Monthly Archives: July 2009

What Are They Thinking?

The Post on US Senate climate bill negotiations:

Environmental activists warn that the 1,400-page House version of the bill already includes so many giveaways to corporate America that more horse-trading in the Senate could lead them to oppose the final version. … If Obama needs more Republicans, he may have to authorize Reid to give in for more funding for the construction of the nation’s first new nuclear power plants in a generation. The environmental lobby has rigorously opposed any new nuclear plants, but several GOP senators, including  Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) and  John McCain (Ariz.), have made their case that nuclear power is the best for cleaning the skies of carbon emissions.

Sure nuclear energy can’t by itself solve global warming – there probably just isn’t enough nuclear fuel out there for that.  But on the margin it should sure help.  The physics showing that nuke plants do emit power but don’t emit carbon is really pretty solid, after all.   So activists telling us we are all going to die die die if we don’t immediately cut way back on carbon emissions might oppose the bill to limit carbon emissions because it might include permission to build nuke plants, that would further reduce carbon emissions?  What gives?  They aren’t nuke physics denialists are they?

Here is how Greenpeace (one founder is now pro-nuke) explains their opposition:

Building enough nuclear power stations to make a meaningful reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would cost trillions of dollars, create tens of thousands of tons of lethal high-level radioactive waste, contribute to further proliferation of nuclear weapons materials, and result in a Chernobyl-scale accident once every decade. Perhaps most significantly, it will  squander the resources necessary to implement meaningful climate change solutions.

So they think they know cheaper ways to cut carbon?  The whole idea of a carbon tax, or cap and trade, is to give people the incentives to figure out for themselves what is actually the cheapest way to cut.  Why not let nuke plants be an option?

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Simple Forecasts Best

A fascinating tale, from the book Dance With Chance:

During the 1970s … It bugged the professor greatly that [business] practitioners were making these predictions without recourse to the latest, most theoretically sophisticated methods developed by statisticians like himself. Instead, they preferred simpler techniques which – they said – allowed them to explain their forecasts more easily to senior management. The outraged author … embarked on a research project that would demonstrate the superiority of the latest statistical techniques. …

The professor and his research assistant collected [111] sets of economic and business data over time from a wide range of economic and business sources. … Each series was split into two parts: earlier data and later data. The researchers pretended that the later part hadn’t happened yet and proceeded to fit various statistical techniques, both simple and statistically sophisticated, to the earlier data. Treating this earlier data as “the past,” they then used each of the techniques to predict “the future,” whereupon they sat back and started to compare their “predictions” with what had actually happened.  Horror of horrors, the practitioners’ simple, boss-pleasing techniques turned out to be more accurate than the statisticians’ clever, statistically sophisticated methods. … One of the simplest methods, known as “single exponential smoothing,” in fact appeared to be one of the most accurate. … Continue reading "Simple Forecasts Best" »

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Do The Smart Help More?

Each new person who exists either helps or hurts everyone else.  My best estimate is that new folks on average help, but I can’t be very sure.  Assuming that new folks help on average, we can wonder: who helps more?

A first guess is that helping is roughly proportional to productivity.  That is, we help by making the world economy more productive overall, so those who produce more help more.  (This roughly captures innovation externalities and global scale and scope economies.) If so, it would not help to subsidize some of our efforts if that came at the expense of taxing the efforts of similarly productive others.  But it might help to subsidize creating new people.

A simple correction to this first guess is to consider charity, under the assumption that charitable giving helps others more than random spending.  Since the poor seem to donate a larger fraction of their income to charity, this would suggest that the poor help others disproportionately, relative to their productivity.

We might also wonder: do smart folks tend to help others more, relative to their productivity?  Last week Linda Gottfredson and Garett Jones surprised me by claiming that this was so, saying that smart folks contribute disproportionately to innovation, and thinking this was obvious.

Gottfredson called the low IQ “dependents” and the high IQ “innovators”; Jones pointed me to smart folks’ disproportionate contributions to patents and startups.  I told Jones these are indicators of the high tail of innovation, not the median; his argument was like saying that rich folks tend give a larger proportion of income to charity because most charity foundations are started by rich folk.

One might argue that since dumb folk just follow routines devised by smart folk,  change must come from the routine makers.  But change also arises from mistakes in following routines, and the dumb may make more mistakes.

The smart may also on average do more wasteful arms racing and signaling, especially affiliative signaling.  The smart seem to dominate musicians, athletes, artists, writers, professors, doctors, lawyers, soldiers, fashion designers, and so on, out of proportion to their compensation.  If these activities tend to contribute proportionally less to overall world productivity, then smart folks would seem to help proportionally less.  They can’t exactly be blamed for filling a slot someone else would fill anyway, but they can’t exactly be praised either.

Added July 9: Garett Jones tells me he doesn’t emphasize the smart as innovators; he suggests the smart help mostly by promoting cooperative institutions; John Nye suggests to me that the smart hurt their local associates by being more worldly and cosmopolitan, and so less loyal to local concerns.

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Stupider Than You Realize

A common bias among the smart is to overestimate how smart everyone else is.  This was certainly my experience in moving from top rank universities as a student to a mid rank university as a teacher.  A better intuition for common abilities can be found by browsing the US National Assesment of Adult Literacy sample questions.

For example, in 1992 out of a random sample of US adults, 7% could not do item SCOR300, which is to find the expiration date on a driver’s license.  26% could not do item AB60303, which is to check the “Please Call” box on a phone message slip when they’ve been told:

James Davidson phones and asks to speak with Ann Jones, who is at a meeting. He needs to know if the contracts he sent are satisfactory and requests that she call before 2:00 p.m. His number is 259-3860. Fill in the message slip below.

Only 52% could do item AB30901, which is to look at a table on page 118 of the 1980 World Almanac and answer:

According to the chart, did U.S. exports of oil (petroleum) increase or decrease between 1976 and 1978?

Only 16% could do item N010301, which is to answer “What is the purpose of the Se Habla Espanol expo?” after reading a short newspaper article called “Se Habla Espanol Hits Chicago; September 25,26,27 are three days that will change your marketing.” The article includes this quote: Continue reading "Stupider Than You Realize" »

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Improved Cores Unwanted

The most interesting thing I learned at the Symposium last weekend was this two year old paper on a survey about enhancement.  Its main result was that the more people considered a feature to be a key part of their identity, the less they wanted to improve it.   Few folks want to improve their empathy, self-confidence, or self-control, while more folks want to enhance their rote memory, math ability, and wakefulness.   I suspect something similar holds for beliefs: the more important a belief is to our identity, the less eager we are to improve that belief via evidence or analysis.  Beware identifying with beliefs!

The paper’s main table:

enhancetable

Hat tip to Anders Sandberg.

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Signaling Beats Race-IQ For Controversy

On Sunday I gave a talk, “Mind Enhancing Behaviors Today” (slides, audio) at an Oxford FHI Cognitive Enhancement Symposium.   To suggest how society might treat future mind enhancements, I reviewed how we today treat mental enhancements in six different areas of life: grunt-work, sport, medicine, nutrition, school, and story.  I discussed signaling explanations our behavior in these areas and in passing mentioned the low marginal health value of medicine.

Also speaking were Linda Gottfredson, on how IQ matters lots for everything, how surprisingly stupid are the mid IQ, and how IQ varies lots with race, and Garett Jones on how IQ varies greatly across nations and is the main reason some are rich and others poor.  I expected Gottfredson and Jones’s talks to be controversial, but they got almost no hostile or skeptical comments – it was my talk that was clearly most controversial!  Alas I don’t have a recording of the open discussion session to show you.

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I’m on MSNBC 9am EST

I’m supposed to be on Dyland Ratigan‘s MSNBC show at 9am EST this morning, talking about medical reform.

While I think I have a solid grasp of the long-term basics, I feel very conscious of all the things I don’t know about who exactly has just said what about which proposals that may or may not have what features depending on who makes what deals.  I suspect the fear of looking stupid on all those ephemeral details detracts most pundits from taking the time to really understand the fundamentals.

Added: Here is one video.  I was on twice before then, but can’t find those yet.

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