall score. If an immigrant arrives, and isn&#8217;t very good at school, he probably still ends up with a better schooling than back home. This will drag down the overall statistics for his new school, <em>even if everyone is now better off</em>.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Stuart Armstrong</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/microlending-fails.html#comment-437750</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart Armstrong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 11:53:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20764#comment-437750</guid>
		<description>Yep; you just need to look at (most of) those countries &quot;blessed&quot; with oil to see that...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yep; you just need to look at (most of) those countries &#8220;blessed&#8221; with oil to see that&#8230;</p>
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