Comments on: This is the Dream Time http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 20:35:32 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-440947 Phil Goetz Thu, 21 Jan 2010 02:44:47 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-440947 No; Vladimir has a point. Consider it "reproducing" vs. "growing". Evolution isn't so easy to analyze when people don't die of old age, and aren't individuals bounded by a skin, and aren't distinct from their goods. There is no real distinction between reproducing and acquiring goods in the future we're talking about. No; Vladimir has a point. Consider it “reproducing” vs. “growing”. Evolution isn’t so easy to analyze when people don’t die of old age, and aren’t individuals bounded by a skin, and aren’t distinct from their goods. There is no real distinction between reproducing and acquiring goods in the future we’re talking about.

]]> By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-440946 Phil Goetz Thu, 21 Jan 2010 02:40:21 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-440946 "The standard simulation argument doesn’t have an explanation for why our present is likely to be simulated" - There's no need for an explanation, as long as you don't assume that we are re-enacting something that happened before (something that many people talking about world-is-a-simulation seem to assume). “The standard simulation argument doesn’t have an explanation for why our present is likely to be simulated” – There’s no need for an explanation, as long as you don’t assume that we are re-enacting something that happened before (something that many people talking about world-is-a-simulation seem to assume).

]]> By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-440945 Phil Goetz Thu, 21 Jan 2010 02:33:23 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-440945 Never listen to web designers! They recommend silly things, like limiting nesting to 3 levels, for the sake of prettiness. Never listen to web designers! They recommend silly things, like limiting nesting to 3 levels, for the sake of prettiness.

]]> By: Joseph Hertzlinger http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434302 Joseph Hertzlinger Thu, 08 Oct 2009 04:27:23 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434302 I've been trying to think of an SF story that matches this scenario of a stable, high-tech subsistence civilization. "The Skinny People of Leptophlebo Street" by R. A. Lafferty (where absolutely <em>everything</em> gets recycled) might be the closest match. I’ve been trying to think of an SF story that matches this scenario of a stable, high-tech subsistence civilization. “The Skinny People of Leptophlebo Street” by R. A. Lafferty (where absolutely everything gets recycled) might be the closest match.

]]> By: denis bider http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434216 denis bider Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:33 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434216 Robin's premise is that, given freedom of fertility, resources will eventually be spread over a near-maximal number of near-subsistence lives, as opposed to a smaller number of richer lives. But universal freedom of fertility does not seem a reasonable assumption to make. It seems more likely that reproduction will be free-er where the will to reproduce is not as strong. Conversely, reproduction will be more restricted where it begins to pose problems - especially if it poses problems to whomever is in charge. Pockets of the universe may indeed be governed by an anarchy with subsistence-level high fertility, while other parts of the universe will be populated by creatures with no internal will to reproduce, or by creatures whose reproduction is held in check externally. In these ways, it is unlikely that the distant universe will be much different than the world we have today. Robin’s premise is that, given freedom of fertility, resources will eventually be spread over a near-maximal number of near-subsistence lives, as opposed to a smaller number of richer lives.

But universal freedom of fertility does not seem a reasonable assumption to make. It seems more likely that reproduction will be free-er where the will to reproduce is not as strong. Conversely, reproduction will be more restricted where it begins to pose problems – especially if it poses problems to whomever is in charge.

Pockets of the universe may indeed be governed by an anarchy with subsistence-level high fertility, while other parts of the universe will be populated by creatures with no internal will to reproduce, or by creatures whose reproduction is held in check externally.

In these ways, it is unlikely that the distant universe will be much different than the world we have today.

]]> By: Susan James http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434139 Susan James Sat, 03 Oct 2009 08:45:53 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434139 ....but then I would expect nothing less from someone with credentials as divergent as Robin's. ….but then I would expect nothing less from someone with credentials as divergent as Robin’s.

]]> By: Susan James http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434138 Susan James Sat, 03 Oct 2009 08:43:59 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434138 This is the most interesting, most diverse, and divergent blog ever posted. Just so you know... This is the most interesting, most diverse, and divergent blog ever posted. Just so you know…

]]> By: nazgulnarsil http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434079 nazgulnarsil Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:41:13 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434079 being below the poverty line really means you don't have access to the materials that form a baseline of status in our society. the vast vast majority of people use their leisure time to pursue status granting activities. social affiliation is a euphemism for status. being below the poverty line really means you don’t have access to the materials that form a baseline of status in our society. the vast vast majority of people use their leisure time to pursue status granting activities. social affiliation is a euphemism for status.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434008 Robin Hanson Thu, 01 Oct 2009 18:53:52 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434008 Even if these infections do not hurt us more than other animal's infections hurt them, these are still especially large delusional harms. Even if these infections do not hurt us more than other animal’s infections hurt them, these are still especially large delusional harms.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html#comment-434007 Robin Hanson Thu, 01 Oct 2009 18:51:34 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19914#comment-434007 You seem to think that people who feel love cannot be mistaken about why they do things. "Hope" is not enough to make your beliefs accurate. You seem to think that people who feel love cannot be mistaken about why they do things. “Hope” is not enough to make your beliefs accurate.

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