Comments on: Baxter’s Flood http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:01:21 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Alan http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-431116 Alan Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:00:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-431116 Robin, I'm struggling to recall a Baxter novel where it all comes right in the end.. Also just happened upon your site ..I was looking for a review of Flood! Robin,

I’m struggling to recall a Baxter novel where it all comes right in the end..

Also just happened upon your site ..I was looking for a review of Flood!

]]> By: Niall http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-430125 Niall Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:50:14 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-430125 Sorry, just googling through looking for something else, but I just have to say that this -- "this ark survive in space until receding waters allow a return to rebuild civilization" -- is such an un-Baxterish thing to happen that I will eat my proverbial hat if it comes to pass. Ark will almost certainly be a generation ship story, and if Earth gets a look-in, it will be about further adaptation to the new environment, which is a perennial Baxter theme. (In fact I wouldn't put it past him to skip far enough into the future that the end of Ark is Flood in reverse -- that the waters do retreat, but in the process destroy the new water-adapted civilization that has developed there ...) Sorry, just googling through looking for something else, but I just have to say that this –

“this ark survive in space until receding waters allow a return to rebuild civilization”

– is such an un-Baxterish thing to happen that I will eat my proverbial hat if it comes to pass. Ark will almost certainly be a generation ship story, and if Earth gets a look-in, it will be about further adaptation to the new environment, which is a perennial Baxter theme. (In fact I wouldn’t put it past him to skip far enough into the future that the end of Ark is Flood in reverse — that the waters do retreat, but in the process destroy the new water-adapted civilization that has developed there …)

]]> By: Z. M. Davis http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398567 Z. M. Davis Sat, 09 Aug 2008 06:29:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398567 <I>"Since a lot of already existing people do suffer, they seem literally infinitely more important to think about."</I> I would think twice before using phrases like "literally infinitely." Choice criteria <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/fake-optimizati.html" rel="nofollow">don't always imply</a> what we think they do. Forget the flood scenario, and simply suppose that having children in today's world is more of a burden than a joy to parents. Would that really make it <I>right</I> to let the population dwindle to zero? Of course I agree that presently nonexistent people don't have rights and can't be harmed, but I value more things than simply the minimization of suffering in the here-and-now. I am willing to suffer a little today, that I might live and flourish tomorrow. I suggest we take a similar attitude towards potential future people as we do towards our potential future selves. “Since a lot of already existing people do suffer, they seem literally infinitely more important to think about.”

I would think twice before using phrases like “literally infinitely.” Choice criteria don’t always imply what we think they do. Forget the flood scenario, and simply suppose that having children in today’s world is more of a burden than a joy to parents. Would that really make it right to let the population dwindle to zero?

Of course I agree that presently nonexistent people don’t have rights and can’t be harmed, but I value more things than simply the minimization of suffering in the here-and-now. I am willing to suffer a little today, that I might live and flourish tomorrow. I suggest we take a similar attitude towards potential future people as we do towards our potential future selves.

]]> By: XOR http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398566 XOR Sat, 09 Aug 2008 03:37:02 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398566 HA, I think everyone should choose cryopreservation. In fact, I'm no great altruist. Equal rights concept just feels good at some "higher values" level, and has some kind of aesthetic appeal to me. Advocating cryopreservation doesn't even start to feel like sacrifice. Really hard moral dilemmas are another story, of course. But I surely do not intend to persist at all costs. Some costs would make life just not worth living. Z. M. Davis, We cannot say these possible future people <i>want</i> to exist. At the very least, they are surely not going to <i>suffer</i> from my failure to bring them into existence. Since a lot of already existing people do suffer, they seem literally infinitely more important to think about. HA,
I think everyone should choose cryopreservation. In fact, I’m no great altruist. Equal rights concept just feels good at some “higher values” level, and has some kind of aesthetic appeal to me. Advocating cryopreservation doesn’t even start to feel like sacrifice. Really hard moral dilemmas are another story, of course. But I surely do not intend to persist at all costs. Some costs would make life just not worth living.

Z. M. Davis,
We cannot say these possible future people want to exist. At the very least, they are surely not going to suffer from my failure to bring them into existence. Since a lot of already existing people do suffer, they seem literally infinitely more important to think about.

]]> By: Z. M. Davis http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398565 Z. M. Davis Sat, 09 Aug 2008 01:40:14 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398565 XOR: <i>"But to save humanity... Why would anyone want that at all?"</I> Well, if you save the species, then there <I>might</I> be a chance of building up to civilization (and posthumanity?) in the long, long, long, long run. We can care about possible future people without putting intrinsic value on humanity <I>qua</i> humanity. XOR: “But to save humanity… Why would anyone want that at all?”

Well, if you save the species, then there might be a chance of building up to civilization (and posthumanity?) in the long, long, long, long run. We can care about possible future people without putting intrinsic value on humanity qua humanity.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398564 Hopefully Anonymous Sat, 09 Aug 2008 01:33:17 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398564 "HA, such a reduction of scope would be unfair if we agree that all living sentient beings have equal rights". We don't agree about that, XOR. If I don't persist, the concept of the rights or non-rights of others is absurd, from my perspective. Although I do encourage other people to put a concept of "HA's right to persistence" over maximizing their own persistence odds. For example, I encourage people to donate their brains to brain banks, whereas I plan to be cryopreserved. Hopefully research we do on their brains will maximize my reanimation odds at a future date, or even better, may result in breakthroughs making it unecessary for me to be cryopreserved. How do you handle the brain bank vs. cryopreserved question for other living sentient beings? What should they put in their will? “HA, such a reduction of scope would be unfair if we agree that all living sentient beings have equal rights”. We don’t agree about that, XOR. If I don’t persist, the concept of the rights or non-rights of others is absurd, from my perspective. Although I do encourage other people to put a concept of “HA’s right to persistence” over maximizing their own persistence odds. For example, I encourage people to donate their brains to brain banks, whereas I plan to be cryopreserved. Hopefully research we do on their brains will maximize my reanimation odds at a future date, or even better, may result in breakthroughs making it unecessary for me to be cryopreserved. How do you handle the brain bank vs. cryopreserved question for other living sentient beings? What should they put in their will?

]]> By: XOR http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398563 XOR Sat, 09 Aug 2008 00:46:58 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398563 HA, such a reduction of scope would be unfair if we agree that all living sentient beings have equal rights (at least initially). It's not about selfishness, it's about caring for real people and their happiness rather than for abstract entities like humanity. HA, such a reduction of scope would be unfair if we agree that all living sentient beings have equal rights (at least initially). It’s not about selfishness, it’s about caring for real people and their happiness rather than for abstract entities like humanity.

]]> By: mike kenny http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398562 mike kenny Sat, 09 Aug 2008 00:41:33 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398562 robin, how would one persuade the powerful to act in the interest of the rest of humanity? it seems to me they don't see it as a worthwhile endeavor. what practical steps would one have been able to make to induce them to act differently? robin, how would one persuade the powerful to act in the interest of the rest of humanity? it seems to me they don’t see it as a worthwhile endeavor. what practical steps would one have been able to make to induce them to act differently?

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398561 Hopefully Anonymous Sat, 09 Aug 2008 00:02:14 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398561 XOR, you could reduce your scope even further and focus on saving you, the people you actually know, or know about and care about, and me (perhaps a Dunbar's number of 150 people XOR, you could reduce your scope even further and focus on saving you, the people you actually know, or know about and care about, and me (perhaps a Dunbar’s number of 150 people

]]> By: XOR http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398560 XOR Fri, 08 Aug 2008 23:26:22 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/08/baxters-flood.html#comment-398560 Why would those people want to save humanity? Some tech could make their remaining lifetimes less occupied with primitive survival needs and therefore more worth living. But to save humanity... Why would anyone want that at all? Well, at least for me, only existing sentient individuals and their qualia are really important and worth caring about. Not genes, humanity, life as a whole, etc. Why would those people want to save humanity? Some tech could make their remaining lifetimes less occupied with primitive survival needs and therefore more worth living. But to save humanity… Why would anyone want that at all?
Well, at least for me, only existing sentient individuals and their qualia are really important and worth caring about. Not genes, humanity, life as a whole, etc.

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