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	<title>Comments on: FHI Emulation Roadmap Out</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Come The Em Rev</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-572864</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Come The Em Rev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Nov 2011 01:01:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-572864</guid>
		<description>[...] the revolution,&#8221; you might wait three to fifteen decades for the &#8220;em rev&#8220;, the whole brain emulation revolution.  The em rev is my best guess for the next &#8220;singularity&#8221; scale change, like [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] the revolution,&#8221; you might wait three to fifteen decades for the &#8220;em rev&#8220;, the whole brain emulation revolution.  The em rev is my best guess for the next &#8220;singularity&#8221; scale change, like [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393477</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2008 06:58:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393477</guid>
		<description>IBM gets $4.9 million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency grant: &lt;a HREF=&quot;http://tech.yahoo.com/news/nf/20081121/bs_nf/63167;_ylt=AjZ8448jY3mYkhoGVxXerqYYQJA5&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;IBM, Partners Aim To Build Brain-Like Computer Systems&lt;/A&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>IBM gets $4.9 million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency grant: <a HREF="http://tech.yahoo.com/news/nf/20081121/bs_nf/63167;_ylt=AjZ8448jY3mYkhoGVxXerqYYQJA5" rel="nofollow">IBM, Partners Aim To Build Brain-Like Computer Systems</a></p>
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		<title>By: Michael Howard</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393476</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Howard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:01:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393476</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;What I would love is a 3-hour led-discussion seminar on this...&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

If you can make it to London, Anders is &lt;a href=http://extrobritannia.blogspot.com/2008/10/emulating-brains-silicon-dreams-or-next.html rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;doing a 2 hour WBE talk&lt;/a&gt; on Saturday the 22nd. There&#039;s also the option of lunch before and pub after.

If not, they&#039;re planning to webcast it. But the event is free, and Anders is &lt;i&gt;amazing&lt;/i&gt; to listen to and debate with, so I recommend coming.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i><br />
<blockquote>What I would love is a 3-hour led-discussion seminar on this&#8230;</p></blockquote>
<p></i></p>
<p>If you can make it to London, Anders is <a href=http://extrobritannia.blogspot.com/2008/10/emulating-brains-silicon-dreams-or-next.html rel="nofollow">doing a 2 hour WBE talk</a> on Saturday the 22nd. There&#8217;s also the option of lunch before and pub after.</p>
<p>If not, they&#8217;re planning to webcast it. But the event is free, and Anders is <i>amazing</i> to listen to and debate with, so I recommend coming.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Bostrom</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393475</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Bostrom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:45:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393475</guid>
		<description>For those who don&#039;t read the report, let me just note what the it doesn&#039;t say (so as to forestall some possible misunderstandings).

The report does not claim that WBE will happen before other AI approaches succeed; this question is not addressed.  The report does not claim that we ought to try to develop WBE; the issue desirability is not addressed.  The report also does not address safety issues, nor does it discuss the potential socio-economic consequences of WBE.  We omitted these issues, not because we deem them unimportant, but because we thought it best to start by trying to create some basic technical understanding of the prospect and the challenges it involves.  We hope to address these wider questions in future work, or to stimulate others to do so.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those who don&#8217;t read the report, let me just note what the it doesn&#8217;t say (so as to forestall some possible misunderstandings).</p>
<p>The report does not claim that WBE will happen before other AI approaches succeed; this question is not addressed.  The report does not claim that we ought to try to develop WBE; the issue desirability is not addressed.  The report also does not address safety issues, nor does it discuss the potential socio-economic consequences of WBE.  We omitted these issues, not because we deem them unimportant, but because we thought it best to start by trying to create some basic technical understanding of the prospect and the challenges it involves.  We hope to address these wider questions in future work, or to stimulate others to do so.</p>
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		<title>By: haig</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393474</link>
		<dc:creator>haig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Nov 2008 04:11:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393474</guid>
		<description>People forget that whole brain emulation&#039;s goal is not to build an AI but to learn more about the brain.  Blue Brain and such are modeling as accurately as possible but we still don&#039;t know the full story regarding many basic properties of the brain such as plasticity, development, glial cells; even the neurons themselves are not completely understood.  That is the point of computational neuroscience, to garner a systems understanding of brain function that is not entirely possible through experiment though experimental verification is crucial throughout I&#039;m sure.

That being said, WBE along with all other advancements in our understanding of brain-cognitive science will slowly give us more and more of the picture and engineers will naturally use that knowledge to build technology based on it.  The end result of WBE will not be a functioning human-like intelligence in a box, but will be theory and algorithms of how the brain processes information.  This in turn can and probably will be used to build intelligent machines by piecing together the necessary parts as we see fit.  An analogy is we can model an ant colony digitally and the result is not to have a digital ant colony running around on screen (may have entertainment value but little else), but better internet routers based on the principles discovered.  Already, biologically based algorithms for machine vision are surpassing all other attempts thus far and that trend will continue.

I think a combined approach of current AI/engineering methods along with the new tools and ideas that computational neuroscience provide will be the best route towards intelligent machines of value to society.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>People forget that whole brain emulation&#8217;s goal is not to build an AI but to learn more about the brain.  Blue Brain and such are modeling as accurately as possible but we still don&#8217;t know the full story regarding many basic properties of the brain such as plasticity, development, glial cells; even the neurons themselves are not completely understood.  That is the point of computational neuroscience, to garner a systems understanding of brain function that is not entirely possible through experiment though experimental verification is crucial throughout I&#8217;m sure.</p>
<p>That being said, WBE along with all other advancements in our understanding of brain-cognitive science will slowly give us more and more of the picture and engineers will naturally use that knowledge to build technology based on it.  The end result of WBE will not be a functioning human-like intelligence in a box, but will be theory and algorithms of how the brain processes information.  This in turn can and probably will be used to build intelligent machines by piecing together the necessary parts as we see fit.  An analogy is we can model an ant colony digitally and the result is not to have a digital ant colony running around on screen (may have entertainment value but little else), but better internet routers based on the principles discovered.  Already, biologically based algorithms for machine vision are surpassing all other attempts thus far and that trend will continue.</p>
<p>I think a combined approach of current AI/engineering methods along with the new tools and ideas that computational neuroscience provide will be the best route towards intelligent machines of value to society.</p>
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		<title>By: frelkins</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393473</link>
		<dc:creator>frelkins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 23:28:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393473</guid>
		<description>@Will

I used to dance tango with a neuroscientist a lot. I once asked him this question myself, for which he had an interesting theory, based on discoveries about dreaming. Of course when we dream, the hippocampus sets up a slow wave, to which the amydagla contributes by somehow encouraging or activating so-called PGO waves from other parts of the brain, to set important visual centers in motion and thus coherently bring images to the dream.

All this stuff is happening when we sleep, and somehow the main scanning brain wave goes out to &quot;sweep up&quot; all these events so we can experience them at the level of our coherent selves. (Because even when I sleep I wake up and realize that dreams have happened to &quot;me.&quot;)

Said dancing neuroscientist argued therefore that brainwaves were perhaps important in coordinating our brain parts and gathering up all the disjointed crazy, million things happening at once perceptual input and allowing us to have an understandable, meaningful &quot;experience&quot; out of that. An important thing to note is that of the four kinds of brainwaves, while one predominates, they are all always there, a little bit.

So while we are in the brainwave state we call &quot;beta,&quot; chatting away, there is also always a trace amount of the other brainwaves, even the delta we associate with sleep. It may be that even when you are actively awake, small parts of your brain are actively asleep. I now use this as a convenient excuse all the time.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Will</p>
<p>I used to dance tango with a neuroscientist a lot. I once asked him this question myself, for which he had an interesting theory, based on discoveries about dreaming. Of course when we dream, the hippocampus sets up a slow wave, to which the amydagla contributes by somehow encouraging or activating so-called PGO waves from other parts of the brain, to set important visual centers in motion and thus coherently bring images to the dream.</p>
<p>All this stuff is happening when we sleep, and somehow the main scanning brain wave goes out to &#8220;sweep up&#8221; all these events so we can experience them at the level of our coherent selves. (Because even when I sleep I wake up and realize that dreams have happened to &#8220;me.&#8221;)</p>
<p>Said dancing neuroscientist argued therefore that brainwaves were perhaps important in coordinating our brain parts and gathering up all the disjointed crazy, million things happening at once perceptual input and allowing us to have an understandable, meaningful &#8220;experience&#8221; out of that. An important thing to note is that of the four kinds of brainwaves, while one predominates, they are all always there, a little bit.</p>
<p>So while we are in the brainwave state we call &#8220;beta,&#8221; chatting away, there is also always a trace amount of the other brainwaves, even the delta we associate with sleep. It may be that even when you are actively awake, small parts of your brain are actively asleep. I now use this as a convenient excuse all the time.</p>
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		<title>By: Will Pearson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393472</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Pearson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 22:13:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393472</guid>
		<description>One thing I am interested in that wasn&#039;t referenced in the document is longer range electrical activity than Ephatic effects. Brain waves may serve a long range regulatory function. I wonder why there are brain waves at all. Why and how is the electrical activity coordinated, is it a byproduct or a function? If it is coordinated function by the electrical activity itself, you get into the equivalent of intractable many body dynamics.

It may well be possible to simulate this more simply, but you would have to understand the function.


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One thing I am interested in that wasn&#8217;t referenced in the document is longer range electrical activity than Ephatic effects. Brain waves may serve a long range regulatory function. I wonder why there are brain waves at all. Why and how is the electrical activity coordinated, is it a byproduct or a function? If it is coordinated function by the electrical activity itself, you get into the equivalent of intractable many body dynamics.</p>
<p>It may well be possible to simulate this more simply, but you would have to understand the function.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393471</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 13:37:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393471</guid>
		<description>Well, that&#039;s certainly true - though &quot;hundreds of millions of dollars&quot; is peanuts out of the salaries of the multi-billionaires involved on the corporate side - like James Harris Simons, Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, that&#8217;s certainly true &#8211; though &#8220;hundreds of millions of dollars&#8221; is peanuts out of the salaries of the multi-billionaires involved on the corporate side &#8211; like James Harris Simons, Sergey Brin and Larry Page.</p>
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		<title>By: retired urologist</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393470</link>
		<dc:creator>retired urologist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 13:23:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393470</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s not what Modha said. He says governments are funding private companies right now, in a very big way.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s not what Modha said. He says governments are funding private companies right now, in a very big way.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/fhi-emulation-r.html#comment-393469</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 13:15:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/fhi-emulation-roadmap-out.html#comment-393469</guid>
		<description>Governments are the other one of the three scenarios that I bother listing in &lt;a HREF=&quot;http://alife.co.uk/essays/the_awakening_marketplace/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;The Awakening Marketplace&lt;/A&gt;. The US government agencies that may have an interest in superintelligence include DARPA and the NSA.

DARPA&#039;s efforts so far do not seem to be on a scale proportional to the scale of the opportunity the field represents.

The NSA has bigger computers and smarter employees, and so might also have a shot.  They might keep their superintelligence chained up in the basement, though.

In both cases, I suspect the problem is vision and interest. Governments don&#039;t exactly have a stellar record for innovaton in computer science.  ARPANET was cool - but since then the torch has mostly been carried by companies.  Maybe governments will muscle in on the field later on, when they can better see what is likely to happen.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Governments are the other one of the three scenarios that I bother listing in <a HREF="http://alife.co.uk/essays/the_awakening_marketplace/" rel="nofollow">The Awakening Marketplace</a>. The US government agencies that may have an interest in superintelligence include DARPA and the NSA.</p>
<p>DARPA&#8217;s efforts so far do not seem to be on a scale proportional to the scale of the opportunity the field represents.</p>
<p>The NSA has bigger computers and smarter employees, and so might also have a shot.  They might keep their superintelligence chained up in the basement, though.</p>
<p>In both cases, I suspect the problem is vision and interest. Governments don&#8217;t exactly have a stellar record for innovaton in computer science.  ARPANET was cool &#8211; but since then the torch has mostly been carried by companies.  Maybe governments will muscle in on the field later on, when they can better see what is likely to happen.</p>
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