Comments on: Hated Because It Might Work http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:52:16 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Richard Hollerith http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390457 Richard Hollerith Tue, 16 Dec 2008 14:03:37 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390457 <blockquote>I don't concede that there *cannot* be non-intrinsic reasons to revive someone.</blockquote> OK now I understand: if, for example, an agent made an agreement to revive, it can be rational for the agent to honor the agreement even if the agent assigns zero intrinsic value to the frozen human. I stand by my statement that a frozen human is an obsolete human. (Actually, there is a very small probability that a human would not be obsolete even when surrounded by vastly more capable agents, but the probability is low enough to make it almost misleading for me even to mention it in a short comment.)

I don’t concede that there *cannot* be non-intrinsic reasons to revive someone.

OK now I understand: if, for example, an agent made an agreement to revive, it can be rational for the agent to honor the agreement even if the agent assigns zero intrinsic value to the frozen human.

I stand by my statement that a frozen human is an obsolete human. (Actually, there is a very small probability that a human would not be obsolete even when surrounded by vastly more capable agents, but the probability is low enough to make it almost misleading for me even to mention it in a short comment.)

]]> By: Psy-Kosh http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390456 Psy-Kosh Mon, 15 Dec 2008 23:10:13 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390456 Robin: hrm... maybe you should try that and see what happens. :) As far as the whole hostile wives thing, never heard about that. I don't have much of a comment on that because my model of reality didn't even contain that in the first place. I don't know really what would explain that data. How does it compare to say an atheist wife's reaction to her husband suddenly deciding to participate in a particularly expensive religious ritual or whatever to, say, speed his soul on to the beyond? I am certainly not equating cryo with this (although the motivations are similar) but I think it would be informative to find out if the reaction is of similar intensity. Similar for religious wife and husband who participates in such a thing from a different religion. ie, _IF_ all three have the same level of reaction, then I'd say that the "hated because it might work" hypothesis is probably false and relates more to the "relative weirdness"... that is, the distance it is from what the wife views as something acceptable/vaguely normal in their (or her) own usual "in crowd". Dennis: from what I saw of that, they didn't even touch on the core philosophy, the whole information-theoretic definition of death. The whole "even if the body itself is more or less lost, it stops the information that made you you from decaying, so we may be able to 'read that off' later on" thing. So I'm not really sure they've actually shown it to in any way really be a scam. Also, why did they talk to one of the smaller groups rather than Alcor or CI? Robin: hrm… maybe you should try that and see what happens. :) As far as the whole hostile wives thing, never heard about that. I don’t have much of a comment on that because my model of reality didn’t even contain that in the first place. I don’t know really what would explain that data. How does it compare to say an atheist wife’s reaction to her husband suddenly deciding to participate in a particularly expensive religious ritual or whatever to, say, speed his soul on to the beyond? I am certainly not equating cryo with this (although the motivations are similar) but I think it would be informative to find out if the reaction is of similar intensity.

Similar for religious wife and husband who participates in such a thing from a different religion.

ie, _IF_ all three have the same level of reaction, then I’d say that the “hated because it might work” hypothesis is probably false and relates more to the “relative weirdness”… that is, the distance it is from what the wife views as something acceptable/vaguely normal in their (or her) own usual “in crowd”.

Dennis: from what I saw of that, they didn’t even touch on the core philosophy, the whole information-theoretic definition of death. The whole “even if the body itself is more or less lost, it stops the information that made you you from decaying, so we may be able to ‘read that off’ later on” thing. So I’m not really sure they’ve actually shown it to in any way really be a scam.

Also, why did they talk to one of the smaller groups rather than Alcor or CI?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390455 Robin Hanson Mon, 15 Dec 2008 22:37:53 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390455 This post was about a <i>comparison</i> between two scenarios. Yet most commentors ignored the comparison to just talk about cryonics. It is almost as if commentors browse posts looking for their favorite buzzwords and upon finding one mentioned leap into their standard speech on it. I could save a lot of work if instead of writing thoughtful posts I just cycled through mentions of a standard list of buzzwords. This post was about a comparison between two scenarios. Yet most commentors ignored the comparison to just talk about cryonics. It is almost as if commentors browse posts looking for their favorite buzzwords and upon finding one mentioned leap into their standard speech on it. I could save a lot of work if instead of writing thoughtful posts I just cycled through mentions of a standard list of buzzwords.

]]> By: kurt9 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390454 kurt9 Mon, 15 Dec 2008 17:59:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390454 Its the issue of closure. It is not the possibility that cryonics may work that causes many people to hate it. It is the lack of certainty that it will work. When someone gets frozen, they exist in a sort of indeterminate state between life and death. Most people cannot handle this. They want to know if the person is either dead or alive. They want either closure or being able to have the person around as a living, thinking human being. Its the issue of closure. It is not the possibility that cryonics may work that causes many people to hate it. It is the lack of certainty that it will work. When someone gets frozen, they exist in a sort of indeterminate state between life and death. Most people cannot handle this. They want to know if the person is either dead or alive. They want either closure or being able to have the person around as a living, thinking human being.

]]> By: Richard Kennaway http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390453 Richard Kennaway Sun, 14 Dec 2008 23:24:32 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390453 Dennis: I didn't say the frozen body has no value (the entire point of cryonics is that it might), only that it has no power. That is the biggest problem I see with cryonics: how can you guarantee the safe keeping of your corpsicle for decades after you have ceased to have any say in the matter? How many dead people have had their posthumous wishes actively carried out for that long? Dennis: I didn’t say the frozen body has no value (the entire point of cryonics is that it might), only that it has no power. That is the biggest problem I see with cryonics: how can you guarantee the safe keeping of your corpsicle for decades after you have ceased to have any say in the matter? How many dead people have had their posthumous wishes actively carried out for that long?

]]> By: Dennis Gorelik http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390452 Dennis Gorelik Sun, 14 Dec 2008 21:47:37 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390452 I agree with Richard that frozen body has no value for the society (either current or future). That means "irresponsible body maintenance right now" and "no proper thawing process in the future". That results in almost zero chances of recovery in the future paradise (even if it's theoretically possible from technical perspective). Cryonics competes for people's money on the same level as any other religions do. I think that eventually Cryonics will be fully transformed into religion (like it happened with Scientology). In fact Scientology and Cryonics could even merge with each other :-) <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVPCGMYmQjw" rel="nofollow">Penn and Teller Calls BS on Cryonics Scam</a> I agree with Richard that frozen body has no value for the society (either current or future).
That means “irresponsible body maintenance right now” and “no proper thawing process in the future”.
That results in almost zero chances of recovery in the future paradise (even if it’s theoretically possible from technical perspective).

Cryonics competes for people’s money on the same level as any other religions do. I think that eventually Cryonics will be fully transformed into religion (like it happened with Scientology).
In fact Scientology and Cryonics could even merge with each other :-)

Penn and Teller Calls BS on Cryonics Scam

]]> By: Carl Shulman http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390451 Carl Shulman Sun, 14 Dec 2008 21:20:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390451 Steven, Not necessarily, these things would depend on a lot of particular facts, e.g. how the actions of different entities at different times are related. Steven,

Not necessarily, these things would depend on a lot of particular facts, e.g. how the actions of different entities at different times are related.

]]> By: steven http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390450 steven Sun, 14 Dec 2008 21:01:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390450 Carl, I think if that reasoning goes through it proves lots of things that are even more interesting than the future reviving cryonicists, perhaps including the prediction that paperclip AIs will use some significant fraction of their resources to reward paperclip AI creators. Carl, I think if that reasoning goes through it proves lots of things that are even more interesting than the future reviving cryonicists, perhaps including the prediction that paperclip AIs will use some significant fraction of their resources to reward paperclip AI creators.

]]> By: Carl Shulman http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390449 Carl Shulman Sun, 14 Dec 2008 19:56:40 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390449 "In summary, the justification for cryopreservation rests on the proposition that the person being preserved has intrinsic value; it cannot be justified by the instrumental value of the person being preserved. Will you please concede that point, Carl?" I don't concede that there *cannot* be non-intrinsic reasons to revive someone. There are Prisoner's Dilemma/Newcomb's problem issues here. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/true-pd.html “In summary, the justification for cryopreservation rests on the proposition that the person being preserved has intrinsic value; it cannot be justified by the instrumental value of the person being preserved. Will you please concede that point, Carl?”

I don’t concede that there *cannot* be non-intrinsic reasons to revive someone. There are Prisoner’s Dilemma/Newcomb’s problem issues here.

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/true-pd.html

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390448 Eliezer Yudkowsky Sun, 14 Dec 2008 18:05:11 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/hated-because-it-might-work.html#comment-390448 If abandonment is the problem, this suggests that <i>heavily pressuring your wife to sign up for cryonics</i> will result in better relationship outcomes. Trying to pretend it's a personal choice that she can make any way she wants, may not have the intended effect. A testable hypothesis, if we could collect statistics. Better yet, have the cryonics talk before you get into a potentially marriageable relationship with someone - "I don't want to fall in love with someone who's going to die on me." That makes it clear you're not trying to leave her by signing up, but that, when the relationship starts, it's not just till death do you part. From a third-person standpoint - I want you to sign up, and I want your loved ones to sign up. If your loved ones don't sign up, then I'm sorry for you, and you're going to experience pain about that. But I still want you to sign up, even if it's sad, because humanity needs to get moving on this, and that means that some people have to be first. If she can understand that's how you see the <i>moral imperative</i>, then again it might help on the abandonment issue. I don't really know, though; I have no experience in this area. If abandonment is the problem, this suggests that heavily pressuring your wife to sign up for cryonics will result in better relationship outcomes. Trying to pretend it’s a personal choice that she can make any way she wants, may not have the intended effect. A testable hypothesis, if we could collect statistics.

Better yet, have the cryonics talk before you get into a potentially marriageable relationship with someone – “I don’t want to fall in love with someone who’s going to die on me.” That makes it clear you’re not trying to leave her by signing up, but that, when the relationship starts, it’s not just till death do you part.

From a third-person standpoint – I want you to sign up, and I want your loved ones to sign up. If your loved ones don’t sign up, then I’m sorry for you, and you’re going to experience pain about that. But I still want you to sign up, even if it’s sad, because humanity needs to get moving on this, and that means that some people have to be first. If she can understand that’s how you see the moral imperative, then again it might help on the abandonment issue.

I don’t really know, though; I have no experience in this area.

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