Comments on: Election Gambling History http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Thu, 18 Mar 2010 06:22:50 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Nigel Eccles http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394555 Nigel Eccles Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:35:22 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394555 The big problem here is that punters generally don't care about 'socially useful' markets. They want short term markets about things they care about like sports or elections. If socially useful markets are going to work then there is going have to be a new way compensating knowledgeable punters. The big problem here is that punters generally don’t care about ’socially useful’ markets. They want short term markets about things they care about like sports or elections. If socially useful markets are going to work then there is going have to be a new way compensating knowledgeable punters.

]]> By: mjgeddes http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394554 mjgeddes Wed, 15 Oct 2008 07:31:34 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394554 John, Proper betting exchanges (like 'Betfair') allow you to either 'Back' (bet for) or 'Lay' (bet against) an outcome. So in theory there should be equal numbers of fraudsters for and against an outcome, and they cancel each other out. Also, where fraud is at work, there is often meta-betting on the fraud : sure a result may be fixed, but punters don't know which way, and they then bet on that ;) John,

Proper betting exchanges (like ‘Betfair’) allow you to either ‘Back’ (bet for) or ‘Lay’ (bet against) an outcome. So in theory there should be equal numbers of fraudsters for and against an outcome, and they cancel each other out.

Also, where fraud is at work, there is often meta-betting on the fraud : sure a result may be fixed, but punters don’t know which way, and they then bet on that ;)

]]> By: Daniel Burfoot http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394553 Daniel Burfoot Wed, 15 Oct 2008 06:48:12 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394553 "Bet or be silent" is an awesome rationalist edict. If you're not confident enough in your predictions to wager on them, they're worthless. There are lots of people inventing all kinds of wacky theories to invent the crisis. But the people we should be asking about what caused the crisis are John Paulson, George Soros, and James Simon: the managers who made billions by predicting the crash. They are the ones who understand. “Bet or be silent” is an awesome rationalist edict. If you’re not confident enough in your predictions to wager on them, they’re worthless.

There are lots of people inventing all kinds of wacky theories to invent the crisis. But the people we should be asking about what caused the crisis are John Paulson, George Soros, and James Simon: the managers who made billions by predicting the crash. They are the ones who understand.

]]> By: RBH http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394552 RBH Wed, 15 Oct 2008 05:28:06 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394552 <blockquote>"Bet or be silent."</blockquote>When I was growing up that was phrased as "Put yer money where yer mouth is!"

“Bet or be silent.”

When I was growing up that was phrased as “Put yer money where yer mouth is!”

]]> By: John Maxwell http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394551 John Maxwell Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:07:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394551 Gamblers do extreme things to modify an outcome if they've got a lot of money at stake. So why not just put a cap on the amount of money people are allowed to bet? That would also prevent rich lunatics from exerting too much sway. Gamblers do extreme things to modify an outcome if they’ve got a lot of money at stake. So why not just put a cap on the amount of money people are allowed to bet? That would also prevent rich lunatics from exerting too much sway.

]]> By: mjgeddes http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394550 mjgeddes Wed, 15 Oct 2008 00:22:44 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394550 Best betting market I've found so far is the 'Betfair' betting exchange (UK-based), which offers perfectly fair (100% return to punter) odds, but takes a 2%-5% commision from net profits. Lots of punters and high liquidity, lots of betting on all sports and seem to be evolving into the de facto leading global prediction market: <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" rel="nofollow">Betfair</a> Got some tips for readers: Melbourne Cup (Nov 4th)- greatest horse race in the world: great odds on the Irish horses 'Septimus', and 'Profound Beauty', top European stayers - get on! Caulfield Cup (18th Oct) and Cox Plate (25th Oct) 'Littorio' at great odds for the Caulfied, but don't count out the Aussie champ 'Weekend Hussler' in the Cox. -- Unfortunately Robin, Internet betting seems to be illegal in the US in most states, which is probably what is hampering the growth of prediction markets there. New Zealand on the other hand, just set up a new prediction market, in which a paper of yours was quoted: <a href="https://www.ipredict.co.nz/" rel="nofollow">iPredict</a> and in Europe and Australia you can't walk down a city street without passing at least a few bet shops. Betting's a way of life in Australia, and the whole nation stops for the running of the Melbourne Cup. As champions of capitalism, the States does seem to have some strange regulations at times... Best betting market I’ve found so far is the ‘Betfair’ betting exchange (UK-based), which offers perfectly fair (100% return to punter) odds, but takes a 2%-5% commision from net profits. Lots of punters and high liquidity, lots of betting on all sports and seem to be evolving into the de facto leading global prediction market:

Betfair

Got some tips for readers:

Melbourne Cup (Nov 4th)- greatest horse race in the world: great odds on the Irish horses ‘Septimus’, and ‘Profound Beauty’, top European stayers – get on!

Caulfield Cup (18th Oct) and Cox Plate (25th Oct)

‘Littorio’ at great odds for the Caulfied, but don’t count out the Aussie champ ‘Weekend Hussler’ in the Cox.

–

Unfortunately Robin, Internet betting seems to be illegal in the US in most states, which is probably what is hampering the growth of prediction markets there.

New Zealand on the other hand, just set up a new prediction market, in which a paper of yours was quoted:

iPredict

and in Europe and Australia you can’t walk down a city street without passing at least a few bet shops. Betting’s a way of life in Australia, and the whole nation stops for the running of the Melbourne Cup.

As champions of capitalism, the States does seem to have some strange regulations at times…

]]> By: Rolf Andreassen http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394549 Rolf Andreassen Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:55:08 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394549 "Rolf, sorry, fixed the typo. " Aw. It was much more entertaining the old way. :( “Rolf, sorry, fixed the typo. ”

Aw. It was much more entertaining the old way. :(

]]> By: scott clark http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394548 scott clark Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:02:40 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394548 I've also heard a few people talk of dismantling the NYSE. A public high school biology teacher as the leader of that chorus of banning advocates, if I remember correctly. I proceeded to defuse their position, my success remains in doubt. Also, by banning shortselling, and forcing changes in the firms capital structures, is the government not, in effect, dismantling the machinery of the financial markets in order that the markets spit out the message that most people would prefer? Not an outright ban, but moving in that direction. I’ve also heard a few people talk of dismantling the NYSE. A public high school biology teacher as the leader of that chorus of banning advocates, if I remember correctly. I proceeded to defuse their position, my success remains in doubt.

Also, by banning shortselling, and forcing changes in the firms capital structures, is the government not, in effect, dismantling the machinery of the financial markets in order that the markets spit out the message that most people would prefer? Not an outright ban, but moving in that direction.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394547 Robin Hanson Tue, 14 Oct 2008 16:40:14 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394547 Rolf, sorry, fixed the typo. Rolf, sorry, fixed the typo.

]]> By: Stuart Armstrong http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/election-gambli.html#comment-394546 Stuart Armstrong Tue, 14 Oct 2008 16:39:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/election-gambling-history.html#comment-394546 And the big question... how accurate were those old betting markets? And the big question… how accurate were those old betting markets?

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