Monthly Archives: May 2009

We Like Pride

By Robin Hanson · May 6, 2009 6:00 am · Comments (5)

A recent Psychological Science article describes experiments where subjects were randomly induced into either an proud or a neutral mental state, and then worked with a group on solving a problem:

Proud individuals not only took on a dominant role within the group problem-solving task, but also were perceived as the most likeable interaction partners. These findings suggest that pride, when representing an appropriate response to actual performance (as opposed to overgeneralized hubris), constitutes a functional social emotion with important implications for leadership and the building of social capital.

This seems a somewhat odd conclusion to draw, since in this experiment the pride was not an appropriate response to actual performance; it was randomly induced! 

Nevertheless, this does seem to confirm pride as a signal of social status.  We like folks who signal high status, except if they are a rival or we think they are bidding for more status than they can support. 

Added: This NYT article from a month ago reviews this and other pride studies.

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Engagement Swaps

By Robin Hanson · May 5, 2009 6:00 am · Comments (14)

In broad disputes, such as we often find in economic policy, each "side" usually has points it thinks are neglected by other sides.  These points may be especially strong arguments for its own conclusions, or especially weak places in arguments for conclusions of other sides.  I can think of several such apparent neglected points favoring my "sides." 

Often members of a side will feel frustrated that their strongest points seem to be ignored.  Your point may seem too simple or unoriginal to be worth a new publication, but you'd sure love to make it clear to observers how weak are the responses to your strongest points.

You might think that if, in addition to wanting to support our side, we also put some weight on wanting to know the truth, we might find "gains from trade" by making "engagement swaps."  These would be deals between sides whereby we each agree to engage some points proposed by other sides.  We might agree to write so many words, or talk for so many minutes, on each point. 

I suggested this idea to my colleague Dan Klein and he actually tried a bit to see how feasible such swaps might be in his corner of the policy dispute world.  Alas, his verdict was negative; it doesn't seem very workable.  Which raises the question: why?

Some possible answers:

  1. Folks care little about truth, so there are no gains from trade.
  2. Even talking with other sides makes you seem disloyal to your side. 
  3. If they propose it, you fear adverse selection in topic, participant choices.
  4. Your responses to their strongest points will be weak, making you look weak.

Added 6May: Dan Klein comments:

It is often whole positions or whole issues that the other side too often ignores. For example, on FDA or occupational licensing, it's not that soc dems ignore individual points, but rather that they evade the whole issue.
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Prefer Peace

By Robin Hanson · May 4, 2009 6:00 am · Comments (45)

As fiction authors know, compelling stories need conflict; readers love to root for good guys against bad guys.  As college professors know, students perk up when academic topics are posed as conflicts.  Sophomores love to hear each subject posed as a conflict between several possible isms, especially a long bitter conflict.  To them, intellectual maturity consists largely of looking over a long menu and ordering one from column A, one from column B, and so on.  But while I'd like to be a popular teacher, I'd rather be honest, and most subjects are just not well described as a conflict of isms. 

When asked to evaluate a proposed economic policy, most students identify some winners and losers, and then favor or oppose the policy based on which group they like best.  It takes a long time for students to learn to think in terms of economic efficiency, weighing the costs and benefits for all effected parties, and even then students usually find an even-handed approach much less inspiring.  Some econ profs engage students by inviting them to join the few knowing insiders against the ignorant multitudes outside, but even that rings wrong to me.

Yesterday I discussed the tension between the ideals we often verbalize and the goals our usual choices seem designed to achieve.  I tried to argue for compromise, for seeking "variations on common ideals which one can more easily admit serve ordinary non-ideal ends."  But, most commenters did not want compromise; they instead wanted to take sides and seek better ways for their side to win the war.  Generation after generation, the [added: some] old tell the young to seek internal peace; no internal side has the strength to win a clean victory, so all out war risks all out destruction.  But the young will not hear.

It seems that one of humanity's strongest ideals is actually war, i.e., uncompromising conflict.  In our culture we are supposed to oppose ordinary bloody war, preferring peace when possible there. But we do not generalize this lesson much to other sorts of  conflicts.  We celebrate those who take sides and win far more than we do peacemakers and compromisers.  But the principle is the same; every side can expect to get more of what it wants from compromise deals than from all out conflict.

Added: Byran Caplan asks:

What makes Robin think that "every side can expect to get more" from compromise than conflict?  Doesn't anyone have a comparative advantage in conflict?  And all it takes to get a conflict is one willing combatant, no?

Deals are not always enforceable, admitting interest in a deal might send the wrong signal, and one may need to threaten conflict to get the best deal.  Even so, there is some deal that beats each conflict for each party.

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Toward Honest Ideals

By Robin Hanson · May 3, 2009 6:00 am · Comments (18)

In Generous Lust, I quoted:

In women, mating goals boosted public— but not private— helping. … In men, it did induce more helpfulness in contexts in which they could display heroism or dominance. … Overall, romantic motives seem to produce highly strategic and sex-specific self-presentations best understood within a costly signaling framework.

In Far Thoughts Fit Ideals, I said:

We tend more to say we will act in accord with our verbally expressed and proudly embraced abstract ideals, e.g., individualism, collectivism, universalism, environmentalism, when we are put into the mental mode that was designed more for talking relative to doing – the far mode.  In contrast, when we are in our usual near mode … we tend to ignore those abstract ideals, … practically achieving our usual ends.

I asked:

In what sense, if any, are folks who act these ways mistaken about what they want?

I'll say we tend to be mistaken about how much our wants depend on contextual details.  As I said in Generous Lust:

The disturbing thing is that these folks were probably unaware that their generosity was caused in large part by romantic feelings.  They probably thought they just wanted to help, not that they wanted to help especially when it might impress potential mates.

We tend to talk as if we "really" want to follow our ideals but are sometimes thwarted by "distractions" or "weakness of will."  But we probably favor our ideals more when:

Continue reading "Toward Honest Ideals" »

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Far Thoughts Fit Ideals

By Robin Hanson · May 2, 2009 10:00 am · Comments (3)

Back in January, a Journal of Personality and Social Psychology article found:

Values are more likely to be expressed through value-congruent judgments and behaviors when individuals think abstractly about their actions, and not when they think concretely.

This wording sounds strange to an economist; to us someone's "values" are just whatever preferences explain his behavior.  The behavior of folks thinking in near (concrete) mode is just as explainable as for those thinking in far (abstract) mode – it is just explainable via different preferences.

However, by "values" these psychologists actually mean what I'll call "ideals" – abstract, as opposed to concrete, goals that we verbally, and usually proudly, embrace.  They include:

individualistic goals (e.g., “For unique individuals like you”). … collectivistic goals (e.g., “For spending quality time with friends and family”) …  universalism (i.e., understanding, appreciation, tolerance, and protection for the welfare of all people and of nature) and self-direction values (i.e., independent thought and action choosing, creating, and exploring)

Continue reading "Far Thoughts Fit Ideals" »

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Generous Lust

By Robin Hanson · May 1, 2009 9:00 pm · Comments (17)

I've been pondering this 2007 JPSP article, summarized by the Economist:

They divided a bunch of volunteers into two groups. Those in one were put into what the researchers hoped would be a “romantic mindset” by being shown pictures of attractive members of the opposite sex. … The unlucky members of the other group were shown pictures of buildings …

The participants were then asked … to imagine they had $5,000 in the bank. They could spend part or all of it on various luxury items such as a new car, a dinner party at a restaurant or a holiday in Europe. They were also asked what fraction of a hypothetical 60 hours of leisure time during the course of a month they would devote to volunteer work. …

In the romantically primed group, the men went wild with the Monopoly money. Conversely, the women volunteered their lives away. … Meanwhile, in the other group there was little inclination either to profligate spending or to good works. Based on this result, it looks as though the sexes do, indeed, have different strategies for showing off. …

Continue reading "Generous Lust" »

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Cloud Seeding Works

By Robin Hanson · May 1, 2009 3:00 pm · Comments (13)

Folks have been seeding clouds to induce rain for over a century, but weather variability has made it hard to collect clear evidence that seeding increases rainfall.  Because of this, many consider cloud-seeding to be a psuedo-science.  But the latest Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology presents relatively strong support:

An analysis of cloud seeding activity for the period 1960–2005 over a hydroelectric catchment (target) area located in central Tasmania is presented. The analysis is performed using a double ratio on monthly area averaged rainfall for the months May–October. Results indicate that increases in monthly precipitation are observed within the target area relative to nearby controls during periods of cloud seeding activity. Ten independent tests were performed and all double ratios found are above unity with values that range from 5–14%. Nine out of ten confidence intervals are entirely above unity and overlap in the range of 6–11%. Nine tests obtain levels of significance greater than the 0.05 level. If the Bonferroni adjustment is made to account for multiple comparisons, six tests are found to be significant at the adjusted alpha level. Further field measurements of the cloud microphysics over this region are needed to provide a physical basis for these statistical results.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence; sometimes it can just take a long time for clear evidence to accumulate.

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Open Thread

By Robin Hanson · May 1, 2009 10:00 am · Comments (13)

This is a place to discuss OB topics that have not appeared in recent posts.

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