Comments on: Refuge Markets http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Fri, 19 Mar 2010 15:16:27 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: sceptyk http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-431598 sceptyk Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:29:12 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-431598 If the USA and Russia were about to break diplomatic relations, all the gold and refugee tickets would be confiscated by those in power. The judges who would be supposed to enforce such contracts might change their ethical priorites and so on... If the USA and Russia were about to break diplomatic relations, all the gold and refugee tickets would be confiscated by those in power. The judges who would be supposed to enforce such contracts might change their ethical priorites and so on…

]]> By: Overcoming Bias : Social Collapse Vid http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-430599 Overcoming Bias : Social Collapse Vid Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:00:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-430599 [...] A talk I gave a year ago at Oxford on “Catastrophe, Social Collapse and Human Extinction” is now available as an online vid here.  Slides here, related paper here.  The talk went beyond the paper to introduce the idea of refuge markets, which I blogged here. [...] [...] A talk I gave a year ago at Oxford on “Catastrophe, Social Collapse and Human Extinction” is now available as an online vid here.  Slides here, related paper here.  The talk went beyond the paper to introduce the idea of refuge markets, which I blogged here. [...]

]]> By: Si http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399611 Si Sun, 10 Aug 2008 17:19:20 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399611 Robin, point made, I apologise for criticising without first learning enough to know if my criticism has any merit. (While trying to be aware of the bias of learning overly specific lessons). Robin, point made, I apologise for criticising without first learning enough to know if my criticism has any merit. (While trying to be aware of the bias of learning overly specific lessons).

]]> By: J Thomas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399610 J Thomas Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:54:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399610 Maybe have a handy link to a FAQ about it? People who aren't completely clear on the concept might not understand why prediction markets inevitably summarise all the best information, discard the common disinformation, and weed out the misinformed-but-confident gamblers. A quick link to the FAQ each time would be even easier than a 2-line comment saying why you won't explain. Maybe have a handy link to a FAQ about it? People who aren’t completely clear on the concept might not understand why prediction markets inevitably summarise all the best information, discard the common disinformation, and weed out the misinformed-but-confident gamblers.

A quick link to the FAQ each time would be even easier than a 2-line comment saying why you won’t explain.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399609 Robin Hanson Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:42:58 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399609 Si, why should I summarize the concept of and evidence for prediction markets on each and every post that mentions them? I've already written lots on that subject elsewhere. Si, why should I summarize the concept of and evidence for prediction markets on each and every post that mentions them? I’ve already written lots on that subject elsewhere.

]]> By: Si http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399608 Si Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:34:44 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399608 Quite a lot of Robin Hanson's posts have this kind of feel to them: 1) Find complex problem 2) Wave hands and cast "markets" at problem (see also: "emergence", "complexity") 3) Information appears from nowhere, problem is solved. Where would the accurate information about the probability of catastrophe upon which the ticket buyers are acting come from? If people watch the news and are more afraid of a pandemic of brain tumours caused by cellphone use, that doesn't seem to tell us anything about the real likelihood of such a pandemic, or ways to avoid it... Quite a lot of Robin Hanson’s posts have this kind of feel to them:

1) Find complex problem
2) Wave hands and cast “markets” at problem (see also: “emergence”, “complexity”)
3) Information appears from nowhere, problem is solved.

Where would the accurate information about the probability of catastrophe upon which the ticket buyers are acting come from? If people watch the news and are more afraid of a pandemic of brain tumours caused by cellphone use, that doesn’t seem to tell us anything about the real likelihood of such a pandemic, or ways to avoid it…

]]> By: David J. Balan http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399607 David J. Balan Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:51:42 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399607 I don't get what the resort is for. I don’t get what the resort is for.

]]> By: J Thomas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399606 J Thomas Tue, 29 Jul 2008 07:09:47 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399606 Robin Hanson, we could just as easily figure out just how to avoid the vampire threat with a few ticket holders that way. We could have a retreat that's stocked with lots of garlic and stakes and silver bullets, and you have to show your reflection in a mirror before the security guards let you in.... Why would one market predict better than the other? Robin Hanson, we could just as easily figure out just how to avoid the vampire threat with a few ticket holders that way. We could have a retreat that’s stocked with lots of garlic and stakes and silver bullets, and you have to show your reflection in a mirror before the security guards let you in….

Why would one market predict better than the other?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399605 Robin Hanson Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:29:16 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399605 J, it should be obvious that in equilibrium only a very tiny fraction of humanity would hold tickets at any one time. So <i>of course</i> tickets would not seem a good deal to most people. But we just need a few actual ticket holders to create a market and get market prices to inform us about how to avoid disaster. J, it should be obvious that in equilibrium only a very tiny fraction of humanity would hold tickets at any one time. So of course tickets would not seem a good deal to most people. But we just need a few actual ticket holders to create a market and get market prices to inform us about how to avoid disaster.

]]> By: J Thomas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399604 J Thomas Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:13:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/07/refuge-markets.html#comment-399604 Kaj, this just seemed like an implausible sort of lottery. You invest your money, and if your ticket wins you get to sit in a shelter and get the dubious advantages of living through a giant catastrophe assuming the catastrophe happens in one particular six month period. You put your life on hold for this. If the catastrophe does come then you find out how well the shelter is prepared to survive it. Not something that can be properly tested ahead of time though if you know precisely what kind of catastrophe to expect you can make some reasonable guesses. If you have the funds you can outbid everybody else two or three or four times in a row. Then if you're pretty sure the catastrophe will happen within the next two years, you win. You will be in the shelter when it happens. If you miscalculate you might not have the funds available to win the fifth time, and then after two years of sitting in the shelter waiting for the end, you get thrown out -- maybe a week before the catastrophe actually comes. Something about this behavior just doesn't fit human nature as I observe it. I could more easily see sending your *children* to a shelter for 6 months. One that's stocked with great teachers and the accumulated knowledge of the ages. I could see sending a son there when times look a bit perilous. I'd hesitate to send a daughter if too many other girls have come back pregnant, though. Kaj, this just seemed like an implausible sort of lottery. You invest your money, and if your ticket wins you get to sit in a shelter and get the dubious advantages of living through a giant catastrophe assuming the catastrophe happens in one particular six month period. You put your life on hold for this.

If the catastrophe does come then you find out how well the shelter is prepared to survive it. Not something that can be properly tested ahead of time though if you know precisely what kind of catastrophe to expect you can make some reasonable guesses.

If you have the funds you can outbid everybody else two or three or four times in a row. Then if you’re pretty sure the catastrophe will happen within the next two years, you win. You will be in the shelter when it happens. If you miscalculate you might not have the funds available to win the fifth time, and then after two years of sitting in the shelter waiting for the end, you get thrown out — maybe a week before the catastrophe actually comes.

Something about this behavior just doesn’t fit human nature as I observe it. I could more easily see sending your *children* to a shelter for 6 months. One that’s stocked with great teachers and the accumulated knowledge of the ages. I could see sending a son there when times look a bit perilous. I’d hesitate to send a daughter if too many other girls have come back pregnant, though.

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