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	<title>Comments on: Is Carbon Lost Cause?</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Ralf</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396802</link>
		<dc:creator>Ralf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 14:30:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396802</guid>
		<description>“Even if we could develop a non-warming energy tech, we would face the challenge of convincing the rest of the world to forgo the convenience of burning the oil/coal they have, using infrastructure already built for that purpose.”

Yes, but a fairly convincing argument would be if these techs are cheaper than the convenience of burning oil/coal. Google has an &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.google.com/intl/en/press/pressrel/20071127_green.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; interesting initiative &lt;/a&gt; for that purpose.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“Even if we could develop a non-warming energy tech, we would face the challenge of convincing the rest of the world to forgo the convenience of burning the oil/coal they have, using infrastructure already built for that purpose.”</p>
<p>Yes, but a fairly convincing argument would be if these techs are cheaper than the convenience of burning oil/coal. Google has an <a href="http://www.google.com/intl/en/press/pressrel/20071127_green.html" rel="nofollow"> interesting initiative </a> for that purpose.</p>
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		<title>By: Ian O'Clothcap</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396801</link>
		<dc:creator>Ian O'Clothcap</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 01:13:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396801</guid>
		<description>Julian. So all of Greenland is down hill? Silly me. What a fool I&#039;ve been. Thank you for setting me straight on that.
To the various cavemen wannabes. 1. CO two increase is harmless to climate and beneficial to biomass. That has always been and evermore so shall be. There is no EVIDENCE to the contrary. 2. It is not even conclusive the assumed effects of water vapour are correct. 3. Kyoto and a partridge in a pear tree are about as relevant to climate as my last bum burp. 4. That damned Gore&#039;s hot air has pissed off Lovelock&#039;s Gaia and its now PDOing all over. Oh look at that damned AMO. Sunspots are just a fond memory of warmer days. Damn NASA sneaking behind Hansen&#039;s back and proving hot air is as relevant to rapid sea ice disappearance as idiot Branson sprout expeditions carving the ice up. Carbon dioxide poisoning the sea. At last. Everything is now known about about the deep blue. EVIDENCE? Oh that poor coral, only just got established and wham the sea that covered the land and gave it life is taking it back again. Or is it a cycle coral is well used to? Was it 30 metres down that living coral was recently discovered. That invisible friend is some kind of joker... or was it a sceptic plant? Hmm I wonder. I see double glazing company stocks are up in the warming upper climates. Must be from the increasing noise of toasted kiddies forcing sales.
Even were the co2 nonsense true, C oh two is a very, very popular product, and addictive. Tried living without it? Withdrawal sets in very, very quickly. Thank gods it is free. Oh it isn&#039;t we now pay for common property. I am sometimes amazed at the intelligence portrayed by inertia. As with the inertia to do sfa about its reduction. Co2 output by humans only increases. Oo, oo, (ape talk for) Hawaii have led the world in the pretend reduction frenzy, seen their latest effort? And that despite world class smoothing effort.
I hope that ostriches and sceptical lepers alike found my insane humour amusing.
I would ask of some commenters if they lived in a house built of cow dung, or worse, would they turn their nose up at economic development to make activist delusion/illusionists happy??

Robin, sir, may I reproduce your fine article on my blog? I recommend you look first, you may find it unsuitable, although I hope not.
I am schitzoid, blog wise. http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap - http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap2 - http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap3
(but apart from this socially irritating refusal to swallow BS, personality near normal - whatever that is)

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Julian. So all of Greenland is down hill? Silly me. What a fool I&#8217;ve been. Thank you for setting me straight on that.<br />
To the various cavemen wannabes. 1. CO two increase is harmless to climate and beneficial to biomass. That has always been and evermore so shall be. There is no EVIDENCE to the contrary. 2. It is not even conclusive the assumed effects of water vapour are correct. 3. Kyoto and a partridge in a pear tree are about as relevant to climate as my last bum burp. 4. That damned Gore&#8217;s hot air has pissed off Lovelock&#8217;s Gaia and its now PDOing all over. Oh look at that damned AMO. Sunspots are just a fond memory of warmer days. Damn NASA sneaking behind Hansen&#8217;s back and proving hot air is as relevant to rapid sea ice disappearance as idiot Branson sprout expeditions carving the ice up. Carbon dioxide poisoning the sea. At last. Everything is now known about about the deep blue. EVIDENCE? Oh that poor coral, only just got established and wham the sea that covered the land and gave it life is taking it back again. Or is it a cycle coral is well used to? Was it 30 metres down that living coral was recently discovered. That invisible friend is some kind of joker&#8230; or was it a sceptic plant? Hmm I wonder. I see double glazing company stocks are up in the warming upper climates. Must be from the increasing noise of toasted kiddies forcing sales.<br />
Even were the co2 nonsense true, C oh two is a very, very popular product, and addictive. Tried living without it? Withdrawal sets in very, very quickly. Thank gods it is free. Oh it isn&#8217;t we now pay for common property. I am sometimes amazed at the intelligence portrayed by inertia. As with the inertia to do sfa about its reduction. Co2 output by humans only increases. Oo, oo, (ape talk for) Hawaii have led the world in the pretend reduction frenzy, seen their latest effort? And that despite world class smoothing effort.<br />
I hope that ostriches and sceptical lepers alike found my insane humour amusing.<br />
I would ask of some commenters if they lived in a house built of cow dung, or worse, would they turn their nose up at economic development to make activist delusion/illusionists happy??</p>
<p>Robin, sir, may I reproduce your fine article on my blog? I recommend you look first, you may find it unsuitable, although I hope not.<br />
I am schitzoid, blog wise. <a href="http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap" rel="nofollow">http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap</a> &#8211; <a href="http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap2" rel="nofollow">http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap2</a> &#8211; <a href="http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap3" rel="nofollow">http://my.telegraph.co.uk/clothcap3</a><br />
(but apart from this socially irritating refusal to swallow BS, personality near normal &#8211; whatever that is)</p>
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		<title>By: Julian Morrison</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396800</link>
		<dc:creator>Julian Morrison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 00:07:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396800</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m thinking... you know the way floating ice doesn&#039;t count, because it&#039;s already displacing exactly its melt volume? So nobody worries about water levels from the Arctic pack-ice. But that implies: the ice doesn&#039;t have to 100% liquefy. It just has to slide off into the sea as slabs, and it will have already displaced as much as melting.

Does land get more slippery to ice as temperature goes up?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m thinking&#8230; you know the way floating ice doesn&#8217;t count, because it&#8217;s already displacing exactly its melt volume? So nobody worries about water levels from the Arctic pack-ice. But that implies: the ice doesn&#8217;t have to 100% liquefy. It just has to slide off into the sea as slabs, and it will have already displaced as much as melting.</p>
<p>Does land get more slippery to ice as temperature goes up?</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396799</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:35:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396799</guid>
		<description>200m is wrong: melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise, and melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise - not that it&#039;s going to happen any time soon:

&lt;BLOCKQUOTE&gt;&lt;EM&gt;The Greenland ice sheet has huge inertia - it will take a thousand years to melt it.

The Antarctic looks even more unshiftable: ice five miles thick and  temperatures 37 degrees below zero down at the pole.&lt;/EM&gt;&lt;/BLOCKQUOTE&gt;

- &lt;a HREF=&quot;http://timtyler.org/tundra_reclamation/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://timtyler.org/tundra_reclamation/&lt;/A&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>200m is wrong: melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise, and melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise &#8211; not that it&#8217;s going to happen any time soon:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>The Greenland ice sheet has huge inertia &#8211; it will take a thousand years to melt it.</p>
<p>The Antarctic looks even more unshiftable: ice five miles thick and  temperatures 37 degrees below zero down at the pole.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>- <a HREF="http://timtyler.org/tundra_reclamation/" rel="nofollow">http://timtyler.org/tundra_reclamation/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Michael Tobis</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396798</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Tobis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:03:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396798</guid>
		<description>Ben is substantively wrong on two of his three points to my knowledge and I have suspicions about the third.

Re ocean acidification: The buffering processes are slow. Equilibration takes centuries. The ocean will take a hit the likes of which it has possibly never seen, or has possible seen 65,000,000 years ago at the paleocene/eocene boundary.

Re: temperature of the Antarctic interior: Nobody seriously suggests melting of East Antarctica. West Antarctic ice sheet sits on the ocean bottom and may become mechanically unstable with modest temperature increases. Also Greenland may well melt; it did melt in the previous interglacial. Total sea level rise at risk is in excess of 10 meters. (Of course, if Tim Tyler gets his way we are talking about 200 meters. so check the altitude of any real estate you may own before backing him up.)

Re: barrier reef; it is entirely possible that corals are sensitive to peak temperature; hence even if the statistics of temperature are merely smoothly shifted it is entirely possible that the periods of heat stress may be greatly expanded. I don&#039;t know about this for sure but given his arguments on the other two points I&#039;d bet this one is wrong too.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ben is substantively wrong on two of his three points to my knowledge and I have suspicions about the third.</p>
<p>Re ocean acidification: The buffering processes are slow. Equilibration takes centuries. The ocean will take a hit the likes of which it has possibly never seen, or has possible seen 65,000,000 years ago at the paleocene/eocene boundary.</p>
<p>Re: temperature of the Antarctic interior: Nobody seriously suggests melting of East Antarctica. West Antarctic ice sheet sits on the ocean bottom and may become mechanically unstable with modest temperature increases. Also Greenland may well melt; it did melt in the previous interglacial. Total sea level rise at risk is in excess of 10 meters. (Of course, if Tim Tyler gets his way we are talking about 200 meters. so check the altitude of any real estate you may own before backing him up.)</p>
<p>Re: barrier reef; it is entirely possible that corals are sensitive to peak temperature; hence even if the statistics of temperature are merely smoothly shifted it is entirely possible that the periods of heat stress may be greatly expanded. I don&#8217;t know about this for sure but given his arguments on the other two points I&#8217;d bet this one is wrong too.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart Armstrong</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396797</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart Armstrong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:42:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396797</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Stuart, what evidence is there for this gateway worry model?&lt;/i&gt;

My evidence is anecdotal and from personal experience (another way of saying &quot;no real evidence&quot;). But since the evidence you presented was no stronger on the issue of how people worry, I thought I&#039;d present mine. It turns on the fact that the most sucessful way I&#039;ve found of convincing people to worry about future events is to start our with global warming, and work in other issues after.

Conversely, from a few conversation where I haven&#039;t taken that approach, I&#039;ve found that unconcern with future risks in general is highly corellated with unconcern about global warming in particular.

&lt;i&gt;Do you think there is no limit to the number of distant future issues we can have many people consider in depth all at once?&lt;/i&gt;

Of course not, but we are nowhere near the saturation point.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Stuart, what evidence is there for this gateway worry model?</i></p>
<p>My evidence is anecdotal and from personal experience (another way of saying &#8220;no real evidence&#8221;). But since the evidence you presented was no stronger on the issue of how people worry, I thought I&#8217;d present mine. It turns on the fact that the most sucessful way I&#8217;ve found of convincing people to worry about future events is to start our with global warming, and work in other issues after.</p>
<p>Conversely, from a few conversation where I haven&#8217;t taken that approach, I&#8217;ve found that unconcern with future risks in general is highly corellated with unconcern about global warming in particular.</p>
<p><i>Do you think there is no limit to the number of distant future issues we can have many people consider in depth all at once?</i></p>
<p>Of course not, but we are nowhere near the saturation point.</p>
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		<title>By: Maggie's Farm</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396803</link>
		<dc:creator>Maggie's Farm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:03:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396803</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;Weds. links&lt;/strong&gt;

Paglia:The witch-trial hysteria of the past two incendiary weeks unfortunately reveals a disturbing trend in the Democratic Party, which has worsened over the past decade. Democrats are quick to attack the religiosity of Republicans, but Democratic ideolo
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Weds. links</strong></p>
<p>Paglia:The witch-trial hysteria of the past two incendiary weeks unfortunately reveals a disturbing trend in the Democratic Party, which has worsened over the past decade. Democrats are quick to attack the religiosity of Republicans, but Democratic ideolo</p>
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		<title>By: Ben</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396796</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:35:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396796</guid>
		<description>I have rarely seen such bad assumptions.

Higher carbon dioxide will cause ocean acidification. Yes, by a marginal degree (a tenth of a pH at most, we are talking about trace gases in a highly buffered system, remember). However, multiple experiments have been done with various oceanic wildlife in greenhouses at massively elevated CO2 concentrations (up to 1500 ppm), and to my knowledge, none of them have shown any adverse effects.

The great barrier reef has an annual ocean temperature variation of up to 10 degrees C along it&#039;s length. How can raising the temperature two degrees destroy the coral? That claim is ludicrous on it&#039;s face.

Indeed, comparing climate change to annual variation throws a large cloud of doubt over many claims. The Antarctic CANNOT melt due to climate change because CO2 could raise temperatures by 2-4 degrees, but the Antarctic is currently a balmy -20C.

Please, use common sense when dealing with this subject and research every severe claim on both sides, and remember that everyone wants to deceive you.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have rarely seen such bad assumptions.</p>
<p>Higher carbon dioxide will cause ocean acidification. Yes, by a marginal degree (a tenth of a pH at most, we are talking about trace gases in a highly buffered system, remember). However, multiple experiments have been done with various oceanic wildlife in greenhouses at massively elevated CO2 concentrations (up to 1500 ppm), and to my knowledge, none of them have shown any adverse effects.</p>
<p>The great barrier reef has an annual ocean temperature variation of up to 10 degrees C along it&#8217;s length. How can raising the temperature two degrees destroy the coral? That claim is ludicrous on it&#8217;s face.</p>
<p>Indeed, comparing climate change to annual variation throws a large cloud of doubt over many claims. The Antarctic CANNOT melt due to climate change because CO2 could raise temperatures by 2-4 degrees, but the Antarctic is currently a balmy -20C.</p>
<p>Please, use common sense when dealing with this subject and research every severe claim on both sides, and remember that everyone wants to deceive you.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396795</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:19:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396795</guid>
		<description>Re: &lt;em&gt;If it could be shown that northern temperates would really benefit from warming, there might be the basis of a political divide here.&lt;/em&gt;

The biggest benefits accrue in the furthest north regions - where there are currently few people - because of the whole &quot;icy wasteland&quot; business.

With a bit of effort, we could turn those regions into something much more like a steamy tropical jungle - but we should not rely on political advocacy from the people who &lt;em&gt;currently&lt;/em&gt; live there - because there are few of them.  However migration is relatively easy, &lt;em&gt;especially&lt;/em&gt; if there are tens of thousands of years in which to do it.

Re: &lt;em&gt;It&#039;s hard to see anyone benefiting from a several-degree rise compressed into less than a century, however.&lt;/em&gt;

&lt;BLOCKQUOTE&gt;&lt;em&gt;&quot;Global warming is more of an opportunity than it is a challenge for the British tourism industry, if speakers at last week’s the Tourism Society debate are to be believed. According to UK-based The Tourism Society, the debate was opened “with an assault on gloom mongering, suggesting that global warming was good news all the way for British tourism” Tourism Society chairman Roger Heape.&quot;

&quot;The development of the oil industry is one of the most important components in Greenland&#039;s effort to establish a self-bearing economy,&quot; Kim Kielsen, Greenland&#039;s minister of mines and petroleum, has said.  In the shorter term, the country is relying on the rapidly expanding eco-tourism market. Business is already booming in Ilulissat, where hotels are now booked up a year in advance and unemployment is 0 per cent.&quot;

&quot;The United States is predicted to be one of the tourism winners, with international tourism to the U.S. increasing an estimated 13.7 percent over what it would have been if the atmosphere wasn&#039;t warming up.&quot;

&quot;The biggest winners: Canada, which they predict will experience a 220 percent increase in international arrivals by 2100, Russia (174 percent) and Mongolia (122 percent).&quot;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/BLOCKQUOTE&gt;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: <em>If it could be shown that northern temperates would really benefit from warming, there might be the basis of a political divide here.</em></p>
<p>The biggest benefits accrue in the furthest north regions &#8211; where there are currently few people &#8211; because of the whole &#8220;icy wasteland&#8221; business.</p>
<p>With a bit of effort, we could turn those regions into something much more like a steamy tropical jungle &#8211; but we should not rely on political advocacy from the people who <em>currently</em> live there &#8211; because there are few of them.  However migration is relatively easy, <em>especially</em> if there are tens of thousands of years in which to do it.</p>
<p>Re: <em>It&#8217;s hard to see anyone benefiting from a several-degree rise compressed into less than a century, however.</em></p>
<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Global warming is more of an opportunity than it is a challenge for the British tourism industry, if speakers at last week’s the Tourism Society debate are to be believed. According to UK-based The Tourism Society, the debate was opened “with an assault on gloom mongering, suggesting that global warming was good news all the way for British tourism” Tourism Society chairman Roger Heape.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;The development of the oil industry is one of the most important components in Greenland&#8217;s effort to establish a self-bearing economy,&#8221; Kim Kielsen, Greenland&#8217;s minister of mines and petroleum, has said.  In the shorter term, the country is relying on the rapidly expanding eco-tourism market. Business is already booming in Ilulissat, where hotels are now booked up a year in advance and unemployment is 0 per cent.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;The United States is predicted to be one of the tourism winners, with international tourism to the U.S. increasing an estimated 13.7 percent over what it would have been if the atmosphere wasn&#8217;t warming up.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;The biggest winners: Canada, which they predict will experience a 220 percent increase in international arrivals by 2100, Russia (174 percent) and Mongolia (122 percent).&#8221;</em></p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: Mitchell Porter</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/carbon-is-lost.html#comment-396794</link>
		<dc:creator>Mitchell Porter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 10:56:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/09/is-carbon-lost-cause.html#comment-396794</guid>
		<description>Tim, you bring up the interesting possibility that there will be serious pro-warming advocacy from some sector of world opinion. Normally it is assumed that business as usual leads to strong warming, that all the positives lie in minimizing that warming as much as possible, and that all the debate lies in how much mitigation we should be willing to strive for or to pay for. But &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;even the IPCC&lt;/a&gt; (see &quot;summary for policymakers&quot;) includes a few positives in its inventory of impacts, though the negatives definitely predominate.

In terms of the purely latitudinal zones of classical geography, the northern temperate zone has &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/tobler/Projections/sld075.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;the biggest population&lt;/a&gt;, followed by the &quot;torrid zone&quot; between the tropics. If it could be shown that northern temperates would really benefit from warming, there might be the basis of a political divide here. It&#039;s hard to see anyone benefiting from a several-degree rise compressed into less than a century, however.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tim, you bring up the interesting possibility that there will be serious pro-warming advocacy from some sector of world opinion. Normally it is assumed that business as usual leads to strong warming, that all the positives lie in minimizing that warming as much as possible, and that all the debate lies in how much mitigation we should be willing to strive for or to pay for. But <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm" rel="nofollow">even the IPCC</a> (see &#8220;summary for policymakers&#8221;) includes a few positives in its inventory of impacts, though the negatives definitely predominate.</p>
<p>In terms of the purely latitudinal zones of classical geography, the northern temperate zone has <a href="http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/tobler/Projections/sld075.htm" rel="nofollow">the biggest population</a>, followed by the &#8220;torrid zone&#8221; between the tropics. If it could be shown that northern temperates would really benefit from warming, there might be the basis of a political divide here. It&#8217;s hard to see anyone benefiting from a several-degree rise compressed into less than a century, however.</p>
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