Comments on: Presuming Bets are Bad http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: nolrai http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html#comment-389903 nolrai Sat, 02 May 2009 17:13:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html#comment-389903 And it is considered responsible to make longshot high payoff bets that close family members will die unexpectedly. That is a very good point. And it is considered responsible to make longshot high payoff bets that close family members will die unexpectedly.

That is a very good point.

]]> By: James Andrix http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html#comment-389902 James Andrix Sun, 21 Dec 2008 22:46:42 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html#comment-389902 And it is considered responsible to make longshot high payoff bets that close family members will die unexpectedly. And it is considered responsible to make longshot high payoff bets that close family members will die unexpectedly.

]]> By: frelkins http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html#comment-389901 frelkins Sun, 21 Dec 2008 14:42:13 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/presuming-bets-are-bad.html#comment-389901 That the Honorable Swan would loudly distance himself from the actions of a "bookie" makes sense -- when you recall Swan himself was once investigated for a campaign contribution he made. With this taint on his record, it is in his interest to separate himself from all the connotations of financial shenanigans associated with the term "bookie" or anything on a sports betting site. This just re-inforces the fact that prediction markets will not be taken seriously until the separate themselves from sports betting sites, and stop formatting their websites to look like sports betting sites. That the Honorable Swan would loudly distance himself from the actions of a “bookie” makes sense — when you recall Swan himself was once investigated for a campaign contribution he made. With this taint on his record, it is in his interest to separate himself from all the connotations of financial shenanigans associated with the term “bookie” or anything on a sports betting site.

This just re-inforces the fact that prediction markets will not be taken seriously until the separate themselves from sports betting sites, and stop formatting their websites to look like sports betting sites.

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