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	<title>Comments on: Obama Donors As News</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Jeremy</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393889</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeremy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 18:39:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393889</guid>
		<description>&quot;(&#039;1) didn&#039;t abandon public financing when Obama did; 2) didn&#039;t pursue the Rv. Wright angle; 3) ...&#039;)*. &quot;

Didn&#039;t suggest he supports terrorists? Oh wait...
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;(&#8217;1) didn&#8217;t abandon public financing when Obama did; 2) didn&#8217;t pursue the Rv. Wright angle; 3) &#8230;&#8217;)*. &#8221;</p>
<p>Didn&#8217;t suggest he supports terrorists? Oh wait&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: g</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393888</link>
		<dc:creator>g</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 17:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393888</guid>
		<description>Brian, I&#039;m not sure it&#039;s exactly a *critique* of a candidate; Robin&#039;s post doesn&#039;t say anything about Obama&#039;s policies or character or competence or anything. But it does seem that an unacknowledged purpose of Robin&#039;s post, as of several of his political posts, might be to help the Republicans&#039; chances and/or hurt the Democrats&#039;. Though I&#039;d have thought he might have more effective ways of doing that, so perhaps instead we should ask what he&#039;s signalling to whom...
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian, I&#8217;m not sure it&#8217;s exactly a *critique* of a candidate; Robin&#8217;s post doesn&#8217;t say anything about Obama&#8217;s policies or character or competence or anything. But it does seem that an unacknowledged purpose of Robin&#8217;s post, as of several of his political posts, might be to help the Republicans&#8217; chances and/or hurt the Democrats&#8217;. Though I&#8217;d have thought he might have more effective ways of doing that, so perhaps instead we should ask what he&#8217;s signalling to whom&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: gwern</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393887</link>
		<dc:creator>gwern</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 16:48:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393887</guid>
		<description>Missy: I think McCain handicapped himself there, too. Once Obama turned his back on his promise to use public financing like McCain (something that really stuck in my craw, as much as I generally like Obama), continuing to use public financing was just hurting his chances for no benefit. I wouldn&#039;t be surprised if after the election, McCain supporters draw up a list of how McCain sabotaged himself because of confused notions of honor and decency (&#039;1) didn&#039;t abandon public financing when Obama did; 2) didn&#039;t pursue the Rv. Wright angle; 3) ...&#039;)*.

*(It&#039;ll be too bad in a sense, since you just know Republican strategists are going to conclude that they didn&#039;t go negative or critical enough, and the next campaign is going to be that much more unpleasant to watch.)
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Missy: I think McCain handicapped himself there, too. Once Obama turned his back on his promise to use public financing like McCain (something that really stuck in my craw, as much as I generally like Obama), continuing to use public financing was just hurting his chances for no benefit. I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if after the election, McCain supporters draw up a list of how McCain sabotaged himself because of confused notions of honor and decency (&#8217;1) didn&#8217;t abandon public financing when Obama did; 2) didn&#8217;t pursue the Rv. Wright angle; 3) &#8230;&#8217;)*.</p>
<p>*(It&#8217;ll be too bad in a sense, since you just know Republican strategists are going to conclude that they didn&#8217;t go negative or critical enough, and the next campaign is going to be that much more unpleasant to watch.)</p>
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		<title>By: simon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393886</link>
		<dc:creator>simon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:34:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393886</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Are you suggesting that the latter should be ignored because it&#039;s ... how shall I put this? ... &quot;merely a side effect&quot;?&lt;/em&gt;

Well, perhaps one might not ignore it, but it should be acknowledged that it&#039;s not relevant to the main point of the post.

Really though, I doubt Robin intended the words &quot;to signal private info about candidate quality&quot; to necessarily mean that the public interest theory excluded the tool theory.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Are you suggesting that the latter should be ignored because it&#8217;s &#8230; how shall I put this? &#8230; &#8220;merely a side effect&#8221;?</em></p>
<p>Well, perhaps one might not ignore it, but it should be acknowledged that it&#8217;s not relevant to the main point of the post.</p>
<p>Really though, I doubt Robin intended the words &#8220;to signal private info about candidate quality&#8221; to necessarily mean that the public interest theory excluded the tool theory.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart Armstrong</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393885</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart Armstrong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 14:12:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393885</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Stuart, the alternatives are to accept or reject the private interest theory. Unless some of the other theories you can think of offer good reasons to to limit campaign contributions, rejecting the private interest theory is rejecting campaign finance reform.&lt;/i&gt;

Ah, I see; you should have made that point much clearer in your post. The simplest interpretation that I have is that private interest theory is more likely to be correct for large donations. From the point of a politician, too, it is much easier to do a small specific favour that greatly aids one donor, than a large favour that slightly aids lots of small donors at once. Reciprocity, threats, etc... are also much easier for a single large donor.

I&#039;m not entirely sure what &quot;campaign finance reform&quot; means in an american context, but the implications of the above would be that only large donations are a problem - or donations from a large organised class (say, trade unionists) that share similar interests.

The obvious legislative fix would be to rule out large donations (easy to do) and to rule out organised small donations (rather more tricky; the first step would be to forbid mass donation campaigns by organisations other than political parties). No idea what the current legal situation is in the US at the moment (and the second fix has some quite troubling freedom of speech implications).

&lt;i&gt;Brian and g, you don&#039;t have to intend to send a signal for a signal to be sent.&lt;/i&gt;

Sorry there Robin, but your post clearly says &quot;which says we donate to signal private info about candidate quality&quot;, implying that donors were intending to send that signal.

&lt;i&gt;Paul, given your assumptions it seems you should take Obama&#039;s rich donors as bad news about Obama.&lt;/i&gt;

I would read it that way.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Stuart, the alternatives are to accept or reject the private interest theory. Unless some of the other theories you can think of offer good reasons to to limit campaign contributions, rejecting the private interest theory is rejecting campaign finance reform.</i></p>
<p>Ah, I see; you should have made that point much clearer in your post. The simplest interpretation that I have is that private interest theory is more likely to be correct for large donations. From the point of a politician, too, it is much easier to do a small specific favour that greatly aids one donor, than a large favour that slightly aids lots of small donors at once. Reciprocity, threats, etc&#8230; are also much easier for a single large donor.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not entirely sure what &#8220;campaign finance reform&#8221; means in an american context, but the implications of the above would be that only large donations are a problem &#8211; or donations from a large organised class (say, trade unionists) that share similar interests.</p>
<p>The obvious legislative fix would be to rule out large donations (easy to do) and to rule out organised small donations (rather more tricky; the first step would be to forbid mass donation campaigns by organisations other than political parties). No idea what the current legal situation is in the US at the moment (and the second fix has some quite troubling freedom of speech implications).</p>
<p><i>Brian and g, you don&#8217;t have to intend to send a signal for a signal to be sent.</i></p>
<p>Sorry there Robin, but your post clearly says &#8220;which says we donate to signal private info about candidate quality&#8221;, implying that donors were intending to send that signal.</p>
<p><i>Paul, given your assumptions it seems you should take Obama&#8217;s rich donors as bad news about Obama.</i></p>
<p>I would read it that way.</p>
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		<title>By: Unnamed</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393884</link>
		<dc:creator>Unnamed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:43:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393884</guid>
		<description>The obvious solution is that people do trade donations for favors if they can, but $2300 isn&#039;t nearly enough to buy a favor from a President.

We could count this as a version of 2a, where the &quot;aberration&quot; is that Obama&#039;s donors are required to follow campaign finance laws that cap donations at $2300.  Or, we could count it as a variation on 1, where we reject the theory that most donations are attempts to buy favors, but still support limits on campaign financing because, in the absence of those limits (which are market-destroying price controls), there will be enough donations-for-favors to be a problem.  The non-favor-seeking donors&#039; motivations aren&#039;t essential here, but they&#039;re probably pretty similar to the motivations of people who donate to other charities &amp; issue groups.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The obvious solution is that people do trade donations for favors if they can, but $2300 isn&#8217;t nearly enough to buy a favor from a President.</p>
<p>We could count this as a version of 2a, where the &#8220;aberration&#8221; is that Obama&#8217;s donors are required to follow campaign finance laws that cap donations at $2300.  Or, we could count it as a variation on 1, where we reject the theory that most donations are attempts to buy favors, but still support limits on campaign financing because, in the absence of those limits (which are market-destroying price controls), there will be enough donations-for-favors to be a problem.  The non-favor-seeking donors&#8217; motivations aren&#8217;t essential here, but they&#8217;re probably pretty similar to the motivations of people who donate to other charities &#038; issue groups.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Jaress</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393883</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Jaress</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:04:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393883</guid>
		<description>Robin, you very clearly set up signaling as a motive.

You also very clearly described &quot;private interest&quot; as &quot;in trade for favors.&quot;  There&#039;s a world of difference between buying favors and donating to someone who&#039;s already planning to benefit your group at the expense of other groups.

Your post really looks like a critique of a candidate disguised as an analysis where the candidate is just a data point.  Why contrast Obama and Bush?  From what I&#039;ve heard, in terms of total amount and reliance on small donations, they&#039;re near each other and away from everyone else.

The top two fund-raisers are also the top two in small donations. Doesn&#039;t that seem a little more significant than which one is slightly more or less than the other?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin, you very clearly set up signaling as a motive.</p>
<p>You also very clearly described &#8220;private interest&#8221; as &#8220;in trade for favors.&#8221;  There&#8217;s a world of difference between buying favors and donating to someone who&#8217;s already planning to benefit your group at the expense of other groups.</p>
<p>Your post really looks like a critique of a candidate disguised as an analysis where the candidate is just a data point.  Why contrast Obama and Bush?  From what I&#8217;ve heard, in terms of total amount and reliance on small donations, they&#8217;re near each other and away from everyone else.</p>
<p>The top two fund-raisers are also the top two in small donations. Doesn&#8217;t that seem a little more significant than which one is slightly more or less than the other?</p>
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		<title>By: g</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393882</link>
		<dc:creator>g</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 08:35:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393882</guid>
		<description>Simon, this post does (at least) two things: it makes an argument based on signalling, and it makes claims about why people donate to political campaigns. Are you suggesting that the latter should be ignored because it&#039;s ... how shall I put this? ... &quot;merely a side effect&quot;?

I expect the Powers That Be will notice for themselves, but just in case: &quot;Missy&quot;&#039;s comments above are not only content-free but also spam.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon, this post does (at least) two things: it makes an argument based on signalling, and it makes claims about why people donate to political campaigns. Are you suggesting that the latter should be ignored because it&#8217;s &#8230; how shall I put this? &#8230; &#8220;merely a side effect&#8221;?</p>
<p>I expect the Powers That Be will notice for themselves, but just in case: &#8220;Missy&#8221;&#8216;s comments above are not only content-free but also spam.</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393881</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 03:13:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393881</guid>
		<description>In Freedomnomics John Lott argued that campaign contributions don&#039;t have much effect on the outcome of an election or the behavior of the candidate once in office. It reminded me of your colleague Bryan Caplan&#039;s attack on the self-interested rational voter theory, although it occupied only a small portion of his book rather than (as with Bryan) the entire thing.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In Freedomnomics John Lott argued that campaign contributions don&#8217;t have much effect on the outcome of an election or the behavior of the candidate once in office. It reminded me of your colleague Bryan Caplan&#8217;s attack on the self-interested rational voter theory, although it occupied only a small portion of his book rather than (as with Bryan) the entire thing.</p>
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		<title>By: simon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/donations-as-ne.html#comment-393880</link>
		<dc:creator>simon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 01:24:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/10/obama-donors-as-news.html#comment-393880</guid>
		<description>The post is about signalling; it makes no difference to the argument of the post whether or not the signalling is the primary purpose of donation or merely a side effect.

&lt;em&gt;Simon, what in Roger&#039;s comment suggests that he thinks the private interest theory doesn&#039;t apply to Obama donors?&lt;/em&gt;

I interpreted his comment incorrectly. My apologies.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The post is about signalling; it makes no difference to the argument of the post whether or not the signalling is the primary purpose of donation or merely a side effect.</p>
<p><em>Simon, what in Roger&#8217;s comment suggests that he thinks the private interest theory doesn&#8217;t apply to Obama donors?</em></p>
<p>I interpreted his comment incorrectly. My apologies.</p>
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