Comments on: Be sure to mind when you change your mind

By: On Revisionist Memory | The Thinker

On Revisionist Memory | The Thinker — Sat, 02 Jul 2011 18:38:55 +0000

[...] This article on Overcoming Bias talks about people changing their opinion, then recalling that it was their opinion all along. [...]

By: On Revisionist Memory

On Revisionist Memory — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 14:16:41 +0000

[...] This article on Overcoming Bias talks about people changing their opinion, then recalling that it was their opinion all along. [...]

By: angulimala

angulimala — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 15:50:03 +0000

I have never changed my mind. I have discovered, however, that I didn’t always know what I really believed until much later.

For example, I have always opposed Bush. I just didn’t know that when I voted for him in 2000. It took a few more years to realize I had never, ever, supported him.

[ /snark ]

Seriously though, I see this kind of reasoning a lot. The people who changed their minds on busing probably felt like this too. “I was always anti-busing deep-down. I just didn’t know that during the time I advocated for busing” and likewise.

It strikes me as similar to to the “No True Scotsman” fallacy.

By: Paul Crowley

Paul Crowley — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 12:10:36 +0000

I believe your most valid opinions are formed from actual experiences in the gut @JosephineSouthern: That's because there are more nerve endings in your gut than there are in your head.

By: wien s

wien s — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 00:22:17 +0000

Raivo Pommer
raimo1@hot.ee

Österreich Krise

Österreichs Ruf als Schuldner steht auf dem Prüfstand. Die Alpenrepublik will in dieser Woche ihre bis 2014 laufende und 2 Milliarden Euro schwere Staatsanleihe um eine halbe Milliarde Euro aufstocken. Dieser Betrag sollte leicht auf dem Anleihemarkt einzusammeln sein. Allerdings ist Österreich ins Gerede gekommen. Das liegt an der tiefen Rezession in weiten Teilen Osteuropas. Dort haben österreichische Banken Forderungen von 280 Milliarden Dollar – eine Zahl, die dem österreichischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts nahekommt. Wegen der wachsenden Schwierigkeiten osteuropäischer Schuldner, ihre Kredite zurückzuzahlen, sind die Bedenken der Anleger mit Blick auf die Kreditwürdigkeit Österreichs und seiner Banken in den vergangenen Tagen gewachsen.

Ein Indiz für die Skepsis ist die Renditedifferenz zwischen österreichischen Staatsanleihen und deutschen Bundesanleihen. Noch nie war sie so groß wie derzeit. Für zehnjährige Laufzeiten zum Beispiel beträgt die Differenz fast 1,4 Prozentpunkte. Bundesanleihen rentieren mit 2,9 Prozent, österreichische mit immerhin 4,3 Prozent. Auf dem zu Übertreibungen neigenden Markt für Kreditausfallversicherungen (CDS) ist die Diskrepanz zwischen Österreich und Deutschland sogar noch größer. Die Aufstockung der österreichischen Staatsanleihe ist daher keinesfalls Routine.

By: Mikko

Mikko — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 13:08:14 +0000

Perhaps there are two ways to change your mind. In first one you realize that both previous theories can be reconciled into one unified theory. In second one you replace one theory with another one.

By: PJ Eby

PJ Eby — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 15:49:36 +0000

The amnesia isn’t an independent defense mechanism; it’s a side-effect of the fact that memory isn’t built to be a record of facts. Memory is a database used to estimate probabilities. So once you’ve updated data that’s relevant to your future predictions, there’s no reason to store the old predictive model — it would just get in the way.

By: JosephineSouthern

JosephineSouthern — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:49:55 +0000

I believe your most valid opinions are formed from actual experiences in the gut. That is the point of experiencing life as opposed to siting on the sidelines, and getting your information from highly persuasive arguments of others.

By: Dan

Dan — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:46:44 +0000

Maybe the “amnesia” is a defense mechanism, otherwise you WON’T be able to change your mind(or be extremely difficult)…After all the contrary opinion is stupid, wrong or even immoral, and if you explicitly remember having held it, you acknowledge all that bad attributes as well which will make shifting opinions and beliefs very difficult.

By: Stuart Armstrong

Stuart Armstrong — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:34:11 +0000

Like Thomas, this is the primary reason I blog.

Blogging is a good compromise version of this – you avoid anchoring biases simply because you are producing so many opinions a day, that your old posts are quickly forgotten until they are brought to your attention at a later date. Not true for major, well remembered posts, but for the others…

To all those who blog, do you find there is an anchoring bias for your minor opinions?