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	<title>Comments on: Hail The Unknown Explorer</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Steve Burrows</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-437104</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Burrows</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:07:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-437104</guid>
		<description>I would like to offer accolades to the unsung vain females who dislike body hair and the constant need to shave.  The availability and quality of powerful diode lasers has increased immensely, and the cost per watt has come within the reach of a handful of engineers such that they could achieve a remarkable milestone: www.lasermotive.com, all because diode lasers are ideal for permanently removing hair. 

Because of those hair haters simple vanity, we will get out into space without the risk of blowing ourselves to smithereens (no space elevator required, the lasers themselves are enough).  The technology will lead, in many of our lifetimes, to relativistic travel, which is a good one way time machine to the future, far safer than putting yourself on ice.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would like to offer accolades to the unsung vain females who dislike body hair and the constant need to shave.  The availability and quality of powerful diode lasers has increased immensely, and the cost per watt has come within the reach of a handful of engineers such that they could achieve a remarkable milestone: <a href="http://www.lasermotive.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.lasermotive.com</a>, all because diode lasers are ideal for permanently removing hair. </p>
<p>Because of those hair haters simple vanity, we will get out into space without the risk of blowing ourselves to smithereens (no space elevator required, the lasers themselves are enough).  The technology will lead, in many of our lifetimes, to relativistic travel, which is a good one way time machine to the future, far safer than putting yourself on ice.</p>
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		<title>By: Jay</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436997</link>
		<dc:creator>Jay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 22:19:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436997</guid>
		<description>I seem to recall studies showing that entrepreneurs are, as a rule, irrationally optimistic.  Given the odds of failure, only irrational optimists would choose to start companies.  Having worked for several entrepreneurs, I can personally corroborate this result, and add that destructive narcissism seems to be overrepresented as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I seem to recall studies showing that entrepreneurs are, as a rule, irrationally optimistic.  Given the odds of failure, only irrational optimists would choose to start companies.  Having worked for several entrepreneurs, I can personally corroborate this result, and add that destructive narcissism seems to be overrepresented as well.</p>
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		<title>By: intelib</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436976</link>
		<dc:creator>intelib</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436976</guid>
		<description>[...] Hail The Unknown Explorer, by Robin Hanson [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Hail The Unknown Explorer, by Robin Hanson [...]</p>
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		<title>By: jorge</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436974</link>
		<dc:creator>jorge</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 16:40:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436974</guid>
		<description>Whether innovation or conformity is more important depends on whether new ideas or social cohesion is more important at the margin.  Some nations like Japan have succeeded while emphasizing maxims like, The nail that sticks out needs to be hammered down.

That the  current Western perception is that pioneers like Britain or the US did well by (relatively speaking) promoting individuality over conformity does not mean that on net individuality is superior.  It may well be -- in the longer run -- that the world makes more progress by emphasizing slow developing empires (cf. ancient China) over fast-growing by politically unstable systems (i.e. modern democracy).  Even if this turns out to be false, are you so sure that -- at the margin -- the U.S. needs more innovation or more conformity?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whether innovation or conformity is more important depends on whether new ideas or social cohesion is more important at the margin.  Some nations like Japan have succeeded while emphasizing maxims like, The nail that sticks out needs to be hammered down.</p>
<p>That the  current Western perception is that pioneers like Britain or the US did well by (relatively speaking) promoting individuality over conformity does not mean that on net individuality is superior.  It may well be &#8212; in the longer run &#8212; that the world makes more progress by emphasizing slow developing empires (cf. ancient China) over fast-growing by politically unstable systems (i.e. modern democracy).  Even if this turns out to be false, are you so sure that &#8212; at the margin &#8212; the U.S. needs more innovation or more conformity?</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Howard</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436970</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Howard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:08:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436970</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href=&quot;http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/crackpot.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The Crackpot Index&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/crackpot.html" rel="nofollow">The Crackpot Index</a></p>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436969</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:54:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436969</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
...
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,&lt;/em&gt;

Yeah, that&#039;s actually the gamblers poem Robin.   Throwing all my chips into the pot on my own four-fold artificial intelligence strategy;

&lt;em&gt;&#039;Emotion over Rationality’&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&#039;Practice over Theory’&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;em&gt;‘Cognition as Upper Ontology’&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;em&gt;‘SAI as Teacher and Protector’&lt;/em&gt;

Fame and glory forever or utter humiliation, zero or hero, crank or conquistador, surfing ten thousand galxies of dark matter or washing windows at Denny&#039;s ;)

The universe or nothing.

Which will it be....
Which will it be?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,<br />
&#8230;<br />
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,</em></p>
<p>Yeah, that&#8217;s actually the gamblers poem Robin.   Throwing all my chips into the pot on my own four-fold artificial intelligence strategy;</p>
<p><em>&#8216;Emotion over Rationality’</em><br />
<em>&#8216;Practice over Theory’</em><br />
<em>‘Cognition as Upper Ontology’</em><br />
<em>‘SAI as Teacher and Protector’</em></p>
<p>Fame and glory forever or utter humiliation, zero or hero, crank or conquistador, surfing ten thousand galxies of dark matter or washing windows at Denny&#8217;s <img src='http://www.overcomingbias.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>The universe or nothing.</p>
<p>Which will it be&#8230;.<br />
Which will it be?</p>
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		<title>By: John Maxwell IV</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436965</link>
		<dc:creator>John Maxwell IV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 04:56:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436965</guid>
		<description>What exactly does it mean for something to &quot;have to be done&quot;?  By saying this your are disregarding all sorts of useful information about the relative importance of various activities and just drawing a line at a certain level of importance disregarding all information about an activity except whether it is above or below that line.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What exactly does it mean for something to &#8220;have to be done&#8221;?  By saying this your are disregarding all sorts of useful information about the relative importance of various activities and just drawing a line at a certain level of importance disregarding all information about an activity except whether it is above or below that line.</p>
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		<title>By: John Maxwell IV</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436964</link>
		<dc:creator>John Maxwell IV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 04:52:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436964</guid>
		<description>My impression about humans in general is that confidence in one&#039;s ability to succeed is not terribly well correlated with actual ability to succeed.

If the grubbers fail, is it possible that they might learn something about themselves and succeed next time?

And what exactly can the grubbers be doing that is a better use of their time than trying out exploration?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My impression about humans in general is that confidence in one&#8217;s ability to succeed is not terribly well correlated with actual ability to succeed.</p>
<p>If the grubbers fail, is it possible that they might learn something about themselves and succeed next time?</p>
<p>And what exactly can the grubbers be doing that is a better use of their time than trying out exploration?</p>
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		<title>By: Roko</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436961</link>
		<dc:creator>Roko</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 03:21:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436961</guid>
		<description>I wonder what the many failed explorers will have thanked this thanksgiving? Those who tried to push their incorrect, contrarian ideas and lost their small but hedonically useful stash of youth, talent and money?

After reading Dan Gilbert&#039;s excellent book, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.randomhouse.com/kvpa/gilbert/index.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;stumbling on happiness&lt;/a&gt;, it seems that they too will be glad about the choices that they made. The mind has a way of changing its goals when the old goals are no longer plausible achievable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder what the many failed explorers will have thanked this thanksgiving? Those who tried to push their incorrect, contrarian ideas and lost their small but hedonically useful stash of youth, talent and money?</p>
<p>After reading Dan Gilbert&#8217;s excellent book, <a href="http://www.randomhouse.com/kvpa/gilbert/index.html" rel="nofollow">stumbling on happiness</a>, it seems that they too will be glad about the choices that they made. The mind has a way of changing its goals when the old goals are no longer plausible achievable.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Silliker</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/hail-the-unknown-explorer.html#comment-436959</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Silliker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 02:36:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20631#comment-436959</guid>
		<description>Only by not trying. does failure come about.   Success is in becoming.

Thanks for the disclosure.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Only by not trying. does failure come about.   Success is in becoming.</p>
<p>Thanks for the disclosure.</p>
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