Comments on: Yes, Tax Lax Ideas

By: frelkins

frelkins — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 21:55:02 +0000

@All

And let be noted that in the end, after tossing his gorilla dust and pounding some tree branches on the forest floor, Russ wouldn’t put his cash on the line. Blonde Conquers Once Again! You’re right Russ – you’re done.

By: Russ Andersson

Russ Andersson — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 20:26:31 +0000

@Frelkins … You amuse me and seem to be a good sport. But I think we have taken this debate as far as it can go before we irritate the other readers here with our petty squabble. I like OB because there is little to no bickering and the quality of the responses high. Fact is I have personally been involved in selling some of the larger deals that I am aware of in the PM space, which in truth is not saying much at all. And I can assure you that it was phenomenally hard to do, which is why I made the points that I did. This is first hand real world experience my friend, not something I read about on a blog.

Secondly, those supposed luxury french shoes you linked too, I believe that they are actually made in china. And not only that, I’m further informed from a reputable source, that some of the lasts they use for the larger sizes are not even women’s shoe lasts, they are men’s! Oh my friend, I am giving you such an education here, I should charge you a tuition!

By: frelkins

frelkins — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:47:22 +0000

Put your money down, suckas! I'd enjoy spending it on Louboutins and Champagne. "the politics of their adoption within corporate America" Because you don't know how to sell them, Russ, doesn't mean it can't be done. How I tire of prople telling me bumblebees can't fly - many markets exist. Even Hanson has estimated "hundreds," iirc.

By: Russ Andersson

Russ Andersson — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 18:55:47 +0000

@Khafra. I am already overly long prediction markets, but in the spirit of the post I would be willing to participate given that Frelkins seems to be a sassy blonde in the know. No problem. I guess it would be an emotional hedge of some-sort.

My basic position regarding PMs is that they have potential and merit. Obviously. They dramatically reduce forecast error. And in a perfect world they would be much more prevalently used. But they also have some fundamental challenges, mainly related to the politics of their adoption within corporate America, which suggests that perhaps their growth will take longer than most people realize or anticipate. So relative to expectation their adoption will be smaller and slower than participants expect. It is also possible that to get PMs to the point where they are perceived as more than just a cool fad, it may also require a dramatic changes in their structure and their business models. So I’m short them. Which is unfortunate. The concept is great and the science behind them sound. The primary problem with PM’s is that the decision makers within corp America do not want to support them. Reminds me of the great Jack Nicholson line in A Few Good Men: “you can’t handle the truth.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5j2F4VcBmeo

So if you can structure a relevant trade on prediction market adoption in 2009 underperforming, then I would sign up for it in the spirit of the post. Let’s see if we can find some form of index or measure to trade on and go from there. I’m game. I’m also curious to know what Frelkins knows that maybe I don’t know.

By: khafra

khafra — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 17:21:29 +0000

Frelkins and Russ Anderson, you should make a public bet on whether prediction market participation or some other metric will increase by a specified percentage within a year or two.

By: Mike Kenny

Mike Kenny — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 16:38:28 +0000

Robin, fair enough–I didn’t take into account the risk to reputation that was brought up in thread.

By: Hopefully Anonymous

Hopefully Anonymous — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 15:35:54 +0000

Robin,
I’ll stick to more narrowly focusing on maximizing my persistence odds, thank you very much.
Still, I intuit that you’re wrong, wrong, wrong about this “I say it is too expensive for a third party to try to fairly score typical google-found vague claims as right or wrong. Claimers need to make the effort to choose a more precise scoreable claim, as people will just not trust a third party has having fairly interpreted their claims. … no mass market exists.”

in the sense and to the the extent that I outlined in my earlier commments to this thread.

By: Sissy Willis

Sissy Willis — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 14:56:07 +0000

" . . . rumors that trash folks are very influential in female cultures that allow such things." Are you calling Rahm Emanuel and his media allies pansies?

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 14:33:03 +0000

Hopefully, go ahead and try your idea and prove me wrong. I say it is too expensive for a third party to try to fairly score typical google-found vague claims as right or wrong. Claimers need to make the effort to choose a more precise scoreable claim, as people will just not trust a third party has having fairly interpreted their claims.

Jacob, yes we may well develop a niche market for a product, even if no mass market exists.

By: Tomasz Wegrzanowski

Tomasz Wegrzanowski — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 04:47:32 +0000

Wikipedia has some discussion about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon-Ehrlich_wager#Other_wagers

Such bets are still very rare. The main problem seems to be agreeing to terms of the wager, usually two sides want to bet on not exactly the same thing. From brief look at their blogs it doesn’t seems that Krugman and Mankiw are even arguing about the same thing, Krugman is predicting some level of post-recession rebound, and Mankiw is talking about exact Obama’s GDP predictions, two are only very loosely related, it’s very easy to imagine that rebound will happen, but GDP predictions will be way off.