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	<title>Comments on: Explain This Correlation</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430668</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2009 04:03:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Bohm&#039;s ontology is far cleaner than the MWI ontology.  The trouble with MWI is that is cannot explain why we observe the reality we actually do (how does our subjective experience emerge from the wavefunction?).

It comes down to a matter of levels of abstraction.  If you think reality only operates on a single level (reductionism) then you&#039;ll go for MWI.  If on the other hand, you think reality is best divided into different levels of abstraction, you&#039;ll be sympathetic toward Bohm.

An analogy might be the relation between deduction and induction; if deduction is just a special case of induction, does that mean we can dispense with the notion of deduction?  By analogy, if the particle is somehow just a part of the pilot wave, can we dispense with the notion of the particle?  I lean towards a &#039;no&#039; answer in both cases.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bohm&#8217;s ontology is far cleaner than the MWI ontology.  The trouble with MWI is that is cannot explain why we observe the reality we actually do (how does our subjective experience emerge from the wavefunction?).</p>
<p>It comes down to a matter of levels of abstraction.  If you think reality only operates on a single level (reductionism) then you&#8217;ll go for MWI.  If on the other hand, you think reality is best divided into different levels of abstraction, you&#8217;ll be sympathetic toward Bohm.</p>
<p>An analogy might be the relation between deduction and induction; if deduction is just a special case of induction, does that mean we can dispense with the notion of deduction?  By analogy, if the particle is somehow just a part of the pilot wave, can we dispense with the notion of the particle?  I lean towards a &#8216;no&#8217; answer in both cases.</p>
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		<title>By: mitchell porter</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430600</link>
		<dc:creator>mitchell porter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:59:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430600</guid>
		<description>This is a bit like asking why the elite intelligentsia of 1900 believed in Fabian socialism, eugenics, and the objective existence of atoms (which was an issue at the time). The common theme would be that these ideas look like the best available answer to some important question. But the details are a mass of historical contingency.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a bit like asking why the elite intelligentsia of 1900 believed in Fabian socialism, eugenics, and the objective existence of atoms (which was an issue at the time). The common theme would be that these ideas look like the best available answer to some important question. But the details are a mass of historical contingency.</p>
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		<title>By: Constant</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430587</link>
		<dc:creator>Constant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2009 11:03:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430587</guid>
		<description>I learned about Bohm at about the same time as MWI, about 20 years ago. I find MWI more compelling for two reasons. First, MWI has fewer bits - Occam&#039;s razor rules in its favor (as I view it). Second, if Bohm is correct about the objective reality in itself, then I think Bohm&#039;s pilot wave would be capable of sustaining subjective experience without the help of the particle. That is, even if there is a pilot wave and a particle as Bohm says, we could just as well occupy some other part of the pilot wave.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I learned about Bohm at about the same time as MWI, about 20 years ago. I find MWI more compelling for two reasons. First, MWI has fewer bits &#8211; Occam&#8217;s razor rules in its favor (as I view it). Second, if Bohm is correct about the objective reality in itself, then I think Bohm&#8217;s pilot wave would be capable of sustaining subjective experience without the help of the particle. That is, even if there is a pilot wave and a particle as Bohm says, we could just as well occupy some other part of the pilot wave.</p>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430579</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2009 02:46:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430579</guid>
		<description>I just want put in a plug for the Bohm intepretation of QM as a strong alternative to MWI.  I didn&#039;t know anything technical about it, about when I researched it I was amazed to discover that it lined up so perfectly to my 3-level ontological model of reality.  This has really caused me to start doubting MWI.

In Bohm, reality has a three level structure - the wave function is split in two - there&#039;s the basic wave function at the top level, a new quantum potential at the mid-level, and the particle on the bottom level.  All three levels are equally real.  Although in Bohm there is no wave function collapse and all branches are equally real, there is only one actual concrete particle history (one world).  

Again, I must emphasize, this is a perfect match to my own recursive 3-level ontological model, which has really startled me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just want put in a plug for the Bohm intepretation of QM as a strong alternative to MWI.  I didn&#8217;t know anything technical about it, about when I researched it I was amazed to discover that it lined up so perfectly to my 3-level ontological model of reality.  This has really caused me to start doubting MWI.</p>
<p>In Bohm, reality has a three level structure &#8211; the wave function is split in two &#8211; there&#8217;s the basic wave function at the top level, a new quantum potential at the mid-level, and the particle on the bottom level.  All three levels are equally real.  Although in Bohm there is no wave function collapse and all branches are equally real, there is only one actual concrete particle history (one world).  </p>
<p>Again, I must emphasize, this is a perfect match to my own recursive 3-level ontological model, which has really startled me.</p>
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		<title>By: island</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430375</link>
		<dc:creator>island</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430375</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Thus, aside from a few who I would consider cranks, physicists believe in anthropic arguments only insofar as they believe in a multiverse.&lt;/em&gt;

That is exactly correct, but you miss the critical point of this willful ignorance, (no, you even join ranks with them), that this is also the reason that physicists are the cranks, since the weak interpretation is not what is observed... duh.

http://dorigo.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/guest-post-rick-ryals-the-anthropic-principle/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Thus, aside from a few who I would consider cranks, physicists believe in anthropic arguments only insofar as they believe in a multiverse.</em></p>
<p>That is exactly correct, but you miss the critical point of this willful ignorance, (no, you even join ranks with them), that this is also the reason that physicists are the cranks, since the weak interpretation is not what is observed&#8230; duh.</p>
<p><a href="http://dorigo.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/guest-post-rick-ryals-the-anthropic-principle/" rel="nofollow">http://dorigo.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/guest-post-rick-ryals-the-anthropic-principle/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430373</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 13:39:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430373</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t know about your first question, but I would have guessed the answer is &quot;no.&quot;  

I don&#039;t think the &quot;perceived flaw&quot; of string theory is higher dimensions.  In fact, that&#039;s an enormous asset, if for instance you think anthropics is the only way to explain the cosmological constant.

I would guess the loop folks would say the flaw in string theory is that it has to take for granted a &quot;background&quot; Minkowski metric, whereas one hopes a fundamental theory incorporating GR would not have to make any prior assumptions about the background geometry.  But I&#039;m not very initiated into either school.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know about your first question, but I would have guessed the answer is &#8220;no.&#8221;  </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think the &#8220;perceived flaw&#8221; of string theory is higher dimensions.  In fact, that&#8217;s an enormous asset, if for instance you think anthropics is the only way to explain the cosmological constant.</p>
<p>I would guess the loop folks would say the flaw in string theory is that it has to take for granted a &#8220;background&#8221; Minkowski metric, whereas one hopes a fundamental theory incorporating GR would not have to make any prior assumptions about the background geometry.  But I&#8217;m not very initiated into either school.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430372</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 13:34:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430372</guid>
		<description>Perhaps this is why people writing above say what they do about &quot;anthropics.&quot;  It should be made clear that the only flavor of &quot;anthropic reasoning&quot; that a significant number of physicists entertain is the idea that our universe is one among many with a variety of different properties, and we observe what properties we do in part because they, unlike others, are suitable to the evolution of observers like us.  

Thus, aside from a few who I would consider cranks, physicists believe in anthropic arguments only insofar as they believe in a multiverse.  

Regarding AI, I suspect a physicists belief in this is independent his/her position on (1) and (2)... so &quot;correlation&quot; might not be a good word.  Maybe I am missing something, but to me the question is merely is it in principle possible to emulate a human mind using a device that is not merely a copy of the human brain.  Physicists, regardless of positions (1) and (2), tend not to believe in a &quot;soul&quot; -- and I think for most the question would boil down to whether thoughts ultimately reflect only the processing of information, in which case one accepts the possibility to build a computer to do the same (though the necessary resources could be enormous, and civilization may end before we figure it all out).  Perhaps physicists readily accept the proposition because they are unaware of what is supposed to be the subtlety (that&#039;s sort of how I feel).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Perhaps this is why people writing above say what they do about &#8220;anthropics.&#8221;  It should be made clear that the only flavor of &#8220;anthropic reasoning&#8221; that a significant number of physicists entertain is the idea that our universe is one among many with a variety of different properties, and we observe what properties we do in part because they, unlike others, are suitable to the evolution of observers like us.  </p>
<p>Thus, aside from a few who I would consider cranks, physicists believe in anthropic arguments only insofar as they believe in a multiverse.  </p>
<p>Regarding AI, I suspect a physicists belief in this is independent his/her position on (1) and (2)&#8230; so &#8220;correlation&#8221; might not be a good word.  Maybe I am missing something, but to me the question is merely is it in principle possible to emulate a human mind using a device that is not merely a copy of the human brain.  Physicists, regardless of positions (1) and (2), tend not to believe in a &#8220;soul&#8221; &#8212; and I think for most the question would boil down to whether thoughts ultimately reflect only the processing of information, in which case one accepts the possibility to build a computer to do the same (though the necessary resources could be enormous, and civilization may end before we figure it all out).  Perhaps physicists readily accept the proposition because they are unaware of what is supposed to be the subtlety (that&#8217;s sort of how I feel).</p>
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		<title>By: Aaron</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430371</link>
		<dc:creator>Aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 13:24:56 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I&#039;m sorry, I&#039;m a perennial newbie at QM. But is there any particular reason why loop quantum gravity would necessarily be in opposition to with MWI? I thought string theory&#039;s perceived flaw was appealing to higher dimensions in this universe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m sorry, I&#8217;m a perennial newbie at QM. But is there any particular reason why loop quantum gravity would necessarily be in opposition to with MWI? I thought string theory&#8217;s perceived flaw was appealing to higher dimensions in this universe.</p>
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		<title>By: Constant</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430370</link>
		<dc:creator>Constant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 10:14:57 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I was comparing MW with Marxism, not talking about anthropism or libertarianism. The category of &quot;big explanation&quot; is a crude, vague, hand-waving thing, of limited explanatory value here. You might call Schroedinger&#039;s equation itself a &quot;big explanation&quot; since it applies to so much. This is what I was critiquing, using as an example MW versus Marxism. What KVN&#039;s argument in effect does is damn MW by association with Marxism, and a highly questionable, forced association at that, which is the height of lazy reasoning. I&#039;m aware of Bohm. Bohm adds new elements since it&#039;s a hidden-variable theory. It&#039;s not necessarily wrong, but it&#039;s not taking the Schroedinger&#039;s equation as seriously as MW, since Schroedinger&#039;s equation does not say anything about the hidden variables, any more than it says anything about the wave-function collapse.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was comparing MW with Marxism, not talking about anthropism or libertarianism. The category of &#8220;big explanation&#8221; is a crude, vague, hand-waving thing, of limited explanatory value here. You might call Schroedinger&#8217;s equation itself a &#8220;big explanation&#8221; since it applies to so much. This is what I was critiquing, using as an example MW versus Marxism. What KVN&#8217;s argument in effect does is damn MW by association with Marxism, and a highly questionable, forced association at that, which is the height of lazy reasoning. I&#8217;m aware of Bohm. Bohm adds new elements since it&#8217;s a hidden-variable theory. It&#8217;s not necessarily wrong, but it&#8217;s not taking the Schroedinger&#8217;s equation as seriously as MW, since Schroedinger&#8217;s equation does not say anything about the hidden variables, any more than it says anything about the wave-function collapse.</p>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/explain-this-correlation.html#comment-430363</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 07:53:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=19041#comment-430363</guid>
		<description>The third belief in the cluster (conscious-AI) is pretty clear-cut rational, but  the other two are highly controversial (as shown by my lower probability assessments).  So some explanation other than rationality is needed.

&gt;Many worlds takes Schroedinger’s equation seriously.

So do numerous alternative explanations.  I think Yudkowsky successfully rebutted all explanations involving the notion of a &#039;wave-function collapse&#039; in his series on this blog, but readers should be aware that numerous other alternative explanations still remain.  The Bohm interpretation, for example, has no wave-function collapse (according to this interpretation reality is stratified into different levels - both wave-function and particle levels equally ontologically real - this is a similar idea to  my  own &#039;3-level causality&#039; theory.)

See for example, the good wikipedia article summarizing the ontology of some of the more popular alternatives (go to comparison table at end):

&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpretation_of_quantum_mechanics&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Ontology of QM Interpretations&lt;/a&gt;

&gt;Marxism does not take market economics seriously but rather is itself a bad, alternative, crackpot theory.

I agree, but Marxists are not likely to see it that way.  And in fact, its opposite number, Libertarianism,  could also be regarded as just as crackpot.  Even moderate versions are certainly not regarded as &#039;rational&#039; by main-stream economists.

Few take anthropics seriously.  It is usually used as a sort of &#039;God of the gaps&#039; - once causal explanations of something are available, you can dispense with anthropics, for instance anthropic arguments are used to explain the cosmological constant only because there is currently no causal explanation, once one is available, I bet that anthropics will be dropped like a hot-potato.

I want to suggest that the believers in this belief cluster are not nearly as &#039;rational&#039; as they think.  They just fancy themselves as &#039;cool smarties&#039;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The third belief in the cluster (conscious-AI) is pretty clear-cut rational, but  the other two are highly controversial (as shown by my lower probability assessments).  So some explanation other than rationality is needed.</p>
<p>&gt;Many worlds takes Schroedinger’s equation seriously.</p>
<p>So do numerous alternative explanations.  I think Yudkowsky successfully rebutted all explanations involving the notion of a &#8216;wave-function collapse&#8217; in his series on this blog, but readers should be aware that numerous other alternative explanations still remain.  The Bohm interpretation, for example, has no wave-function collapse (according to this interpretation reality is stratified into different levels &#8211; both wave-function and particle levels equally ontologically real &#8211; this is a similar idea to  my  own &#8217;3-level causality&#8217; theory.)</p>
<p>See for example, the good wikipedia article summarizing the ontology of some of the more popular alternatives (go to comparison table at end):</p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpretation_of_quantum_mechanics" rel="nofollow">Ontology of QM Interpretations</a></p>
<p>&gt;Marxism does not take market economics seriously but rather is itself a bad, alternative, crackpot theory.</p>
<p>I agree, but Marxists are not likely to see it that way.  And in fact, its opposite number, Libertarianism,  could also be regarded as just as crackpot.  Even moderate versions are certainly not regarded as &#8216;rational&#8217; by main-stream economists.</p>
<p>Few take anthropics seriously.  It is usually used as a sort of &#8216;God of the gaps&#8217; &#8211; once causal explanations of something are available, you can dispense with anthropics, for instance anthropic arguments are used to explain the cosmological constant only because there is currently no causal explanation, once one is available, I bet that anthropics will be dropped like a hot-potato.</p>
<p>I want to suggest that the believers in this belief cluster are not nearly as &#8216;rational&#8217; as they think.  They just fancy themselves as &#8216;cool smarties&#8217;.</p>
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