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	<title>Comments on: Wrapping Up</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 11 Feb 2012 21:45:57 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Distrusting Drama</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-589294</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Distrusting Drama</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Dec 2011 13:22:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-589294</guid>
		<description>[...] Eliezer&#8217;s AI foom estimates; I&#8217;ve explained my reasoning most recently here, here, and here.  But since we both post on disagreement meta-issues, I should discuss some of my [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Eliezer&#8217;s AI foom estimates; I&#8217;ve explained my reasoning most recently here, here, and here.  But since we both post on disagreement meta-issues, I should discuss some of my [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Will Pearson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390914</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Pearson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 19:11:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390914</guid>
		<description>We have an ontology that can represent anything, it is called a language that is turing complete...

We even have lots of people encoding knowledge in it they are called programmers.

Integration is another problem, but the brain is not completely integrated. We  need to develop programs that can understand the knowledge encoded in other programs, and programs to maintain the knowledge. Some way of constraining the system, while changing the internal programs, so that it has some purpose would probably also be useful.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have an ontology that can represent anything, it is called a language that is turing complete&#8230;</p>
<p>We even have lots of people encoding knowledge in it they are called programmers.</p>
<p>Integration is another problem, but the brain is not completely integrated. We  need to develop programs that can understand the knowledge encoded in other programs, and programs to maintain the knowledge. Some way of constraining the system, while changing the internal programs, so that it has some purpose would probably also be useful.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390913</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 18:37:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390913</guid>
		<description>&lt;BLOCKQUOTE&gt;&lt;EM&gt;I don&#039;t see why you think ems would be so aggressive.&lt;/EM&gt;&lt;/BLOCKQUOTE&gt;

Who said anything about aggression?  Like I said earlier: &lt;a HREF=&quot;http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/total-tech-wars.html#comment-140832702&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Warfare is different from winning&lt;/A&gt;.

You do not necessarily have to fight to prevail - all that is needed is for your competitiors to not have as many kids as you do.  Of course, there &lt;EM&gt;might&lt;/EM&gt; be fights - but they do not seem like a critical element.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><em>I don&#8217;t see why you think ems would be so aggressive.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>Who said anything about aggression?  Like I said earlier: <a HREF="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/total-tech-wars.html#comment-140832702" rel="nofollow">Warfare is different from winning</a>.</p>
<p>You do not necessarily have to fight to prevail &#8211; all that is needed is for your competitiors to not have as many kids as you do.  Of course, there <em>might</em> be fights &#8211; but they do not seem like a critical element.</p>
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		<title>By: Roko</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390912</link>
		<dc:creator>Roko</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 14:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390912</guid>
		<description>M Geddes: &quot;What I love about this idea is that with an effective ontology (a &#039;universal parser), all the world&#039;s other IT researchers would in effect be working for me... with the right ontology I can simply plagiarize all their insights (how nice of academia to publish everything in open source journals for me!)&quot;

Unfortunately, this task is much harder than it seems. Creating ontologies that actually have the flexibility, accuracy and coverage required is an open problem that has foxed the Cyc project for 25 years. There are entire communities of researchers working on problems of (a) creation of upper ontologies, (b) learning ontologies from text, (c) mapping between ontologies and (d) actually doing inference over ontologies. The biggest problem (as I see it) is that there is a bad mismatch between the world of formal logic which allows one to give meaning to terms, and the world of statistics and probability which allows you to approximate things. If you have no notion of approximation, you can&#039;t leverage the powerful computers and large amounts of data we have on the internet, and you will be reduced to writing ontologies by hand. If you have no notion of meaning or semantics, you will end up creating a meaningless resource which can&#039;t perform even the most basic inferences, or you will end up with a probability distribution over a narrowly defined set of outcomes that don&#039;t even come close to providing the generality required to understand an &quot;arbitrary&quot; situation.

Basically, building an &quot;ontology&quot; which can represent &quot;anything&quot; is a very hard problem in itself.

If you have any ideas about how to make progress in this area, then do get in touch. I&#039;ve spent a couple of months researching this, and I am becoming increasingly distressed by how hard it is to get anywhere.

Robin: I might do a post on this issue: &quot;Advice for Wannabe Einsteins&quot;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>M Geddes: &#8220;What I love about this idea is that with an effective ontology (a &#8216;universal parser), all the world&#8217;s other IT researchers would in effect be working for me&#8230; with the right ontology I can simply plagiarize all their insights (how nice of academia to publish everything in open source journals for me!)&#8221;</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this task is much harder than it seems. Creating ontologies that actually have the flexibility, accuracy and coverage required is an open problem that has foxed the Cyc project for 25 years. There are entire communities of researchers working on problems of (a) creation of upper ontologies, (b) learning ontologies from text, (c) mapping between ontologies and (d) actually doing inference over ontologies. The biggest problem (as I see it) is that there is a bad mismatch between the world of formal logic which allows one to give meaning to terms, and the world of statistics and probability which allows you to approximate things. If you have no notion of approximation, you can&#8217;t leverage the powerful computers and large amounts of data we have on the internet, and you will be reduced to writing ontologies by hand. If you have no notion of meaning or semantics, you will end up creating a meaningless resource which can&#8217;t perform even the most basic inferences, or you will end up with a probability distribution over a narrowly defined set of outcomes that don&#8217;t even come close to providing the generality required to understand an &#8220;arbitrary&#8221; situation.</p>
<p>Basically, building an &#8220;ontology&#8221; which can represent &#8220;anything&#8221; is a very hard problem in itself.</p>
<p>If you have any ideas about how to make progress in this area, then do get in touch. I&#8217;ve spent a couple of months researching this, and I am becoming increasingly distressed by how hard it is to get anywhere.</p>
<p>Robin: I might do a post on this issue: &#8220;Advice for Wannabe Einsteins&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390911</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 11:53:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390911</guid>
		<description>Douglas, property rights institutions were pretty primitive during the farming transition.  In an ideal peaceful transition farmers would have bought land from hunters, or sold farming techniques to farmers.  As it was though info leak of farming technique meant it wasn&#039;t just farmers wiping out hunters - hunters also copied farming.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Douglas, property rights institutions were pretty primitive during the farming transition.  In an ideal peaceful transition farmers would have bought land from hunters, or sold farming techniques to farmers.  As it was though info leak of farming technique meant it wasn&#8217;t just farmers wiping out hunters &#8211; hunters also copied farming.</p>
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		<title>By: mjgeddes</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390910</link>
		<dc:creator>mjgeddes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 04:32:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390910</guid>
		<description>The big weak point is definitely the &#039;locality&#039; idea Robin, not the &#039;hard take off&#039; itself.

The idea that one/few people on his/their own can somehow develop an entirely new &#039;localized&#039; complex thing that is largely independent of the wider community seems wildly improbable (no one is smart enough).

That&#039;s why the universal parser/ontological approach is definitely a major alternative strategy, because it can draw on the insights of everyone in the wider IT community for sharing all the individual ideas in an integrated framework.

Roko, here&#039;s the way to do it:

Instead of trying to develop all the &#039;machinery&#039; for AGI from stratch, don&#039;t work on the &#039;machinery&#039; at all.  Instead, develop a specialized language (a parser/ontology) enabling sharing and integration of all the various narrow IT domains - this way, you are in effect only designing the &lt;b&gt;levers&lt;/b&gt;, whilst borrowing all the underlying &lt;b&gt;machinery&lt;/b&gt; from everyone else.

What I love about this idea is that with an effective ontology (a &#039;universal parser), all the world&#039;s other IT researchers would in effect be working for me... with the right ontology I can simply plagiarize all their insights (how nice of academia to publish everything in open source journals for me!), and in effect, use their brains as &#039;botnets&#039;, which are linked via my effective ontology for sharing of cognitive content (I am simply pushing the levers, they&#039;re supplying all the underlying machinery).  LOL It&#039;s the ultimate hack.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The big weak point is definitely the &#8216;locality&#8217; idea Robin, not the &#8216;hard take off&#8217; itself.</p>
<p>The idea that one/few people on his/their own can somehow develop an entirely new &#8216;localized&#8217; complex thing that is largely independent of the wider community seems wildly improbable (no one is smart enough).</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why the universal parser/ontological approach is definitely a major alternative strategy, because it can draw on the insights of everyone in the wider IT community for sharing all the individual ideas in an integrated framework.</p>
<p>Roko, here&#8217;s the way to do it:</p>
<p>Instead of trying to develop all the &#8216;machinery&#8217; for AGI from stratch, don&#8217;t work on the &#8216;machinery&#8217; at all.  Instead, develop a specialized language (a parser/ontology) enabling sharing and integration of all the various narrow IT domains &#8211; this way, you are in effect only designing the <b>levers</b>, whilst borrowing all the underlying <b>machinery</b> from everyone else.</p>
<p>What I love about this idea is that with an effective ontology (a &#8216;universal parser), all the world&#8217;s other IT researchers would in effect be working for me&#8230; with the right ontology I can simply plagiarize all their insights (how nice of academia to publish everything in open source journals for me!), and in effect, use their brains as &#8216;botnets&#8217;, which are linked via my effective ontology for sharing of cognitive content (I am simply pushing the levers, they&#8217;re supplying all the underlying machinery).  LOL It&#8217;s the ultimate hack.</p>
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		<title>By: Ian C.</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390909</link>
		<dc:creator>Ian C.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 03:27:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390909</guid>
		<description>Thank you all for the comments on whole-body emulation. I will look again at the WBE roadmap. I would have thought at least simulated blood would be required but perhaps not.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you all for the comments on whole-body emulation. I will look again at the WBE roadmap. I would have thought at least simulated blood would be required but perhaps not.</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390908</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 03:10:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390908</guid>
		<description>I think by HG Douglas meant hunter-gatherers.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think by HG Douglas meant hunter-gatherers.</p>
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		<title>By: James Andrix</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390907</link>
		<dc:creator>James Andrix</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 01:59:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390907</guid>
		<description>Ian:
In our experience with alterations made to the body, either through accident or design, changes to the brain have the most direct and detailed impact on thought.

People with artificial hearts can think, so on for just about every organ. It is likely that it would be trivial to make  very computationally efficient virtual organs that work as good or better. (probably just mimicking their final effects)
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ian:<br />
In our experience with alterations made to the body, either through accident or design, changes to the brain have the most direct and detailed impact on thought.</p>
<p>People with artificial hearts can think, so on for just about every organ. It is likely that it would be trivial to make  very computationally efficient virtual organs that work as good or better. (probably just mimicking their final effects)</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390906</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 01:54:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/wrapping-up.html#comment-390906</guid>
		<description>Roko, that is &lt;i&gt;the&lt;/i&gt; big question here.

James, stupid idle rich humans are pretty safe now.   No perfectly safe of course.  I don&#039;t consider the em world I describe to be a hell-hole, but don&#039;t want to get distracted on that topic at the moment.

Tim, I don&#039;t see why you think ems would be so aggressive.

Douglas, what is HG?

Ian, no whole body emulation seem unnecessary.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Roko, that is <i>the</i> big question here.</p>
<p>James, stupid idle rich humans are pretty safe now.   No perfectly safe of course.  I don&#8217;t consider the em world I describe to be a hell-hole, but don&#8217;t want to get distracted on that topic at the moment.</p>
<p>Tim, I don&#8217;t see why you think ems would be so aggressive.</p>
<p>Douglas, what is HG?</p>
<p>Ian, no whole body emulation seem unnecessary.</p>
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