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	<title>Comments on: Fertility Fall Still Puzzling</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: What causes the demographic transition? &#124; Q &#38; not A</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-692948</link>
		<dc:creator>What causes the demographic transition? &#124; Q &#38; not A</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:29:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-692948</guid>
		<description>[...] Not the things you might first think. Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this post. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Not the things you might first think. Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this post. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Layers of Delusion</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-488194</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Layers of Delusion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jul 2011 22:42:11 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>[...] and work-like-hobbies. Hyper-status-seeking can compensate, inducing more work and hobbies, but not more kids. Most are deluded to think this a stable situation; if allowed, gene and culture selection would [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] and work-like-hobbies. Hyper-status-seeking can compensate, inducing more work and hobbies, but not more kids. Most are deluded to think this a stable situation; if allowed, gene and culture selection would [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Fertility Looks Bad</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-461941</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Fertility Looks Bad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Dec 2010 04:22:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-461941</guid>
		<description>[...] as I&#8217;ve suggested before (1 2 3 4), in the modern world trying to making parenting seem heroic runs into a signaling problem [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] as I&#8217;ve suggested before (1 2 3 4), in the modern world trying to making parenting seem heroic runs into a signaling problem [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Marcio Baraco</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-442160</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcio Baraco</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 01:47:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-442160</guid>
		<description>I have also long pondered this odd puzzle of the modern world. Rousseau said that you could judge whether a government was good or bad according to whether the population was increasing or decreasing, and this metric would say weird things about the present world -- or would it?

The comment about K/r is (IMHO) the only one who seems to be on track, but it fails to mention exactly how we should apply it to our case.

My present line of reasoning goes along the lines: in contemporary affluent societies human beings are competing not with environmental factors but with other humans, whereas in more traditional societies the weight of this intra-species competition was less relevant.

In any case, i think the phenomenon underlines how much what we think as &quot;material wealth&quot; is actually not very relevant to survival but exclusively as status signaling.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have also long pondered this odd puzzle of the modern world. Rousseau said that you could judge whether a government was good or bad according to whether the population was increasing or decreasing, and this metric would say weird things about the present world &#8212; or would it?</p>
<p>The comment about K/r is (IMHO) the only one who seems to be on track, but it fails to mention exactly how we should apply it to our case.</p>
<p>My present line of reasoning goes along the lines: in contemporary affluent societies human beings are competing not with environmental factors but with other humans, whereas in more traditional societies the weight of this intra-species competition was less relevant.</p>
<p>In any case, i think the phenomenon underlines how much what we think as &#8220;material wealth&#8221; is actually not very relevant to survival but exclusively as status signaling.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-435102</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:31:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-435102</guid>
		<description>Those are very relevant and interesting articles.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those are very relevant and interesting articles.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason Malloy</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-435087</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Malloy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 08:49:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-435087</guid>
		<description>I should have said, &quot;because women would seek to elevate their status through the one channel available: by acquiring high status mates. And higher status males could subsidize more children.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I should have said, &#8220;because women would seek to elevate their status through the one channel available: by acquiring high status mates. And higher status males could subsidize more children.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Jason Malloy</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-435086</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Malloy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 08:43:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-435086</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;&quot;But the basic question remains open.  While we have some good clues to proximate causes, we just don’t understand how or why natural selection gave us preferences that, in our modern environment, produce such unadaptive behavior.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;


My theory for the demographic transition is &lt;a href=&quot;http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2009/01/educational-gender-parity-and.html?showComment=1233269340000#c9041172318968563480&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;. In short, humans have a weak innate drive to reproduce, but strong innate drives to have sex and gain social status. In the past reproduction was largely mediated through these drives. Prior to female educational and economic integration, the female status drive was adaptive; it resulted in higher reproductive success -- i.e more surviving offspring -- because women would seek to elevate their status through the one channel available:  by acquiring high status mates. In turn this made high reproductive success itself a desirable symbol of social status, since higher status women had more children.

But post-women&#039;s liberation, status drive would have the opposite effect. Now status motivated women have to marry well &lt;i&gt;and&lt;/i&gt; participate in the workforce to remain competitive with other women in the adult status arena. The time and expenses necessary for raising children are instead invested in education, career-building, and conspicuous consumption. In turn this makes low reproductive success a symbol of social status, since higher status have fewer children.

The link between demographic transitioning and status drive are supported by a number of newer papers in the economics literature. 

For example, one &lt;a href=&quot;http://ipl.econ.duke.edu/bread/papers/working/172.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;recent study&lt;/a&gt; from Brazil suggests that status imitation drove their demographic transition. As soon as different regions acquired access to Soap Operas (1960-2000) about small, middle-class Brazilian families, local birth rates would drop dramatically to the levels featured in the TV shows (from 6.3 to 2.3 children), and parents would name their children after the characters in those shows.

A &lt;a href=&quot;http://home.uchicago.edu/~eoster/tvwomen.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;similar effect&lt;/a&gt; on fertility followed cable television introduction in India.

In other words, as soon as women see higher class women adopt low fertility behaviors, they rapidly follow suit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&#8220;But the basic question remains open.  While we have some good clues to proximate causes, we just don’t understand how or why natural selection gave us preferences that, in our modern environment, produce such unadaptive behavior.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>My theory for the demographic transition is <a href="http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2009/01/educational-gender-parity-and.html?showComment=1233269340000#c9041172318968563480" rel="nofollow">here</a>. In short, humans have a weak innate drive to reproduce, but strong innate drives to have sex and gain social status. In the past reproduction was largely mediated through these drives. Prior to female educational and economic integration, the female status drive was adaptive; it resulted in higher reproductive success &#8212; i.e more surviving offspring &#8212; because women would seek to elevate their status through the one channel available:  by acquiring high status mates. In turn this made high reproductive success itself a desirable symbol of social status, since higher status women had more children.</p>
<p>But post-women&#8217;s liberation, status drive would have the opposite effect. Now status motivated women have to marry well <i>and</i> participate in the workforce to remain competitive with other women in the adult status arena. The time and expenses necessary for raising children are instead invested in education, career-building, and conspicuous consumption. In turn this makes low reproductive success a symbol of social status, since higher status have fewer children.</p>
<p>The link between demographic transitioning and status drive are supported by a number of newer papers in the economics literature. </p>
<p>For example, one <a href="http://ipl.econ.duke.edu/bread/papers/working/172.pdf" rel="nofollow">recent study</a> from Brazil suggests that status imitation drove their demographic transition. As soon as different regions acquired access to Soap Operas (1960-2000) about small, middle-class Brazilian families, local birth rates would drop dramatically to the levels featured in the TV shows (from 6.3 to 2.3 children), and parents would name their children after the characters in those shows.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://home.uchicago.edu/~eoster/tvwomen.pdf" rel="nofollow">similar effect</a> on fertility followed cable television introduction in India.</p>
<p>In other words, as soon as women see higher class women adopt low fertility behaviors, they rapidly follow suit.</p>
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		<title>By: Rachel H</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-435069</link>
		<dc:creator>Rachel H</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>@Wei Dai said
&quot;Would you also say that we don’t know how natural selection gave us such an unadaptive immune system?&quot;

It is my never humble opinion that our immune systems have adapted, but &lt;strong&gt;not&lt;/strong&gt; for the better.

An obsession with germ killing (freakin&#039; hand sanitizers and antibacterials EVERYWHERE) leaves us less exposure, thereby weakening the immune response.

It doesn&#039;t get enough exercise.

And the germs have incredible adaptive immune systems - witness the ubiquitous &quot;antibiotic resistant&quot; bacteria and ever changing viruses (AIDS, for example).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Wei Dai said<br />
&#8220;Would you also say that we don’t know how natural selection gave us such an unadaptive immune system?&#8221;</p>
<p>It is my never humble opinion that our immune systems have adapted, but <strong>not</strong> for the better.</p>
<p>An obsession with germ killing (freakin&#8217; hand sanitizers and antibacterials EVERYWHERE) leaves us less exposure, thereby weakening the immune response.</p>
<p>It doesn&#8217;t get enough exercise.</p>
<p>And the germs have incredible adaptive immune systems &#8211; witness the ubiquitous &#8220;antibiotic resistant&#8221; bacteria and ever changing viruses (AIDS, for example).</p>
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		<title>By: MikeM</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-434990</link>
		<dc:creator>MikeM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 07:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20109#comment-434990</guid>
		<description>You&#039;ve come very close here.

I thought this was all pretty well known? The Demographic Transition and all that. Death rates fall as a result of increased wealth and stability while the natal-norms that prevailed in a period of high infant mortality continue on for a while before people adjust. Old preferences of having a lot of pregnancies in order to have several surviving children continue into an age where many more infants make it to adulthood than before. Birth rates only adjust after a long and variable lag where people pick up on the drawbacks of large families and adjust their natal-norms to reflect the new environment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;ve come very close here.</p>
<p>I thought this was all pretty well known? The Demographic Transition and all that. Death rates fall as a result of increased wealth and stability while the natal-norms that prevailed in a period of high infant mortality continue on for a while before people adjust. Old preferences of having a lot of pregnancies in order to have several surviving children continue into an age where many more infants make it to adulthood than before. Birth rates only adjust after a long and variable lag where people pick up on the drawbacks of large families and adjust their natal-norms to reflect the new environment.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Silliker</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/10/fertility-fall-still-puzzling.html#comment-434973</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Silliker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:30:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The loss of the intuitive capacity to raise children, would in my mind lead to the drop in the birth rate.  If you have not experienced a family why would you want one.  This birth rate decline has a trajectory of its own and will continue until .....?  In Canada, the government gives us up to $475.00 a month if we have a child, based on income.  Scarcity  of money is an impediment to having children.  The implementation of the surreal is a factor as well.  A surrealism is a license to decide who, what, where, when, and why gets.  Layer upon layer of licenses have been put in place and to navigate your way through them requires a lot of effort.  Who in their right mind would want to have children.  Some even consider having children to be a PSYCHOTIC event.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The loss of the intuitive capacity to raise children, would in my mind lead to the drop in the birth rate.  If you have not experienced a family why would you want one.  This birth rate decline has a trajectory of its own and will continue until &#8230;..?  In Canada, the government gives us up to $475.00 a month if we have a child, based on income.  Scarcity  of money is an impediment to having children.  The implementation of the surreal is a factor as well.  A surrealism is a license to decide who, what, where, when, and why gets.  Layer upon layer of licenses have been put in place and to navigate your way through them requires a lot of effort.  Who in their right mind would want to have children.  Some even consider having children to be a PSYCHOTIC event.</p>
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