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	<title>Comments on: Two Visions Of Heritage</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:03:19 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Distrusting Drama</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-589293</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Distrusting Drama</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Dec 2011 13:22:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-589293</guid>
		<description>[...] accept Eliezer&#8217;s AI foom estimates; I&#8217;ve explained my reasoning most recently here, here, and here.  But since we both post on disagreement meta-issues, I should discuss some of my [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] accept Eliezer&#8217;s AI foom estimates; I&#8217;ve explained my reasoning most recently here, here, and here.  But since we both post on disagreement meta-issues, I should discuss some of my [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-471995</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 May 2011 10:59:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-471995</guid>
		<description>While the sufficiently intelligent AI is evolving the internet will also be evolving.  It doesn&#039;t make sense to imagine a superintelligence eating today&#039;s internet.  It will face its own internet - and that may be a good deal more indigestible.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the sufficiently intelligent AI is evolving the internet will also be evolving.  It doesn&#8217;t make sense to imagine a superintelligence eating today&#8217;s internet.  It will face its own internet &#8211; and that may be a good deal more indigestible.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-471994</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 May 2011 10:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-471994</guid>
		<description>Re: &quot;A singleton is more diverse than the alternative since there is nothing preventing agents from marginalizing or killing each other in a non singleton.&quot;

That does not make much sense. Death doesn&#039;t have much to do with diversity, if there are backups - and information-theoretic death occurs in both scenarios.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: &#8220;A singleton is more diverse than the alternative since there is nothing preventing agents from marginalizing or killing each other in a non singleton.&#8221;</p>
<p>That does not make much sense. Death doesn&#8217;t have much to do with diversity, if there are backups &#8211; and information-theoretic death occurs in both scenarios.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-471993</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 May 2011 10:48:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-471993</guid>
		<description>They seem to prefer the Lord of the Rings:

&quot;You&#039;ve probably read &quot;The Lord of the Rings&quot;, right? Don&#039;t think of this as a programming project. Think of it as being something like the Fellowship of the Ring - the Fellowship of the AI, as it were. We&#039;re not searching for programmers for some random corporate inventory-tracking project; we&#039;re searching for people to fill out the Fellowship of the AI.&quot;

 - from &quot;BECOMING A SEED AI PROGRAMMER&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They seem to prefer the Lord of the Rings:</p>
<p>&#8220;You&#8217;ve probably read &#8220;The Lord of the Rings&#8221;, right? Don&#8217;t think of this as a programming project. Think of it as being something like the Fellowship of the Ring &#8211; the Fellowship of the AI, as it were. We&#8217;re not searching for programmers for some random corporate inventory-tracking project; we&#8217;re searching for people to fill out the Fellowship of the AI.&#8221;</p>
<p> &#8211; from &#8220;BECOMING A SEED AI PROGRAMMER&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Lisa Marie</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-425860</link>
		<dc:creator>Lisa Marie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Dec 2008 08:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-425860</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;I don&#039;t think &#039;average&#039; is a fair approximation of reflective equilibria. If you think it shitty, and everyone else thinks it shitty, then the FAI (if it work as intended) will figure out that that is NOT the right answer, and do something as un-shitty as superhumanly possible.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think &#8216;average&#8217; is a fair approximation of reflective equilibria. If you think it shitty, and everyone else thinks it shitty, then the FAI (if it work as intended) will figure out that that is NOT the right answer, and do something as un-shitty as superhumanly possible.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-425859</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-425859</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Firstly, there&#039;s nothing intrinsically wrong with preferences that cause you to move in a circle.  It&#039;s quite possible to code (if A:B,if B:C,if C:A) into a utilitarian system.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Secondly, the problem with circular preferences is not that they lead you in a circle.  The problem arises when you move in a circle &lt;em&gt;and&lt;/em&gt; you would have been better off if you had stayed still.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Your example doesn&#039;t result in circular travel.  It doesn&#039;t even lead to different behaviour to that which would be produced by a utility maximiser.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In summary, I don&#039;t see that your picking at the edges of this concept and hoping it will unravel is getting you very far.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Firstly, there&#8217;s nothing intrinsically wrong with preferences that cause you to move in a circle.  It&#8217;s quite possible to code (if A:B,if B:C,if C:A) into a utilitarian system.</p>
<p>Secondly, the problem with circular preferences is not that they lead you in a circle.  The problem arises when you move in a circle <em>and</em> you would have been better off if you had stayed still.</p>
<p>Your example doesn&#8217;t result in circular travel.  It doesn&#8217;t even lead to different behaviour to that which would be produced by a utility maximiser.</p>
<p>In summary, I don&#8217;t see that your picking at the edges of this concept and hoping it will unravel is getting you very far.</p>
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		<title>By: Wei Dai</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-425858</link>
		<dc:creator>Wei Dai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Dec 2008 01:39:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-425858</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Tim, I gave one example in my blog post already. Here&#039;s another one, stated in terms of time-dependent preferences instead of changing preferences. Suppose I have the following preferences: A1&gt;B1, B1&gt;C1, C1&gt;A1, C2&gt;A2, C2&gt;B2, A2&gt;B2. A1 means state A at time 1, I start at A0, and it takes 1 time unit to go from one state to another. There&#039;s clearly a circularity in my preferences, but it&#039;s not exploitable. I simply go to state C at time 1 and stay there at time 2.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;To sum up why Steve Omohundro&#039;s derivation doesn&#039;t work: being an expected utility maximizer is sufficient, but it&#039;s not &lt;i&gt;necessary&lt;/i&gt;, to avoid being exploited.&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tim, I gave one example in my blog post already. Here&#8217;s another one, stated in terms of time-dependent preferences instead of changing preferences. Suppose I have the following preferences: A1&gt;B1, B1&gt;C1, C1&gt;A1, C2&gt;A2, C2&gt;B2, A2&gt;B2. A1 means state A at time 1, I start at A0, and it takes 1 time unit to go from one state to another. There&#8217;s clearly a circularity in my preferences, but it&#8217;s not exploitable. I simply go to state C at time 1 and stay there at time 2.</p>
<p>To sum up why Steve Omohundro&#8217;s derivation doesn&#8217;t work: being an expected utility maximizer is sufficient, but it&#8217;s not <i>necessary</i>, to avoid being exploited.</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-425857</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 18:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-425857</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Wei, there&#039;s no rule which says that the AI running CEV can&#039;t already contain some aspects of human morality.  In fact, you have to do this just to make sure that a &quot;look but don&#039;t touch&quot; instruction understands what not to touch.  A CEV-AI is best thought as a partially Friendly and highly conservative AI that does know how to run CEV to generate a fully Friendly AI that doesn&#039;t have to be so conservative.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I suppose that if I could &lt;i&gt;know&lt;/i&gt; that my reflective equilibrium left out all aspects of morality except X, Y, Z which were simple enough to program into an AI, that this would simplify the Friendly AI problem.  I&#039;m not assuming any such simplification exists; my current morality, extended outward, neither simplifies in this fashion nor looks like it might do so.  The utility function is not up for grabs - you just have to come to terms with that fact; if you can&#039;t do complicated things like utility function transfers, you probably shouldn&#039;t be running AIs.  Utility function transfers are simpler than all of human morality, though - or you can bootstrap them - that&#039;s the key hope here.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wei, there&#8217;s no rule which says that the AI running CEV can&#8217;t already contain some aspects of human morality.  In fact, you have to do this just to make sure that a &#8220;look but don&#8217;t touch&#8221; instruction understands what not to touch.  A CEV-AI is best thought as a partially Friendly and highly conservative AI that does know how to run CEV to generate a fully Friendly AI that doesn&#8217;t have to be so conservative.</p>
<p>I suppose that if I could <i>know</i> that my reflective equilibrium left out all aspects of morality except X, Y, Z which were simple enough to program into an AI, that this would simplify the Friendly AI problem.  I&#8217;m not assuming any such simplification exists; my current morality, extended outward, neither simplifies in this fashion nor looks like it might do so.  The utility function is not up for grabs &#8211; you just have to come to terms with that fact; if you can&#8217;t do complicated things like utility function transfers, you probably shouldn&#8217;t be running AIs.  Utility function transfers are simpler than all of human morality, though &#8211; or you can bootstrap them &#8211; that&#8217;s the key hope here.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-425856</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 10:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-425856</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Re: Wei Dai&#039;s &quot;exploitable circularity can be avoided by changing preferences&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;What do you mean?  If your preferences change over time, then that can be represented by a more complex preference system that explains such temporal variation in values - and then it is the utility associated with those preferences which is being maximised.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: Wei Dai&#8217;s &#8220;exploitable circularity can be avoided by changing preferences&#8221;</p>
<p>What do you mean?  If your preferences change over time, then that can be represented by a more complex preference system that explains such temporal variation in values &#8211; and then it is the utility associated with those preferences which is being maximised.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous Coward</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html#comment-425855</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous Coward</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 05:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/two-visions-of-heritage.html#comment-425855</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Replies to some points:&lt;br&gt;
--&lt;br&gt;&lt;i&gt;The contrast between these two views of our heritage seems hard to overstate.  One is a dry account of small individuals whose abilities, beliefs, and values are set by a vast historical machine of impersonal competitive forces, while the other is a grand inspiring saga of absolute good or evil hanging on the wisdom of a few mythic heroes who use their raw genius and either love or indifference to make a God who makes a universe in the image of their feelings.  How does one begin to compare such starkly different visions?&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
History provides a useful guide. People like Hippocrates, Qin Shi Huang, Charles Darwin, or more recently, Linus Torvalds or Bram Cohen, made significant alterations to the course of human history because of their personal views and technical expertise - be it in developing methodologies, standardising armies and languages, or providing computational tools with the power to effect how societies work. (international communications, education to some extent now depend on linux; bittorrent, within a year or two, came to represent 1/3 of all digital international communications - not a FOOM, but not entirely dissimilar either). These were not social changes that were &#039;bound to happen&#039;... look at Galileo. Rather, a single person imposed a new reality upon humanity, generally, through their singlemindedness and skills. &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;--&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;Paperclipping the solar system is an evil beyond the understanding of most human minds. But for a paperclipper it&#039;s completely natural - virtuous even.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Heaven forbid an AI notices that humans are busy turning planet earth into more humans at a terrifying rate - and the rest of the universe, if we get the chance.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;--&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Also, a note for anyone interested in FOOM. There&#039;s a scifi book series by Jack Chalker called Rings of the Master. It&#039;s about an AI that FOOMs and takes over humanity, followed by the galaxy. It proceeds to take steps to ensure humanity cannot regain control again. However, the people who created the AI took a precaution against this event; its value system includes an overriding imperative that there must always be SOME way for humans to regain direct control over the AIs actions - perhaps incredibly difficult, but within the realms of possibility. &lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Replies to some points:<br />
&#8211;<br /><i>The contrast between these two views of our heritage seems hard to overstate.  One is a dry account of small individuals whose abilities, beliefs, and values are set by a vast historical machine of impersonal competitive forces, while the other is a grand inspiring saga of absolute good or evil hanging on the wisdom of a few mythic heroes who use their raw genius and either love or indifference to make a God who makes a universe in the image of their feelings.  How does one begin to compare such starkly different visions?</i></p>
<p>
History provides a useful guide. People like Hippocrates, Qin Shi Huang, Charles Darwin, or more recently, Linus Torvalds or Bram Cohen, made significant alterations to the course of human history because of their personal views and technical expertise &#8211; be it in developing methodologies, standardising armies and languages, or providing computational tools with the power to effect how societies work. (international communications, education to some extent now depend on linux; bittorrent, within a year or two, came to represent 1/3 of all digital international communications &#8211; not a FOOM, but not entirely dissimilar either). These were not social changes that were &#8216;bound to happen&#8217;&#8230; look at Galileo. Rather, a single person imposed a new reality upon humanity, generally, through their singlemindedness and skills. </p>
<p>&#8211;</p>
<p><i>&#8220;Paperclipping the solar system is an evil beyond the understanding of most human minds. But for a paperclipper it&#8217;s completely natural &#8211; virtuous even.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>
Heaven forbid an AI notices that humans are busy turning planet earth into more humans at a terrifying rate &#8211; and the rest of the universe, if we get the chance.</p>
<p>&#8211;</p>
<p>Also, a note for anyone interested in FOOM. There&#8217;s a scifi book series by Jack Chalker called Rings of the Master. It&#8217;s about an AI that FOOMs and takes over humanity, followed by the galaxy. It proceeds to take steps to ensure humanity cannot regain control again. However, the people who created the AI took a precaution against this event; its value system includes an overriding imperative that there must always be SOME way for humans to regain direct control over the AIs actions &#8211; perhaps incredibly difficult, but within the realms of possibility. </p>
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