I meant, “The average state has a 1 in 30 million chance of /it’s/ electoral vote being decided by one vote.”

There may be a higher probability that your vote will swing the national vote due to electors challenging the constitutionality of being forced to vote according to the popular-vote win. Stuff like that, black swans inside our election system itself, could account for most of the probability of your vote swinging the outcome.

The average state has a lot more than a 1 in 30 million change of swinging the vote. Even states with only 3 electoral votes have a much higher than 1 in 30 million change of swinging the election.

Or the count of people a post about the likelyhood of death while going to the election may influence, which has much higher potential, thus increasing the value of ignoring said post and voting anyways.

As it turns out, statistics are just a way to play around with numbers to make people believe you. Atleast use good statistics now.

We know the the increased probability of dying due to an auto accident on election day is about:
24/(3 x 10^9)

The probability of one vote changing the election is up to:
1/201

or assuming the flawed 1000 year probability suggested by the poster:
1/1001

but likely less. Now lets get those in perspective

Death probability:
3/(3.75 x 10^8) with a pretty small deviation

probability of influencing the election:
0/1 to 374625/(3.75 x 10^8)
or about:
187312/(3.75 x 10^8) with a deviation of the same

so they have the same denominators so (187312/3) or about 62437 times more likely to have a single vote influence the election then to die on the way to the elections.

Keep in mind that the values are approximate and the sampling data is poor, but the statistics are sound.

Rationality in all walks of life make one an uncaring, unfeeling, unsympathetic, and often immoral robot.

“If ignorance is bliss, tis folly to be wise”. But ignorance is not necessarily bliss.

It is necessary for parts of society to behave rationally, when doing their job. Surgeons, engineers, etc. However, outside of doing a job, people are often irrational, and it is not certain that being rational would be good for each, or for Society. Example, one consoling another who is bereaved. I feel consoled by the other, though I do not believe in an afterlife, have genuinely lost the deceased; but a hug makes me feel better. I do need to dwell on rational considerations, but also need to mourn, to heal, which is not a rational process.

I read this blog because I wish to improve my ability to think rationally, but I am not convinced that being rational is appropriate in all circumstances, for the individual or the tribe.

These people seem to be the focus of a great deal of those who believe voting to be a waste-at-best or even a vice. Yet I don’t see that much data on exit polling or nationally conducted surveys that show these one-vote-deciders even exist outside of the imagination of third party voters and anarchists.

So some information on these one-vote-deciders would be appreciated.

“The number of times that a single vote has affected the outcome of a US presidential election is, so far, zero.”

Here you are just flat wrong. Every single vote “affects” the outcome of the election. That is a self-evident fact. You should have said that no single vote has ever determined the outcome of an election.