Comments on: Average Your Guesses

By: Phillip Huggan

Phillip Huggan — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 20:38:03 +0000

This effect is because you tend to guess in regular interval jumps. Like fives or tens. So your first guess is closest, and the next is 10% away in the right direction. Later guesses might tap unconscious brain work. 20% and 25% for me.

By: Charles Twardy

Charles Twardy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:46:22 +0000

Just a note: the paper does not claim that the average is always better than either guess! Only that you should expect it to be so. Of note, second guesses were worse than first guesses (overall, not always), but it was still better to average (overall, not always).

By: the evangelical outpost

the evangelical outpost — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:11:42 +0000

Thirty Three Things (v. 68)

1. The Market and Human Nature — from a 2005 QA with the conservative scholar Roger Scruton (via Rod Dreher): MG: What deleterious consequences result from the “free market ideology” you mention? Are there particular economic arrangements that co…

By: Patrik Hirvinen

Patrik Hirvinen — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 01:39:07 +0000

Daniel Wolfe, Gwern: The Delphi method is different from but related to Delphi pools, which (IIRC) were initially just averages of guesses by a set of people but very soon incorporated betting on outcomes, essentially becoming prediction markets ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market ), a topic Robin Hanson has written a lot about. See http://hanson.gmu.edu/ and search OB for those.

By: Phil Goetz

Phil Goetz — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 18:24:17 +0000

I guessed 25%, but I had an unfair advantage – I designed NASA’s airspace simulator, and had a list of all the international airports in the world. I believe I had just under 20,000 US airports in my simulation. That would include all airports for which ETMS data is filed, but would exclude a large number of private & small-plane airports.

And when I said I guessed 25%, I was really guessing 1/4.

By: Apep

Apep — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 18:17:01 +0000

Yes, I thought my first guess was too high and I guessed higher the second time because that was what came to mind first. The mental sequence went more or less like this: “25%. Hmmm. That seems a little high. 35%. So maybe 15% is a better guess.”

By: Pablo Stafforini

Pablo Stafforini — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 16:31:15 +0000

Just like Hal Finney, I guessed 25% the first time and 15% the second time. The phenomenology of second-guessing is quite interesting. Updating your original guess in one direction feels right at one moment, and the next moment what feels right is an update in the opposite direction. I moved back and forth between 15% and 35%, and only settled for the former figure because I was impatient to see the right response.

By: anonymous

anonymous — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 16:28:11 +0000

I guessed 10% and 50% – the average is 30%!

By: Gwern

Gwern — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:01:08 +0000

Daniel Wolfe: That’s an interesting fictional analogue. How closely related to the Delphi method ( https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Delphi_method ) are Brunner’s Delphi pools?

By: Nick Tarleton

Nick Tarleton — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 05:23:02 +0000

"Airports: This entry gives the total number of airports or airfields recognizable from the air. The runway(s) may be paved (concrete or asphalt surfaces) or unpaved (grass, earth, sand, or gravel surfaces) but may include closed or abandoned installations. Airports or airfields that are no longer recognizable (overgrown, no facilities, etc.) are not included. Note that not all airports have accommodations for refueling, maintenance, or air traffic control." - Notes and Definitions