Comments on: ‘Futarchy’ is NYT Buzzword of ’08 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 04:20:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Making up rational-sounding stories, rebranding atheists, novelists playing god « Mike Kenny http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-567565 Making up rational-sounding stories, rebranding atheists, novelists playing god « Mike Kenny Thu, 24 Nov 2011 12:01:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-567565 [...] Robin Hanson on Futarchy as a buzzword. My comment there: Maybe futarchy’s rising prominence as an idea will get it noticed by more companies who will try it for making decision privately, deciding what their next move should be. I guess there would be problems of a business maybe not having a big enough number of employees betting. I suppose the bigger companies are possibly more conservative than the smaller ones, and less likely to implement, whereas smaller companies might be more daring but not have enough employees to make an internal betting market. Is that a problem or am I way off? [...] [...] Robin Hanson on Futarchy as a buzzword. My comment there: Maybe futarchy’s rising prominence as an idea will get it noticed by more companies who will try it for making decision privately, deciding what their next move should be. I guess there would be problems of a business maybe not having a big enough number of employees betting. I suppose the bigger companies are possibly more conservative than the smaller ones, and less likely to implement, whereas smaller companies might be more daring but not have enough employees to make an internal betting market. Is that a problem or am I way off? [...]

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389918 Robin Hanson Sun, 21 Dec 2008 22:39:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389918 Johnicholas, SimCity policy could be a great place to run a trial. Mike, having a small number of traders is not a problem if those traders know as much as anyone about the topic, so a small company could be a fine place to run a trial. Johnicholas, SimCity policy could be a great place to run a trial.

Mike, having a small number of traders is not a problem if those traders know as much as anyone about the topic, so a small company could be a fine place to run a trial.

]]> By: Mike Kenny http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389917 Mike Kenny Sun, 21 Dec 2008 21:38:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389917 Maybe futarchy's rising prominence as an idea will get it noticed by more companies who will try it for making decision privately, deciding what their next move should be. I guess there would be problems of a business maybe not having a big enough number of employees betting. I suppose the bigger companies are possibly more conservative than the smaller ones, and less likely to implement, whereas smaller companies might be more daring but not have enough employees to make an internal betting market. Is that a problem or am I way off? Maybe futarchy’s rising prominence as an idea will get it noticed by more companies who will try it for making decision privately, deciding what their next move should be. I guess there would be problems of a business maybe not having a big enough number of employees betting. I suppose the bigger companies are possibly more conservative than the smaller ones, and less likely to implement, whereas smaller companies might be more daring but not have enough employees to make an internal betting market. Is that a problem or am I way off?

]]> By: Johnicholas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389916 Johnicholas Sun, 21 Dec 2008 14:15:09 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389916 I tried to do this once, betting and voting on a SimCity simulation. My intuition is that going so rapidly to large-scale systems isn't likely to work. I tried to do this once, betting and voting on a SimCity simulation.

My intuition is that going so rapidly to large-scale systems isn’t likely to work.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389915 Hopefully Anonymous Sun, 21 Dec 2008 09:27:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389915 Why not pitch the Obama administration directly? The narrative is that they're very open to experts. Also, look at ambitious, technocratic governors and big city mayors looking to distinguish themselves. I think Bloomberg might be open -I think he experimented with Dryer's idea about pay incentives for school performance, with his own pocket money. Why not pitch the Obama administration directly? The narrative is that they’re very open to experts. Also, look at ambitious, technocratic governors and big city mayors looking to distinguish themselves. I think Bloomberg might be open -I think he experimented with Dryer’s idea about pay incentives for school performance, with his own pocket money.

]]> By: frelkins http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389914 frelkins Sun, 21 Dec 2008 04:54:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389914 @Patri This may seem off-topic at first, but it really isn't: are you actually practicing NVC? I consider my prediction market as part of an NVC maneuver, since it's factual, not judgmental. I'm wondering if you'd like to talk about that. @Patri

This may seem off-topic at first, but it really isn’t: are you actually practicing NVC? I consider my prediction market as part of an NVC maneuver, since it’s factual, not judgmental. I’m wondering if you’d like to talk about that.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389913 Robin Hanson Sun, 21 Dec 2008 03:00:40 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389913 Eliezer, it seems to me the resources needed to make the markets you suggest could be as easily used for a first trial, which seems more likely to lead to further trials. Patri and Grant, I'm willing to talk anyone with the power to act. Bryan, you did indeed. :) Eliezer, it seems to me the resources needed to make the markets you suggest could be as easily used for a first trial, which seems more likely to lead to further trials.

Patri and Grant, I’m willing to talk anyone with the power to act.

Bryan, you did indeed. :)

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389912 Eliezer Yudkowsky Sun, 21 Dec 2008 02:19:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389912 Excuse me if I'm being overly recursive, but wouldn't the logical first step be to set up a small market on which initial steps toward futarchy are most likely to pay off - say, a market on which individuals to approach for funding to set up a larger market on which countries might accept various steps toward futarchy? (If it works, the Singularity Institute might be tempted to set up a market on which individuals are most likely to fund us... I wonder if we should try that anyway?) Excuse me if I’m being overly recursive, but wouldn’t the logical first step be to set up a small market on which initial steps toward futarchy are most likely to pay off – say, a market on which individuals to approach for funding to set up a larger market on which countries might accept various steps toward futarchy? (If it works, the Singularity Institute might be tempted to set up a market on which individuals are most likely to fund us… I wonder if we should try that anyway?)

]]> By: Patri Friedman http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389911 Patri Friedman Sun, 21 Dec 2008 01:24:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389911 Singapore seems like your best bet, at least, until there are seasteads. Singapore seems like your best bet, at least, until there are seasteads.

]]> By: Bryan Caplan http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389910 Bryan Caplan Sun, 21 Dec 2008 01:02:32 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/12/futarchy-is-nyt-buzzword-of-08.html#comment-389910 Woh! I witnessed the birth of a buzzword! Woh! I witnessed the birth of a buzzword!

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