Comments on: I’ll Be Different http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Barkley Rosser http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385599 Barkley Rosser Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:57:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385599 Tyler is so old, he trips over his beard on the way to lunch. Tyler is so old, he trips over his beard on the way to lunch.

]]> By: Jason Malloy http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385598 Jason Malloy Mon, 30 Mar 2009 00:17:38 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385598 <i>Because all those people are different, obviously. </i> By which I mean people in the same peer group who made similar choices nevertheless had wildly different outcomes. Some people that marry are eternal Honeymooners, others went through infidelity and humiliating divorce. On what basis do you decide which one will happen to you? Also I don't see why the younger colleague should accept he'll be like the older people who don't have evolving music tastes, when there are plenty of older people that do have such tastes*. Whose experiences should he accept? * Isn't Tyler Cowen an older culture maven? Because all those people are different, obviously.

By which I mean people in the same peer group who made similar choices nevertheless had wildly different outcomes. Some people that marry are eternal Honeymooners, others went through infidelity and humiliating divorce. On what basis do you decide which one will happen to you?

Also I don’t see why the younger colleague should accept he’ll be like the older people who don’t have evolving music tastes, when there are plenty of older people that do have such tastes*. Whose experiences should he accept?

* Isn’t Tyler Cowen an older culture maven?

]]> By: Jason Malloy http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385597 Jason Malloy Mon, 30 Mar 2009 00:00:13 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385597 <i>Yet all around them are other folks who are old, married, etc. - why not just accept those experiences as a good predictions of such futures? </i> Because all those people are different, obviously. <i>Women made more accurate predictions about how much they would enjoy a date with a man when they knew how much another woman in their social network enjoyed dating the man than when they read the man’s personal profile and saw his photograph. </i> This is actually just an example of <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10966-beauty-is-in-the-eye-of-your-friends.html" rel="nofollow">"mate choice copying".</a> Yet all around them are other folks who are old, married, etc. – why not just accept those experiences as a good predictions of such futures?

Because all those people are different, obviously.

Women made more accurate predictions about how much they would enjoy a date with a man when they knew how much another woman in their social network enjoyed dating the man than when they read the man’s personal profile and saw his photograph.

This is actually just an example of “mate choice copying”.

]]> By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385596 Phil Goetz Sun, 29 Mar 2009 04:26:24 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385596 I'd like to have a way of measuring whether the fact that I don't keep up with new music is a sign of getting old. I don't keep up with new music; but it's also true that<ul><li>I don't dislike new music; I don't even hear it as being significantly different from the music I heard in college. Unlike my parents, who found new music different and distasteful, I find it not different enough to be interesting. <li>The people who do keep up with new music can never tell me how they do it; they all agree that you won't hear any interesting new music on the radio anymore. </ul> I’d like to have a way of measuring whether the fact that I don’t keep up with new music is a sign of getting old.

I don’t keep up with new music; but it’s also true that

  • I don’t dislike new music; I don’t even hear it as being significantly different from the music I heard in college. Unlike my parents, who found new music different and distasteful, I find it not different enough to be interesting.
  • The people who do keep up with new music can never tell me how they do it; they all agree that you won’t hear any interesting new music on the radio anymore.
]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385595 Eliezer Yudkowsky Sat, 28 Mar 2009 07:00:46 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385595 Robin, my current future self is different from average in most of the ways that my past self expected it to be, especially those dimensions (such as having children, going to college) where others disagreed with my predictions. Robin, my current future self is different from average in most of the ways that my past self expected it to be, especially those dimensions (such as having children, going to college) where others disagreed with my predictions.

]]> By: Barkley Rosser http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385594 Barkley Rosser Sat, 28 Mar 2009 05:39:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385594 Katja, If the young are not idealistic, then who will be? It is a very rare person who becomes more idealistic with age, although it is not unheard of, and, heck, we do need some idealism in this sorry world. Katja,

If the young are not idealistic, then who will be? It is a very rare person who becomes more idealistic with age, although it is not unheard of, and, heck, we do need some idealism in this sorry world.

]]> By: Katja Grace http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385593 Katja Grace Sat, 28 Mar 2009 01:09:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385593 Robin, why do older people think the young should be idealistic then? That's mean - they should tell us why it's not important or useful. I guess perhaps because idealism is good in others, just not in self. They seem genuine though. Robin, why do older people think the young should be idealistic then? That’s mean – they should tell us why it’s not important or useful. I guess perhaps because idealism is good in others, just not in self. They seem genuine though.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385592 Robin Hanson Fri, 27 Mar 2009 16:08:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385592 Eliezer, what works when you do it? Katja, one could also realize that idealistic aims are less important or useful than one had thought. Eliezer, what works when you do it?

Katja, one could also realize that idealistic aims are less important or useful than one had thought.

]]> By: Barkley Rosser http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385591 Barkley Rosser Fri, 27 Mar 2009 16:06:09 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385591 I think a lot of this losing idealism and becoming "jaded" is simply the result of dealing with the responsibilities that most of us face as we get older, especially when one has children. This forces one to focus on material wealth and sacrificing for the good of one's children, which is itself of course sort of idealistic, but what is involved often involves making all sorts of unpleasant compromises with hard and unpleasant realities in the world that one did not have to when one was an idealistic and unmarried and childless college student, thinking about changing the world for the better, and all that. I think a lot of this losing idealism and becoming “jaded” is simply the result of dealing with the responsibilities that most of us face as we get older, especially when one has children. This forces one to focus on material wealth and sacrificing for the good of one’s children, which is itself of course sort of idealistic, but what is involved often involves making all sorts of unpleasant compromises with hard and unpleasant realities in the world that one did not have to when one was an idealistic and unmarried and childless college student, thinking about changing the world for the better, and all that.

]]> By: Katja Grace http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385590 Katja Grace Fri, 27 Mar 2009 05:17:47 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/ill-be-different.html#comment-385590 Whether it should bother you now that your preferences will change depends whether you currently think you have an aim for its own sake (so would prefer others to work on it too, including your future self) or you think your aim is to be happy, and your current preferences happen to forward that, as will your future preferences presumably. Interesting that so many here say 'actually I'm different, I don't do this'. Seems better explained by 'nobody believes this' than by us being different. If my memory is right then when I was a child in some ways I expected to become a lot more like 20 year olds I saw than I am, in some ways I expected to keep traits that I have lost. I could choose either of these to think about after reading this, but I'm drawn to think about the one that makes me seem different to the people in the study. With some things there seem to be confusing influences - e.g. while older people tend to be less idealistic, they generally encourage idealism in the young. They also say they became 'jaded'. As the young, this makes me think they misunderstood what they were in for to begin with, rather than that they received important info that I don't have, or their preferences changed. Being 'jaded' suggests originally believing that succeeding in idealistic aims would be easy or certain at all. Otherwise why would failing a lot matter? I think I expect a lot of failing and I still want to be idealistic, so I figure I should be harder to jade. But there are loads of ex-idealists out there to suggest to me that I won't last the decade. What should I think? Whether it should bother you now that your preferences will change depends whether you currently think you have an aim for its own sake (so would prefer others to work on it too, including your future self) or you think your aim is to be happy, and your current preferences happen to forward that, as will your future preferences presumably.

Interesting that so many here say ‘actually I’m different, I don’t do this’. Seems better explained by ‘nobody believes this’ than by us being different. If my memory is right then when I was a child in some ways I expected to become a lot more like 20 year olds I saw than I am, in some ways I expected to keep traits that I have lost. I could choose either of these to think about after reading this, but I’m drawn to think about the one that makes me seem different to the people in the study.

With some things there seem to be confusing influences – e.g. while older people tend to be less idealistic, they generally encourage idealism in the young. They also say they became ‘jaded’. As the young, this makes me think they misunderstood what they were in for to begin with, rather than that they received important info that I don’t have, or their preferences changed. Being ‘jaded’ suggests originally believing that succeeding in idealistic aims would be easy or certain at all. Otherwise why would failing a lot matter? I think I expect a lot of failing and I still want to be idealistic, so I figure I should be harder to jade. But there are loads of ex-idealists out there to suggest to me that I won’t last the decade. What should I think?

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