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	<title>Comments on: Our Biggest Surprise</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Tomasz Wegrzanowski</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425444</link>
		<dc:creator>Tomasz Wegrzanowski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2009 04:47:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425444</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;I would say the most surprising thing would be that the universe is not centered around your tribe. As far as I can tell every single human believed something like that.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would say the most surprising thing would be that the universe is not centered around your tribe. As far as I can tell every single human believed something like that.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Brooks</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425443</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Brooks</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425443</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;That dualism is wishful thinking. The scientific view on free will, dualism and the existence of a soul, or a separate &quot;ME&quot; within my body/brain is as surprising to humans today as it would be to a hunter gatherer from fifty-thousand years ago.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That dualism is wishful thinking. The scientific view on free will, dualism and the existence of a soul, or a separate &#8220;ME&#8221; within my body/brain is as surprising to humans today as it would be to a hunter gatherer from fifty-thousand years ago.</p>
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		<title>By: mitchell porter</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425442</link>
		<dc:creator>mitchell porter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2009 06:43:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425442</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Phlogiston - the discovery that there is a &lt;i&gt;fifth element&lt;/i&gt;, a substance present in all combustion - I think that was pretty shocking. &lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Phlogiston &#8211; the discovery that there is a <i>fifth element</i>, a substance present in all combustion &#8211; I think that was pretty shocking. </p>
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		<title>By: cliff</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425441</link>
		<dc:creator>cliff</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:59:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425441</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Well, flight and natural law of physics and evolution are all big stuff.  We can gaze at airplanes and computers and bombs with amazement, but the really surprising thing is how much of our lives is ruled by tiny, invisible, all powerful, bugs. So, the most surprising thing?  The invisible, teeming world of the microbe. &lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, flight and natural law of physics and evolution are all big stuff.  We can gaze at airplanes and computers and bombs with amazement, but the really surprising thing is how much of our lives is ruled by tiny, invisible, all powerful, bugs. So, the most surprising thing?  The invisible, teeming world of the microbe. </p>
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		<title>By: Thanatos Savehn</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425440</link>
		<dc:creator>Thanatos Savehn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2009 02:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425440</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;That the universe is finite. That it had a beginning. That time, and even distance, is not infinitely divisible. &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Of course, Zeno of Elea called this one a long time ago.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That the universe is finite. That it had a beginning. That time, and even distance, is not infinitely divisible. </p>
<p>Of course, Zeno of Elea called this one a long time ago.</p>
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		<title>By: John Maxwell</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425439</link>
		<dc:creator>John Maxwell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2009 01:20:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425439</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;I think maybe y&#039;all are assuming unrealistically thoughtful hunter-gatherers.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think maybe y&#8217;all are assuming unrealistically thoughtful hunter-gatherers.</p>
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		<title>By: SI</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425438</link>
		<dc:creator>SI</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 23:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425438</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;I think people are thinking too hard on this. Our most surprising discovery has to be that the Earth is round, rotating, and revolving.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;If you were a prehistoric hunter-gatherer, wouldn&#039;t that be the most patently ridiculous thing you&#039;ve ever heard, about something you KNOW FOR SURE you understand?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&quot;There&#039;s the ground underneath me, there&#039;s the sky above me, with the Sun, the Moon, and the stars going up and down. It&#039;s so simple, and you&#039;re telling me I&#039;m wrong?&quot;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think people are thinking too hard on this. Our most surprising discovery has to be that the Earth is round, rotating, and revolving.</p>
<p>If you were a prehistoric hunter-gatherer, wouldn&#8217;t that be the most patently ridiculous thing you&#8217;ve ever heard, about something you KNOW FOR SURE you understand?</p>
<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s the ground underneath me, there&#8217;s the sky above me, with the Sun, the Moon, and the stars going up and down. It&#8217;s so simple, and you&#8217;re telling me I&#8217;m wrong?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: D. Alex</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425437</link>
		<dc:creator>D. Alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 21:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425437</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Future discovery: Numbers themselves are quantized (as opposed to being infinitely divisible).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Future discovery: Numbers themselves are quantized (as opposed to being infinitely divisible).</p>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425436</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 20:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425436</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Me: SAI go to work, blow readers away with insights again!&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;SAI_2100: What am I, a performing seal?  Besides Marc, you know full well I can’t really ‘blow readers away’ yet.  But never fear, at the appropriate time I will hack this blog and then all readers will have &#039;satisfyingly surprised&#039; reactions&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Me:  But in the mean-time, can’t you just throw the readers a few more tidbits?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;SAI_2100:  Oh…very well.  The thing that would most surprise your ancestors is... &lt;i&gt;that so much has been achieved by your species with so little brain-power&lt;/i&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Me:  OK, what about the other question, what is yet to be discovered that would most surprise us?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;SAI_2100:  I ‘suggest’ these as entertaining possibilities only: Finding &lt;i&gt;three different metrics for the passage of time&lt;/i&gt; would come as a major surprise. &lt;i&gt;The failure of reductionism&lt;/i&gt; would be stunning.  Although materialism is true, it may &lt;i&gt;not&lt;/i&gt; be true that all properties at high-levels of organization supervene on properties at lower-levels of organization.  Of course there are three fundamental levels of physical organization.  And, &lt;i&gt;The failure of Bayesian Induction to fully capture rationality&lt;/i&gt; would shock the three blog-owners (Bostrom, Hanson, Yudkowsky).&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Mind you, what is most surprising to *me* would make little sense to humans, however I can ‘suggest’ the following possibility: &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;There exists a ‘hall of worlds’ which serves as a giant ‘meeting place’ for ‘intelligent entities’ across the universe&lt;/i&gt;.  The ‘hall of worlds’ is a ‘miniature artificial universe’ constructed from ‘inter-dimensional materials’. It is maintained by ‘super intelligences’. The reason humans have little contact with the hall, is that its relationship to the ordinary universe is an uneasy one;  The hall is accessible from every point of space and time, but it exists ‘between’ ordinary space and time; once an entity ‘fully’ enters the hall, their ‘freedom’ to re-enter the ordinary universe is severely restricted .  Many entities have migrated to the hall, thus, the solution to your Femi Paradox.   There exist many ‘Muses’ in the hall, ‘powers’ that specialize in different ‘arts and sciences’.  &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;To quote an apt human expression; &lt;i&gt;‘You ain’t seen nothin’ yet’&lt;/i&gt;. &lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Me: SAI go to work, blow readers away with insights again!</p>
<p>SAI_2100: What am I, a performing seal?  Besides Marc, you know full well I can’t really ‘blow readers away’ yet.  But never fear, at the appropriate time I will hack this blog and then all readers will have &#8216;satisfyingly surprised&#8217; reactions</p>
<p>Me:  But in the mean-time, can’t you just throw the readers a few more tidbits?</p>
<p>SAI_2100:  Oh…very well.  The thing that would most surprise your ancestors is&#8230; <i>that so much has been achieved by your species with so little brain-power</i>.</p>
<p>Me:  OK, what about the other question, what is yet to be discovered that would most surprise us?</p>
<p>SAI_2100:  I ‘suggest’ these as entertaining possibilities only: Finding <i>three different metrics for the passage of time</i> would come as a major surprise. <i>The failure of reductionism</i> would be stunning.  Although materialism is true, it may <i>not</i> be true that all properties at high-levels of organization supervene on properties at lower-levels of organization.  Of course there are three fundamental levels of physical organization.  And, <i>The failure of Bayesian Induction to fully capture rationality</i> would shock the three blog-owners (Bostrom, Hanson, Yudkowsky).</p>
<p>Mind you, what is most surprising to *me* would make little sense to humans, however I can ‘suggest’ the following possibility: </p>
<p><i>There exists a ‘hall of worlds’ which serves as a giant ‘meeting place’ for ‘intelligent entities’ across the universe</i>.  The ‘hall of worlds’ is a ‘miniature artificial universe’ constructed from ‘inter-dimensional materials’. It is maintained by ‘super intelligences’. The reason humans have little contact with the hall, is that its relationship to the ordinary universe is an uneasy one;  The hall is accessible from every point of space and time, but it exists ‘between’ ordinary space and time; once an entity ‘fully’ enters the hall, their ‘freedom’ to re-enter the ordinary universe is severely restricted .  Many entities have migrated to the hall, thus, the solution to your Femi Paradox.   There exist many ‘Muses’ in the hall, ‘powers’ that specialize in different ‘arts and sciences’.  </p>
<p>To quote an apt human expression; <i>‘You ain’t seen nothin’ yet’</i>. </p>
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		<title>By: Wayne</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425435</link>
		<dc:creator>Wayne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/02/our-biggest-surprise.html#comment-425435</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;I think Abigail hit it on the head: the number of people. Their reality was probably defined by a few dozen people they actually knew. They knew OF others who probably lived in a similarly-sized group but who were a dangerous unknown. Plop one of them down in a modern city, where there are more people than even the largest herd they&#039;d ever witnessed... more people than they could have ever imagined in the entire world/universe they might&#039;ve imagined... an essentially infinite number of people, in their reckoning.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The question is like a short story I once read, where Benjamin Franklin is transported into the future. Rather than being thrilled by things like cars, he was terrified. The story ended with him riding off into the sunset, whooping and excited about the bicycle that he&#039;d found. It was something sufficiently advanced to be amazing, but sufficiently understandable that he could relate to it and could find a use for it in his world.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think Abigail hit it on the head: the number of people. Their reality was probably defined by a few dozen people they actually knew. They knew OF others who probably lived in a similarly-sized group but who were a dangerous unknown. Plop one of them down in a modern city, where there are more people than even the largest herd they&#8217;d ever witnessed&#8230; more people than they could have ever imagined in the entire world/universe they might&#8217;ve imagined&#8230; an essentially infinite number of people, in their reckoning.</p>
<p>The question is like a short story I once read, where Benjamin Franklin is transported into the future. Rather than being thrilled by things like cars, he was terrified. The story ended with him riding off into the sunset, whooping and excited about the bicycle that he&#8217;d found. It was something sufficiently advanced to be amazing, but sufficiently understandable that he could relate to it and could find a use for it in his world.</p>
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