Comments on: Refuge Markets

By: Overcoming Bias : Compare Refuges, Resorts

Overcoming Bias : Compare Refuges, Resorts — Fri, 10 Dec 2010 19:04:16 +0000

[...] talk was on a concrete way to get numerical estimates on extreme risks: refuge futures. I’ve given the subject a bit more thought since I talked on it a few years ago; here is my [...]

By: Overcoming Bias : Beware Future Filters

Overcoming Bias : Beware Future Filters — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 14:11:17 +0000

[...] Back in ‘98 I considered the “doomsday argument” … [but] instead embraced “self-indication analysis”, which blocks the usual doomsday argument. In ‘08 I even suggested self-indication helps explain time-asymmetry. … Alas, Katja Grace had just shown that, given a great filter, self-indication implies doom! This is the great filter … Alas I now drastically increase my estimate of our existential risk; I am, for example, now far more eager to improve our refuges. [...]

By: sceptyk

sceptyk — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:29:12 +0000

If the USA and Russia were about to break diplomatic relations, all the gold and refugee tickets would be confiscated by those in power. The judges who would be supposed to enforce such contracts might change their ethical priorites and so on…

By: Overcoming Bias : Social Collapse Vid

Overcoming Bias : Social Collapse Vid — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:00:41 +0000

[...] A talk I gave a year ago at Oxford on “Catastrophe, Social Collapse and Human Extinction” is now available as an online vid here. Slides here, related paper here. The talk went beyond the paper to introduce the idea of refuge markets, which I blogged here. [...]

By: Si

Si — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 17:19:20 +0000

Robin, point made, I apologise for criticising without first learning enough to know if my criticism has any merit. (While trying to be aware of the bias of learning overly specific lessons).

By: J Thomas

J Thomas — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:54:59 +0000

Maybe have a handy link to a FAQ about it? People who aren’t completely clear on the concept might not understand why prediction markets inevitably summarise all the best information, discard the common disinformation, and weed out the misinformed-but-confident gamblers.

A quick link to the FAQ each time would be even easier than a 2-line comment saying why you won’t explain.

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:42:58 +0000

Si, why should I summarize the concept of and evidence for prediction markets on each and every post that mentions them? I’ve already written lots on that subject elsewhere.

By: Si

Si — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:34:44 +0000

Quite a lot of Robin Hanson’s posts have this kind of feel to them:

1) Find complex problem
2) Wave hands and cast “markets” at problem (see also: “emergence”, “complexity”)
3) Information appears from nowhere, problem is solved.

Where would the accurate information about the probability of catastrophe upon which the ticket buyers are acting come from? If people watch the news and are more afraid of a pandemic of brain tumours caused by cellphone use, that doesn’t seem to tell us anything about the real likelihood of such a pandemic, or ways to avoid it…

By: David J. Balan

David J. Balan — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:51:42 +0000

I don’t get what the resort is for.

By: J Thomas

J Thomas — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 07:09:47 +0000

Robin Hanson, we could just as easily figure out just how to avoid the vampire threat with a few ticket holders that way. We could have a retreat that’s stocked with lots of garlic and stakes and silver bullets, and you have to show your reflection in a mirror before the security guards let you in….

Why would one market predict better than the other?