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	<title>Comments on: The Hope Premium</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Doug S.</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395553</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 01:53:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395553</guid>
		<description>&quot;Why do you think young children want to be firefighters and astronauts, and not investment bankers or accountants?&quot;

My brother wanted to be an investment banker.

And, as of a few weeks ago, he succeeded, becoming an employee of Goldman Sachs.

Of course, this really isn&#039;t the best time to go into investment banking...
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Why do you think young children want to be firefighters and astronauts, and not investment bankers or accountants?&#8221;</p>
<p>My brother wanted to be an investment banker.</p>
<p>And, as of a few weeks ago, he succeeded, becoming an employee of Goldman Sachs.</p>
<p>Of course, this really isn&#8217;t the best time to go into investment banking&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Doug S.</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395552</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 01:50:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395552</guid>
		<description>&quot;The same is true for going to college nowadays. If you sum up how much it is going to cost you, including opportunity cost, it&#039;s simply not worth it. So why is everyone still doing it?&quot;

Really? Not having a college degree will still get your resume immediately put into the &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_file&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; circular file&lt;/a&gt; of almost all HR departments - and well-paying jobs that don&#039;t require a degree generally have their own training period. (You have to train as an apprentice before you can work as a plumber, for example.) According to my parents, at least, college degrees do tend to pay for themselves in the long run.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The same is true for going to college nowadays. If you sum up how much it is going to cost you, including opportunity cost, it&#8217;s simply not worth it. So why is everyone still doing it?&#8221;</p>
<p>Really? Not having a college degree will still get your resume immediately put into the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_file" rel="nofollow"> circular file</a> of almost all HR departments &#8211; and well-paying jobs that don&#8217;t require a degree generally have their own training period. (You have to train as an apprentice before you can work as a plumber, for example.) According to my parents, at least, college degrees do tend to pay for themselves in the long run.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395551</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 23:52:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395551</guid>
		<description>&quot;&lt;i&gt;It&#039;s a big mistake to think dreams are unreal&lt;/i&gt;&quot;

This seems like a dumb conflation of vehicle and content. Obviously people do dream (who ever made the &quot;mistake&quot; of denying this?), and just as obviously what they dream &lt;i&gt;about&lt;/i&gt; is a merely hypothetical (i.e. non-real) state of affairs.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;<i>It&#8217;s a big mistake to think dreams are unreal</i>&#8221;</p>
<p>This seems like a dumb conflation of vehicle and content. Obviously people do dream (who ever made the &#8220;mistake&#8221; of denying this?), and just as obviously what they dream <i>about</i> is a merely hypothetical (i.e. non-real) state of affairs.</p>
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		<title>By: Roland</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395550</link>
		<dc:creator>Roland</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:32:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395550</guid>
		<description>The same is true for going to college nowadays. If you sum up how much it is going to cost you, including opportunity cost, it&#039;s simply not worth it. So why is everyone still doing it? I think it&#039;s a problem of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/cached-thoughts.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;cached thoughts&lt;/a&gt;.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The same is true for going to college nowadays. If you sum up how much it is going to cost you, including opportunity cost, it&#8217;s simply not worth it. So why is everyone still doing it? I think it&#8217;s a problem of <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/cached-thoughts.html" rel="nofollow">cached thoughts</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Caledonian</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395549</link>
		<dc:creator>Caledonian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:28:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395549</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;So by this logic, why don&#039;t we see more poor businessmen working day jobs as waiters while they struggle with their low-paying business careers?&lt;/blockquote&gt;  It&#039;s about status, not money.  Businessmen are thought very poorly of, and they&#039;re seen relatively infrequently in the media.  Actors are idolized, and most people are very familiar with them.

Why do you think young children want to be firefighters and astronauts, and not investment bankers or accountants?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>So by this logic, why don&#8217;t we see more poor businessmen working day jobs as waiters while they struggle with their low-paying business careers?</p></blockquote>
<p>  It&#8217;s about status, not money.  Businessmen are thought very poorly of, and they&#8217;re seen relatively infrequently in the media.  Actors are idolized, and most people are very familiar with them.</p>
<p>Why do you think young children want to be firefighters and astronauts, and not investment bankers or accountants?</p>
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		<title>By: michael e sullivan</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395548</link>
		<dc:creator>michael e sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:12:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395548</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Performing is fun. Plenty of actors, musicians, writers, etc. &quot;work&quot; for literally nothing, simply because they like doing it.&lt;/i&gt;

I think this is crucial.  A lot of people feel very successful just to be making a living at all in their field.  total Utility is greater than making 3-4x as much money doing something else.

Also, to make a living at all, you have to be significantly better than the top tier of amateurs in some way, to some audience.  Sometimes it&#039;s just about being significantly better at finding and satisfying a market.  I know a lot of amateur and professional musicians.  Many of the professionals aren&#039;t necessarily better *musicians* in the fine art sense.  But they are entertainers as much as musicians and are much better at giving the audience what they want than most amateur musicians.


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Performing is fun. Plenty of actors, musicians, writers, etc. &#8220;work&#8221; for literally nothing, simply because they like doing it.</i></p>
<p>I think this is crucial.  A lot of people feel very successful just to be making a living at all in their field.  total Utility is greater than making 3-4x as much money doing something else.</p>
<p>Also, to make a living at all, you have to be significantly better than the top tier of amateurs in some way, to some audience.  Sometimes it&#8217;s just about being significantly better at finding and satisfying a market.  I know a lot of amateur and professional musicians.  Many of the professionals aren&#8217;t necessarily better *musicians* in the fine art sense.  But they are entertainers as much as musicians and are much better at giving the audience what they want than most amateur musicians.</p>
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		<title>By: HH</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395547</link>
		<dc:creator>HH</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:18:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395547</guid>
		<description>&quot;It&#039;s a big mistake to think dreams are unreal and what is called real life is real.&quot;

Am I reading this correctly? I think it&#039;s trying to say [poorly] that utility derived from dreams is no less real than utility derived from material things. That is, if you&#039;re happy hoping to become a superstar, you&#039;re not fundamentally differently happy from someone who&#039;s happy with a lot of money and stuff. In essence, it&#039;s basic economics: your utility from being and actor/waiter is the sum of salary+(job satisfaction)+(utility of hope). Whatever you lose on the first one you may get on the latter two, as compared to someone who has a higher salary but has little hope at superstardom.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a big mistake to think dreams are unreal and what is called real life is real.&#8221;</p>
<p>Am I reading this correctly? I think it&#8217;s trying to say [poorly] that utility derived from dreams is no less real than utility derived from material things. That is, if you&#8217;re happy hoping to become a superstar, you&#8217;re not fundamentally differently happy from someone who&#8217;s happy with a lot of money and stuff. In essence, it&#8217;s basic economics: your utility from being and actor/waiter is the sum of salary+(job satisfaction)+(utility of hope). Whatever you lose on the first one you may get on the latter two, as compared to someone who has a higher salary but has little hope at superstardom.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug S.</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395546</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:02:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395546</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s another thing to consider:

Performing is &lt;b&gt;fun&lt;/b&gt;. Plenty of actors, musicians, writers, etc. &quot;work&quot; for &lt;b&gt;literally&lt;/b&gt; nothing, simply because they like doing it.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s another thing to consider:</p>
<p>Performing is <b>fun</b>. Plenty of actors, musicians, writers, etc. &#8220;work&#8221; for <b>literally</b> nothing, simply because they like doing it.</p>
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		<title>By: Phil Goetz</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395545</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil Goetz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:38:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395545</guid>
		<description>That is freaking brilliant.

I don&#039;t think it will work, but it&#039;s still brilliant.

BTW, Paul Newman made $100,000,000/yr on his salad dressings.  Superstar businessmen make more money than superstar actors.  So by this logic, why don&#039;t we see more poor businessmen working day jobs as waiters while they struggle with their low-paying business careers?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That is freaking brilliant.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think it will work, but it&#8217;s still brilliant.</p>
<p>BTW, Paul Newman made $100,000,000/yr on his salad dressings.  Superstar businessmen make more money than superstar actors.  So by this logic, why don&#8217;t we see more poor businessmen working day jobs as waiters while they struggle with their low-paying business careers?</p>
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		<title>By: nordsieck</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/the-hope-premiu.html#comment-395544</link>
		<dc:creator>nordsieck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:07:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/the-hope-premium.html#comment-395544</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Jonathan Alter recently wrote that we should perhaps pay teachers more, and pay their superstars a lot.  I think the data suggest that if we start paying really large salaries for superstar teachers, we could pay a few of them more, but pay them in aggregate less.  That is, we would have just as much supply if we offered them the hope of become very wealthy, with a lower average pay, than our current system, which pays them a rather solid pay but with very limited upside.  No one with really large ambitions goes into education precisely because they top has a low ceiling.  Hope is worth something, in terms of a higher price, and thus lower  return.&lt;/i&gt;

This only works if you can amortize the high salary of the superstars over a large base of subscribers.  This works with movie actors, musicians and sports stars, but not terribly well with teachers, no matter the success of the University of Phoenix.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Jonathan Alter recently wrote that we should perhaps pay teachers more, and pay their superstars a lot.  I think the data suggest that if we start paying really large salaries for superstar teachers, we could pay a few of them more, but pay them in aggregate less.  That is, we would have just as much supply if we offered them the hope of become very wealthy, with a lower average pay, than our current system, which pays them a rather solid pay but with very limited upside.  No one with really large ambitions goes into education precisely because they top has a low ceiling.  Hope is worth something, in terms of a higher price, and thus lower  return.</i></p>
<p>This only works if you can amortize the high salary of the superstars over a large base of subscribers.  This works with movie actors, musicians and sports stars, but not terribly well with teachers, no matter the success of the University of Phoenix.</p>
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