Comments on: Break Cryonics Down http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:49:33 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Luke http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-424731 Luke Thu, 28 May 2009 21:37:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-424731 Morally speaking, if you delay the advancement or adoption of a lifesaving technology, you are killing people. If you actually know about it, you are killing people deliberately. So if you think cryonics is possible potentially, but we aren't there yet, you still have a moral obligation on grounds of common decency to support rapid research and adoption of cryonics. So don't give me that "I'm a skeptic" garbage. This is and always has been about saving lives, not just our own but everybody's. Morally speaking, if you delay the advancement or adoption of a lifesaving technology, you are killing people. If you actually know about it, you are killing people deliberately.

So if you think cryonics is possible potentially, but we aren’t there yet, you still have a moral obligation on grounds of common decency to support rapid research and adoption of cryonics.

So don’t give me that “I’m a skeptic” garbage. This is and always has been about saving lives, not just our own but everybody’s.

]]> By: Mark Reid http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-425396 Mark Reid Thu, 26 Mar 2009 07:58:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-425396 <p>Robin's breakdown of the probability of being usefully revived after cryonics seems a lot like the type of reasoning used in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation" rel="nofollow">Drake equation</a> to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilisations that we may encounter.</p> <p>Does anyone here (Robin?) find the cryonics breakdown plausible but not the Drake equation?</p> Robin’s breakdown of the probability of being usefully revived after cryonics seems a lot like the type of reasoning used in the Drake equation to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilisations that we may encounter.

Does anyone here (Robin?) find the cryonics breakdown plausible but not the Drake equation?

]]> By: Zac http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-425395 Zac Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:48:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-425395 <p>Robin's 10 conditional probability items make sense to me. I just think he is far too optimistic about some of the probabilities. I say:</p> <p>1. 99%, 2. 80%, 3. 95%, 4. .1%, 5. 5%, 6. 5%, 7. 10%, 8. 80%, 9. 90%, 10. 100%, Total: .0000135432%, around one-in-one-billion, which seems about right to me</p> <p>"Brain science has workable input/output models of relevant brain cell types." In the words of Tyler, I'm just not there. And "Usual freezing quality preserved relevant model-needed details" seems pretty outlandish to me, too, but I say 5% to be deferential.</p> <p>@jgm: You are basically saying that conjecture 3 has a low probability, but I think it is one of the most likely of the claims. If revival becomes possible, and the cost of revival is low, I can think of many reasons why people would be revived.</p> Robin’s 10 conditional probability items make sense to me. I just think he is far too optimistic about some of the probabilities. I say:

1. 99%, 2. 80%, 3. 95%, 4. .1%, 5. 5%, 6. 5%, 7. 10%, 8. 80%, 9. 90%, 10. 100%, Total: .0000135432%, around one-in-one-billion, which seems about right to me

“Brain science has workable input/output models of relevant brain cell types.” In the words of Tyler, I’m just not there. And “Usual freezing quality preserved relevant model-needed details” seems pretty outlandish to me, too, but I say 5% to be deferential.

@jgm: You are basically saying that conjecture 3 has a low probability, but I think it is one of the most likely of the claims. If revival becomes possible, and the cost of revival is low, I can think of many reasons why people would be revived.

]]> By: SUR http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385892 SUR Sun, 22 Mar 2009 20:33:09 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385892 Someone might consider undertaking a more rigorous, better conditioned analysis of cryonics' NPV. Introducing and then taking the expectation on stochastic processes, while perhaps also permitting modest risk aversion that biases the NPV value upward taken as utility. (Two NPVs respectively.) Something relatively short, and not so highly conditioned such that its' results remain minimally meaningful, supposing this is achievable with given information and time horizons. Finally, this CBA-esque calculation ought to be motivated so that a reader can vaguely appreciate the author's own methods and biases. Noise may overwhelm signal as others' have claimed, but at the margins we may be better informed by the exercise. Someone might consider undertaking a more rigorous, better conditioned analysis of cryonics’ NPV. Introducing and then taking the expectation on stochastic processes, while perhaps also permitting modest risk aversion that biases the NPV value upward taken as utility. (Two NPVs respectively.)

Something relatively short, and not so highly conditioned such that its’ results remain minimally meaningful, supposing this is achievable with given information and time horizons.

Finally, this CBA-esque calculation ought to be motivated so that a reader can vaguely appreciate the author’s own methods and biases.

Noise may overwhelm signal as others’ have claimed, but at the margins we may be better informed by the exercise.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385891 Robin Hanson Sun, 22 Mar 2009 13:39:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385891 Tyler posts that this comment thread is <a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/03/assorted-links-12.html" rel="nofollow">excellent</a>. :) Tyler posts that this comment thread is excellent. :)

]]> By: Andy McKenzie http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385890 Andy McKenzie Sun, 22 Mar 2009 05:19:32 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385890 afu: Agreed, but surely there is some potential way to reverse these effects using a computer algorithm? Look for the connections that have been altered in these sorts of situations in the past and make the necessary adjustments before turning the upload "on". As far as I'm concerned, #4 and #6 are the bottlenecking steps. What kind of resolution is necessary? That was one of the main questions considered in the "roadmap": http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/Reports/2008-3.pdf, and they obviously couldn't answer it adequately. afu: Agreed, but surely there is some potential way to reverse these effects using a computer algorithm? Look for the connections that have been altered in these sorts of situations in the past and make the necessary adjustments before turning the upload “on”.

As far as I’m concerned, #4 and #6 are the bottlenecking steps. What kind of resolution is necessary? That was one of the main questions considered in the “roadmap”: http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/Reports/2008-3.pdf, and they obviously couldn’t answer it adequately.

]]> By: afu http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385889 afu Thu, 19 Mar 2009 16:36:19 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385889 The likelihood of an anoxic brain injury is incredibly high at death. This makes me doubt if the probability of reconstructing the same consciousness from a frozen rises above 0. There is way to much noise in the system to make even make it worthwhile to try. The likelihood of an anoxic brain injury is incredibly high at death. This makes me doubt if the probability of reconstructing the same consciousness from a frozen rises above 0. There is way to much noise in the system to make even make it worthwhile to try.

]]> By: jgm http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385888 jgm Thu, 19 Mar 2009 04:34:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385888 Robin, even if we thought that the probability of successful cryopreservation were 100%, it seems unlikely to be cost-effective. If you are right about emulations, the future doesn't need us: it will be cheaper to add additional life-years to the population without thawing us. Compared to cryonics, investments in existential risk reduction and even in global health would seem to have a lower cost per life-year saved/created. Do you believe that cryonics is the best use of your money and, if so, why? Robin, even if we thought that the probability of successful cryopreservation were 100%, it seems unlikely to be cost-effective. If you are right about emulations, the future doesn’t need us: it will be cheaper to add additional life-years to the population without thawing us. Compared to cryonics, investments in existential risk reduction and even in global health would seem to have a lower cost per life-year saved/created. Do you believe that cryonics is the best use of your money and, if so, why?

]]> By: sternhammer http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385887 sternhammer Thu, 19 Mar 2009 03:09:55 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385887 Anonymous, Thanks, I didn't know that. That's helpful. So I would update my estimate of surviving issue #2 from .1296 to .162. SInce I have a hard time estimating 3-8 I think I will follow Peco for those, since he seems to have independently estimated each one. That gets me to .00013, without considering the risk of civilization collapsing or the abstract "what is existence?" ones in 9 & 10. Anonymous,

Thanks, I didn’t know that. That’s helpful.

So I would update my estimate of surviving issue #2 from .1296 to .162.

SInce I have a hard time estimating 3-8 I think I will follow Peco for those, since he seems to have independently estimated each one. That gets me to .00013, without considering the risk of civilization collapsing or the abstract “what is existence?” ones in 9 & 10.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385886 Robin Hanson Thu, 19 Mar 2009 02:35:46 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html#comment-385886 Peter, I delayed responding to you until I could review that chapter again. It found that people asked to directly estimate aggregate events did better than people asked to estimate component events, even when they were forced to normalize their estimates. A striking finding, but just not the same as estimating a event by itself versus via component conditional probabilities. Peter, I delayed responding to you until I could review that chapter again. It found that people asked to directly estimate aggregate events did better than people asked to estimate component events, even when they were forced to normalize their estimates. A striking finding, but just not the same as estimating a event by itself versus via component conditional probabilities.

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