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	<title>Comments on: Disagreeing About Doubt</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Mary</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-528867</link>
		<dc:creator>Mary</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Oct 2011 00:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-528867</guid>
		<description>I just happened to see this movie.   Your thoughts about douby were articulate and inciteful.  That is what I took away from the movie - the doubt that we often face in our ives, and perhaps the way this doubt waxes and wanes...  Our judgmental nature was also examined during this film....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just happened to see this movie.   Your thoughts about douby were articulate and inciteful.  That is what I took away from the movie &#8211; the doubt that we often face in our ives, and perhaps the way this doubt waxes and wanes&#8230;  Our judgmental nature was also examined during this film&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: John Jones</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389283</link>
		<dc:creator>John Jones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 03:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389283</guid>
		<description>This movie also left me with a desire to know the truth.  I personally had to struggle with a inclination to protect the innocent, versus the known biases that occur because of the disgusting misdeeds made by SOME individual priests.  In this movie, I couldn&#039;t come to a conclusion one way or another as to the guilt of the priest.  I honestly can&#039;t see how any of the people who submitted the above &quot;guilty verdicts&quot; did either.  It literally was a tossup.  Any of the above statements linking guilt could be just as easily explained. On the other hand, any potential abuse couldn&#039;t be exonerated by facts either.

Whether the priest or the boy was gay is irrelevant to whether or not abuse took place.  In the U.S. court of law someone is found guilty if all members of the jury are confident BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT that they in fact believe the person to be guilty.  Of all those privy to the matter (the nuns, the monsignor, etc), only Meryl Streep&#039;s character was confident beyond all doubt that guilt was evident (until the end of course in which the projection of her actual doubt was ambiguous).

Some could say (as some did comment above) that the priest gave less than transparent answers to the nun during her line of questioning.  While some could perceive that as indirectly admitting guilt, it could also have been true that the boy confessed circumstances of his own life to the priest in confidence by which the priest was bound not to reveal.  Some also claim (as did Streep&#039;s character) that guilt was inherent due to the priest&#039;s reluctance to fight the matter and accept the &quot;sentence&quot; granted him by the nun.  However it could be argued that the priest chose to avoid destroying his reputation and sending an entire parish into turmoil and &quot;DOUBT&quot;.

Grant&#039;s response above in my opinion is disingenuous and alludes to guilt based on the fact that it would make the move &quot;beautiful&quot; and otherwise frivolous.  I disagree completely in that the movie is already a masterpiece given that is has generated so much thought and discussion as is evident through this thread.

The bottom line is that every scene in the movie was carefully orchestrated so as to promote ambiguity and ambivalence.  We can all have opinions on the actual guilt or innocence of the main character, but any conclusion that is drawn is devoid of evidence (including actual testimony of the boy) and made with subjectivity and/or internal biases.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This movie also left me with a desire to know the truth.  I personally had to struggle with a inclination to protect the innocent, versus the known biases that occur because of the disgusting misdeeds made by SOME individual priests.  In this movie, I couldn&#8217;t come to a conclusion one way or another as to the guilt of the priest.  I honestly can&#8217;t see how any of the people who submitted the above &#8220;guilty verdicts&#8221; did either.  It literally was a tossup.  Any of the above statements linking guilt could be just as easily explained. On the other hand, any potential abuse couldn&#8217;t be exonerated by facts either.</p>
<p>Whether the priest or the boy was gay is irrelevant to whether or not abuse took place.  In the U.S. court of law someone is found guilty if all members of the jury are confident BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT that they in fact believe the person to be guilty.  Of all those privy to the matter (the nuns, the monsignor, etc), only Meryl Streep&#8217;s character was confident beyond all doubt that guilt was evident (until the end of course in which the projection of her actual doubt was ambiguous).</p>
<p>Some could say (as some did comment above) that the priest gave less than transparent answers to the nun during her line of questioning.  While some could perceive that as indirectly admitting guilt, it could also have been true that the boy confessed circumstances of his own life to the priest in confidence by which the priest was bound not to reveal.  Some also claim (as did Streep&#8217;s character) that guilt was inherent due to the priest&#8217;s reluctance to fight the matter and accept the &#8220;sentence&#8221; granted him by the nun.  However it could be argued that the priest chose to avoid destroying his reputation and sending an entire parish into turmoil and &#8220;DOUBT&#8221;.</p>
<p>Grant&#8217;s response above in my opinion is disingenuous and alludes to guilt based on the fact that it would make the move &#8220;beautiful&#8221; and otherwise frivolous.  I disagree completely in that the movie is already a masterpiece given that is has generated so much thought and discussion as is evident through this thread.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that every scene in the movie was carefully orchestrated so as to promote ambiguity and ambivalence.  We can all have opinions on the actual guilt or innocence of the main character, but any conclusion that is drawn is devoid of evidence (including actual testimony of the boy) and made with subjectivity and/or internal biases.</p>
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		<title>By: Aron</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389282</link>
		<dc:creator>Aron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 16:48:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389282</guid>
		<description>I finished the movie favoring innocence. None of the evidence was particularly strong and the prior is against it. The boy&#039;s mother didn&#039;t indicate knowing anything, just indicated that she&#039;d prefer sexual molestation to the violence of the boy&#039;s father or his public school peers which was how she saw the choices. Flynn was set up as a rule-breaker, or progressive, who defied some of the traditional rules. He would have secular songs at xmas, make things more tolerant rather than disciplinarian. In this vein, he concealed the boy&#039;s wine incident much like he concealed the truth at a prior parish, for what he interpreted to be the &#039;right thing to do&#039; which is how he explained things in his farewell speech, and even despite &#039;there being no thinkable reason why&#039; as he explains to Streep&#039;s character.

I thought several times during the film that the filmmakers had not made his guilt sufficiently plausible, if ambiguity was their goal. Though I think ultimately, they need it to tilt towards innocence because that is maximal contrast to the determined certainty of guilt from Beuvier.

Streep&#039;s character is motivated most likely by a strong personality turn after her husband&#039;s death in WWII. She was apparently NOT a nun before that. The standard conflict there is &#039;if there is a god, why does he do such horrible things to people so close to me?&#039; She is wrestling with her desire to have all things be ordered and have meaning, including her husband&#039;s death. At some level her certainty which defied the actual evidence in the case of Flynn triggers her tearful episode at the end where she acknowledges that there may not be the certainty of a god.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I finished the movie favoring innocence. None of the evidence was particularly strong and the prior is against it. The boy&#8217;s mother didn&#8217;t indicate knowing anything, just indicated that she&#8217;d prefer sexual molestation to the violence of the boy&#8217;s father or his public school peers which was how she saw the choices. Flynn was set up as a rule-breaker, or progressive, who defied some of the traditional rules. He would have secular songs at xmas, make things more tolerant rather than disciplinarian. In this vein, he concealed the boy&#8217;s wine incident much like he concealed the truth at a prior parish, for what he interpreted to be the &#8216;right thing to do&#8217; which is how he explained things in his farewell speech, and even despite &#8216;there being no thinkable reason why&#8217; as he explains to Streep&#8217;s character.</p>
<p>I thought several times during the film that the filmmakers had not made his guilt sufficiently plausible, if ambiguity was their goal. Though I think ultimately, they need it to tilt towards innocence because that is maximal contrast to the determined certainty of guilt from Beuvier.</p>
<p>Streep&#8217;s character is motivated most likely by a strong personality turn after her husband&#8217;s death in WWII. She was apparently NOT a nun before that. The standard conflict there is &#8216;if there is a god, why does he do such horrible things to people so close to me?&#8217; She is wrestling with her desire to have all things be ordered and have meaning, including her husband&#8217;s death. At some level her certainty which defied the actual evidence in the case of Flynn triggers her tearful episode at the end where she acknowledges that there may not be the certainty of a god.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonas</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389281</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 19:18:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389281</guid>
		<description>Which movie is the conversation about? Seems pretty weird.




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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which movie is the conversation about? Seems pretty weird.</p>
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		<title>By: Emile</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389280</link>
		<dc:creator>Emile</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 17:55:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389280</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s a very interesting hypothesis, and indeed I don&#039;t see any better explanation of the white altar boy (what&#039;s his name?) getting all upset when coming back in class. That could explain why Donald&#039;s mother doesn&#039;t flip out when Sister Aloysius talks about him being in an improper relation with Father Flynn, and the fact that she seems to expect the blame to fall on Donald and not on Doctor Flynn. However, I think I remember David&#039;s mom saying something about how they should go against Doctor Flynn - she just didn&#039;t seem to think it would work, because he would be protected etc. If she knew he wasn&#039;t to blame and was only protecting her son, I would expect her to be more reluctant to go against him.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s a very interesting hypothesis, and indeed I don&#8217;t see any better explanation of the white altar boy (what&#8217;s his name?) getting all upset when coming back in class. That could explain why Donald&#8217;s mother doesn&#8217;t flip out when Sister Aloysius talks about him being in an improper relation with Father Flynn, and the fact that she seems to expect the blame to fall on Donald and not on Doctor Flynn. However, I think I remember David&#8217;s mom saying something about how they should go against Doctor Flynn &#8211; she just didn&#8217;t seem to think it would work, because he would be protected etc. If she knew he wasn&#8217;t to blame and was only protecting her son, I would expect her to be more reluctant to go against him.</p>
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		<title>By: Thomas</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389279</link>
		<dc:creator>Thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:15:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389279</guid>
		<description>After seeing this film, I am still torn.

One key piece of evidence leading me toward his evidence: when the boy is sent from Sister James&#039;s class to the office, and he comes back upset and swearing, after seeing Viola Davis in the office. This tells me something: I think perhaps Hoffman found the two boys committing sexual acts at some point, and drinking the whine.. Maybe all of Hoffman&#039;s actions in this film are to cover up their relationship. He would rather have just Streep think he&#039;s a sexual preditor than have EVERYONE know these two boys were having sex; it would ruin their lives. And most of his actions can explain this-- His constant &quot;there are things you don&#039;t know!&quot; and his covering up for his actions without ever explaining anything. And, I&#039;m sure the boy would take being kicked out of the alter boys over having everyone know this. And, perhaps his mother (Davis) knows what really happened too! So, she&#039;s accepting his punishment so she can hide the truth from her husband. She also keeps telling Streep to leave it alone, let it be, my husband would beat my son if he found out the truth. Is this a possibility??

But, the one thing that pushes me back the other way, is the incident where Streep supposedly called his old school. Having heard this, Hoffman is upset and finally gives in-- this implies that he did do something at his old school. BUT!!! Perhaps he sees this as his way out. Maybe if he acts as thogh this has proved him guilty, and pretends that he did something at his old school to completely satisfy Streep, he can resign without having it all come out. This could be his way of ending it, and ensuring that the truth doesn&#039;t get out.

Just my alternative explaination! Having written it all down, I think this is the way I will interpret the film; he is innocent, he is protecting the relationship between the two boys. The seen where the boy swears and goes back to the classroom is just so weird! And seemingly out of place.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After seeing this film, I am still torn.</p>
<p>One key piece of evidence leading me toward his evidence: when the boy is sent from Sister James&#8217;s class to the office, and he comes back upset and swearing, after seeing Viola Davis in the office. This tells me something: I think perhaps Hoffman found the two boys committing sexual acts at some point, and drinking the whine.. Maybe all of Hoffman&#8217;s actions in this film are to cover up their relationship. He would rather have just Streep think he&#8217;s a sexual preditor than have EVERYONE know these two boys were having sex; it would ruin their lives. And most of his actions can explain this&#8211; His constant &#8220;there are things you don&#8217;t know!&#8221; and his covering up for his actions without ever explaining anything. And, I&#8217;m sure the boy would take being kicked out of the alter boys over having everyone know this. And, perhaps his mother (Davis) knows what really happened too! So, she&#8217;s accepting his punishment so she can hide the truth from her husband. She also keeps telling Streep to leave it alone, let it be, my husband would beat my son if he found out the truth. Is this a possibility??</p>
<p>But, the one thing that pushes me back the other way, is the incident where Streep supposedly called his old school. Having heard this, Hoffman is upset and finally gives in&#8211; this implies that he did do something at his old school. BUT!!! Perhaps he sees this as his way out. Maybe if he acts as thogh this has proved him guilty, and pretends that he did something at his old school to completely satisfy Streep, he can resign without having it all come out. This could be his way of ending it, and ensuring that the truth doesn&#8217;t get out.</p>
<p>Just my alternative explaination! Having written it all down, I think this is the way I will interpret the film; he is innocent, he is protecting the relationship between the two boys. The seen where the boy swears and goes back to the classroom is just so weird! And seemingly out of place.</p>
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		<title>By: gabriella</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389278</link>
		<dc:creator>gabriella</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:21:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389278</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d like to address the fact that when people watch the movie and think of his guilt they always implicate the young black boy, when in fact it seems as though the young blonde boy is probably the one he has been molesting. Throughout the movie their reactions towards each other are very strange. The boy is always afraid/angry with him. In the end of the movie you see the boy smile when he sees the father leaving; one of those kind of smiles of relief. The principal tells Sister James that the boy would do ANYTHING including give himself a bloody nose to get away from the school. He is seen smoking a cigarette just like the priest as well. On the other hand, the young black boy probably had a lot in common with the priest, at least in the priest&#039;s eyes and tugged at a certain heart-string with him. They both were gay and hiding that secret, they both felt alone and hiding lies, etc., etc. He more likely than not was a true protector of the boy, and when he left the young boy was truly sad and distraught. In the end, sister Aloysius does not waiver from her belief that he was guilty, she is one-hundred percent sure of this, but she does doubt her faith which she had previously told the priest that she was willing to wager on getting him to confess, which probably began her questioning it in the first place.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d like to address the fact that when people watch the movie and think of his guilt they always implicate the young black boy, when in fact it seems as though the young blonde boy is probably the one he has been molesting. Throughout the movie their reactions towards each other are very strange. The boy is always afraid/angry with him. In the end of the movie you see the boy smile when he sees the father leaving; one of those kind of smiles of relief. The principal tells Sister James that the boy would do ANYTHING including give himself a bloody nose to get away from the school. He is seen smoking a cigarette just like the priest as well. On the other hand, the young black boy probably had a lot in common with the priest, at least in the priest&#8217;s eyes and tugged at a certain heart-string with him. They both were gay and hiding that secret, they both felt alone and hiding lies, etc., etc. He more likely than not was a true protector of the boy, and when he left the young boy was truly sad and distraught. In the end, sister Aloysius does not waiver from her belief that he was guilty, she is one-hundred percent sure of this, but she does doubt her faith which she had previously told the priest that she was willing to wager on getting him to confess, which probably began her questioning it in the first place.</p>
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		<title>By: Ben Jones</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389277</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Jones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:02:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389277</guid>
		<description>Consider the question &#039;in what proportion of all the possible universes wherein every scene in the movie &lt;i&gt;actually happened&lt;/i&gt; is Flynn guilty?&#039; Is this an isomorphic question? If so, does it yield different estimates from what you might think about the movie itself?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Consider the question &#8216;in what proportion of all the possible universes wherein every scene in the movie <i>actually happened</i> is Flynn guilty?&#8217; Is this an isomorphic question? If so, does it yield different estimates from what you might think about the movie itself?</p>
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		<title>By: Nicole</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389276</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicole</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:45:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389276</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t have the time to type this out with much conviction or persuasion, but I will quickly state my view.  Kip, I disagree with you.  The movie is more profound if you take the stance of the priest being innocent.  The priest being guilty is a story we have all heard before (in the news, or such).  The priest being WRONGLY accused, however, is a different outlook.  I feel the movie&#039;s moral lesson was not whether or not the priest did anything wrong, but that the quick and unfounded judgment passed by the nun can have terrible consequences.  I viewed Doubt as a modern-day &#039;Crucible&#039;.  The nun was on a witch hunt.  She had no proof, and yet was steadfast in her belief that the priest molested the boy.  Remember Father Flynn&#039;s sermon on gossip and the feathers?  That is the moral of the story.  By even whispering such an accusation, his reputation is ruined.  You can never gather all the feathers again.  He had no way of proving his innocence.  Someone could accuse me of that and what could I possibly do to prove otherwise?  The lesson is to be very careful of what you say of others.  Without proof, you can ruin lives irreparably.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t have the time to type this out with much conviction or persuasion, but I will quickly state my view.  Kip, I disagree with you.  The movie is more profound if you take the stance of the priest being innocent.  The priest being guilty is a story we have all heard before (in the news, or such).  The priest being WRONGLY accused, however, is a different outlook.  I feel the movie&#8217;s moral lesson was not whether or not the priest did anything wrong, but that the quick and unfounded judgment passed by the nun can have terrible consequences.  I viewed Doubt as a modern-day &#8216;Crucible&#8217;.  The nun was on a witch hunt.  She had no proof, and yet was steadfast in her belief that the priest molested the boy.  Remember Father Flynn&#8217;s sermon on gossip and the feathers?  That is the moral of the story.  By even whispering such an accusation, his reputation is ruined.  You can never gather all the feathers again.  He had no way of proving his innocence.  Someone could accuse me of that and what could I possibly do to prove otherwise?  The lesson is to be very careful of what you say of others.  Without proof, you can ruin lives irreparably.</p>
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		<title>By: Eric Crampton</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389275</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Crampton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:46:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2009/01/disagreeing-about-doubt.html#comment-389275</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s a movie now?  Saw the stage production a couple years back... recall setting p about 0.3 prior to seeing the priest&#039;s reaction to the nun&#039;s claiming to have called prior parishes, then about 0.6 after.  Twas very good as a stage production...will have to see the movie.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a movie now?  Saw the stage production a couple years back&#8230; recall setting p about 0.3 prior to seeing the priest&#8217;s reaction to the nun&#8217;s claiming to have called prior parishes, then about 0.6 after.  Twas very good as a stage production&#8230;will have to see the movie.</p>
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