Comments on: Space Storm Insurance

By: Wired for War « Bayesian Investor Blog

Wired for War « Bayesian Investor Blog — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 04:50:14 +0000

[...] I’m disappointed by his three-paragraph treatment of EMP risks. He understands that EMPs could cause major problems, but he failed to find any of the ideas people have about mitigating the risk. [...]

By: John Smith

John Smith — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 15:15:13 +0000

According to the Department of Homelamd Security report http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/02/increasing-civilization-robustness.html, the estimated protection cost is $150 million, and not $10 million.

By: TheMoneyIllusion » Will the experts save us from catastrophe?

TheMoneyIllusion » Will the experts save us from catastrophe? — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 18:47:48 +0000

[...] PS. Robin Hanson has a much better example here. [...]

By: Fareed Zakaria – Kevin Burke

Fareed Zakaria – Kevin Burke — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:03:36 +0000

[...] a whole lot of people would go hungry fast as global crop supply would fail to meet demand. Or a solar eruption could cause such a large burst of electromagnetism that it would wipe out the entire East Coast [...]

By: » Wyścig zbrojeń nuklearnych i ignorowanie małego prawdopodobieństwa Trystero: Niezależny blog finansowy

Sun, 27 Sep 2009 13:24:05 +0000

[...] Ocena tej konkretnej części polityki administracji Reagana jest ściśle związana z poznawczym skrzywieniem rodzaju ludzkiego: permanentnej skłonności do ignorowania małego prawdopodobieństwa. To skrzywienie jest tym groźniejsze im większe straty związane są ze zdarzeniem obarczonym małym prawdopodobieństwem. Koronnym przykładem takie skrzywienia jest ignorowanie zagrożenia związanego z uderzeniem asteroidy (str. 187) lub ignorowanie niebezpieczeństwa związanego ze skutkami burzy słonecznej. [...]

By: Predicting the Future « The Excitement of Typing

Predicting the Future « The Excitement of Typing — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:56:06 +0000

[...] Black Swans: terrorism, war, plague, a sudden energy shortage, financial crises, asteroid strike, solar storm, cultural collapse, or one of the thousands of possibilities we cannot yet [...]

By: John

John — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:54:34 +0000

Robin, what’s the source of the $10 million estimate? I don’t see it in the linked materials.

By: TheMoneyIllusion » Did the Great Depression and WWII have the same cause?

TheMoneyIllusion » Did the Great Depression and WWII have the same cause? — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:46:11 +0000

[...] disease that is fatal and easily spread, or even something as mundane as a solar flare, which Robin Hanson claims could easily plunge us into a dystopian world out of a Cormac McCarthy novel. (At least [...]

By: Robert Koslover

Robert Koslover — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:06:15 +0000

mtc, the real problem is that we may not have nearly that much time of warning.

By: mtc

mtc — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:44:19 +0000

Well the wikipedia link on the 1859 storm says it took 18 hours for the massive coronal ejection to actually get to earth. So in 18 hours, we can’t just open all the relevant breakers (that are set up trip almost instantly during overload conditions)? I understand just shutting down power generation doesn’t help any, but I have to think there’s a way to break the loops in the distribution system and save all/most of the transformers. So you have a 24/48/72 hour blackout, which causes some significant problems, but certainly doesn’t leave millions dead (as destroying most of the electrical infastructure might plausibly does over a year).