Comments on: Beware “I Believe”

By: What ‘believing’ usually is | Meteuphoric

What ‘believing’ usually is | Meteuphoric — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 22:34:40 +0000

[...] is further evidence you should be wary of what people ‘believe’. Rate this: Share [...]

By: Jay Livingston

Jay Livingston — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 14:57:37 +0000

I recognize two of these (#2, #5) as they come from a source outside of religion or philosophy — popular entertainment. It’s possible that the “I believe” in #2 is there just to fill out two beats in a bar. You might as easily used “for every drop of rain a flower grows,” which also would be musically awkward without the “I believe.” Belief #5 is from a longer list of several beliefs intended as a comment on the whole idea of recitations of belief. You’ve truncated the statement. The full sentence reads, “And I believe that sex is one of the most beautiful, wholesome and natural things… that money can buy.” (http://snltranscripts.jt.org/79/79smono.phtml)

By: Caledonian

Caledonian — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:14:48 +0000

Caledonian, it is a bad rationality sign to be trying to convince yourself you believe something.

Correct. I wasn’t advocating the technique, just suggesting a reason why people use it.

By: Stuart Armstrong

Stuart Armstrong — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 09:30:52 +0000

“I believe” is short for “these are my strong opinions, and I know that other people have different ones on the subject”. With the extra ingedient of “I also know, from experience, that neither of us will be able to convince the other”. And a sprinkling of “I am emotionally attached to this, and will get angry if you try and push me too hard”.

Mix, and bake, to get a most unpleasant cake.

By: Jeff Borack

Jeff Borack — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 05:24:11 +0000

“It seems” seems to indicate you are especially tentative and open to persuasion about X without indicating a strong emotional attachment, making it a good substitute for “I believe”, but still not a good substitute for “I value”. It also sets the sentence up for a “however” or “but” reversal. “It appears” also seems to indicate openness to persuasion without the emotional attachment, and with less of a “however” or “but” setup.

It seems my intuition is correct.
It believe that children are our future.
It seems like Jesus will come again, but probably no time soon.
It seems like humanity won’t survive the century unless we change.
It appears like sex is beautiful and natural.
It appears that myth is more potent than history.
It would appear like I can do anything I set my mind to, but sometime I fail.
It appears like everyone deserves a second chance, but we don’t all get one.

By: Jeff Borack

Jeff Borack — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:59:46 +0000

Is there a difference between saying “I believe” and “it seems”?

By: Daniel Humphries

Daniel Humphries — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:34:47 +0000

I believe this is an excellent post, Robin!

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:38:43 +0000

Caledonian, it is a bad rationality sign to be trying to convince yourself you believe something.

Eliezer, I suspect we have short phrases that say “I value” but that they don’t have the “ring” because it is feeling that we *believe* it as if it were a fact that gives us the warm fuzzy feeling.

Nancy, you lost me on that last comment.

By: Silas

Silas — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:31:06 +0000

Another possibility: Thoses statements include a self-reference for emphasis. To see what I mean, look at another context:

“It wasn’t Mary that took the money.”

Hey!!! Why didn’t you just say, “Mary didn’t take the money”?

“Because they I would have to say, ‘Mary didn’t take the money, but someone else did.’ to prevent you from interpreting me as ‘Mary took something other than the money’.”

Now, back to Robin_Hanson’s examples, take a sentence like, “Children are our future.” Well, as it stands, you can’t rearrange it to place emphasis on the speaker because the speaker isn’t in the sentence! So you have to “unnecessarily” add it so that you can emphasize it. An example:

“Children are our future.”
Response: Oh yeah, good point, gotta watch out for them.

“I believe children are our future [as differentiated from others who don't place a high significance on them].”
Response: Oh, you’re one of *those* people…
Alternate response: Good, I just upped my prior that your preferencees match mine.

Make sense?

Wait, never mind, that’s basically what Robin_Hanson said.

By: Matt Osborne

Matt Osborne — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 19:58:32 +0000

Thank you! I’ve been studying the fringe for a while now, and come to the conclusion that all paranoia can be distilled into the X-Files poster of the flying saucer that says, “I WANT TO BELIEVE.”

If you want to believe in aliens you will see them. If you want to believe in conspiracies, you will see them. What goes for ghosts goes for internet smears about political candidates. Rationality goes out the window, replaced by expectation. Our inner narratives create the universe in the image of our biases.