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	<title>Comments on: Sleepy Fools</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Michael Sullivan</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404196</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 May 2008 17:38:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404196</guid>
		<description>&quot;We just work on the assumption that it must be the other guy.&quot;

It seems more productive to me to work under the assumption that it is *me* in the absence of specific *directed* evidence that convinces me otherwise.

Now often I&#039;ll be assuming it&#039;s the other guy, but that&#039;s because I entered the conversation with significant, already well examined priors about who the fool is likely to be.  Creationists, ludwig plutonium, etc.   I have lots of evidence that these folks are fools.

In an argument of this kind with some mainstream scientist or anyone with an existing solid non-crackpot reputation and minimal expertise in whatever is under discussion, my priors should be closer to 50-50 on who the fool will be in some disagreement.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;We just work on the assumption that it must be the other guy.&#8221;</p>
<p>It seems more productive to me to work under the assumption that it is *me* in the absence of specific *directed* evidence that convinces me otherwise.</p>
<p>Now often I&#8217;ll be assuming it&#8217;s the other guy, but that&#8217;s because I entered the conversation with significant, already well examined priors about who the fool is likely to be.  Creationists, ludwig plutonium, etc.   I have lots of evidence that these folks are fools.</p>
<p>In an argument of this kind with some mainstream scientist or anyone with an existing solid non-crackpot reputation and minimal expertise in whatever is under discussion, my priors should be closer to 50-50 on who the fool will be in some disagreement.</p>
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		<title>By: Daniel Janzon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404195</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel Janzon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 18:44:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404195</guid>
		<description>@ Poke,

Lucid dreaming is proved by Stephen LaBerge by letting lucid dreamers signal pre-decided signs with their eyes. Looking to the left or right in the dream can be seen on the eyelid. Skeptics&#039; dictionary&#039;s article on lucid dreaming criticizes LaBerge, but not on his proof of the existence of lucid dreaming (http://www.skepdic.com/lucdream.html).

@ All,

I think, in general, people with foolish beliefs have a greater need to see their beliefs among others. The same thing is true for a new belief. So if I feel that I have been pushing people to believe something for a long time, and it doesn&#039;t seem to end, I should review the basis for that belief.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Poke,</p>
<p>Lucid dreaming is proved by Stephen LaBerge by letting lucid dreamers signal pre-decided signs with their eyes. Looking to the left or right in the dream can be seen on the eyelid. Skeptics&#8217; dictionary&#8217;s article on lucid dreaming criticizes LaBerge, but not on his proof of the existence of lucid dreaming (<a href="http://www.skepdic.com/lucdream.html)" rel="nofollow">http://www.skepdic.com/lucdream.html)</a>.</p>
<p>@ All,</p>
<p>I think, in general, people with foolish beliefs have a greater need to see their beliefs among others. The same thing is true for a new belief. So if I feel that I have been pushing people to believe something for a long time, and it doesn&#8217;t seem to end, I should review the basis for that belief.</p>
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		<title>By: ir</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404194</link>
		<dc:creator>ir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 18:52:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404194</guid>
		<description>fool-
2. A person deficient in intellect; one who acts absurdly, or pursues a course contrary to the dictates of wisdom; one without judgment; a simpleton; a dolt.

why try to prove something to a fool using logic? and when has logic ever worked to convince anyone of anything?

just a thought.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>fool-<br />
2. A person deficient in intellect; one who acts absurdly, or pursues a course contrary to the dictates of wisdom; one without judgment; a simpleton; a dolt.</p>
<p>why try to prove something to a fool using logic? and when has logic ever worked to convince anyone of anything?</p>
<p>just a thought.</p>
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		<title>By: jls</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404193</link>
		<dc:creator>jls</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 15:58:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404193</guid>
		<description>&quot;This could also mean your refutation so completely missed the point that only a fool would think it persuasive on properly understanding the original argument.&quot; Nick Tarleton

Good point. Still, that doesn&#039;t mean that what I said isn&#039;t a valid fool sign, it just means that it isn&#039;t a fool-proof fool sign. In that case I would be the fool, and I think it is unreasonable to expect that fools interpret fool signs correctly. Of course, it would be better if we had a list of fool-proof fool signs, which even fools could deal with. Indeed, that could be great, since fools could use the list to detect and get rid of their own foolishness.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;This could also mean your refutation so completely missed the point that only a fool would think it persuasive on properly understanding the original argument.&#8221; Nick Tarleton</p>
<p>Good point. Still, that doesn&#8217;t mean that what I said isn&#8217;t a valid fool sign, it just means that it isn&#8217;t a fool-proof fool sign. In that case I would be the fool, and I think it is unreasonable to expect that fools interpret fool signs correctly. Of course, it would be better if we had a list of fool-proof fool signs, which even fools could deal with. Indeed, that could be great, since fools could use the list to detect and get rid of their own foolishness.</p>
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		<title>By: Zubon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404192</link>
		<dc:creator>Zubon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 14:51:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404192</guid>
		<description>Frelkins: in this context, &quot;the other guy&quot; is meant to mean &quot;not you.&quot;  The implicit sign of a fool is that he disagrees with you.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Frelkins: in this context, &#8220;the other guy&#8221; is meant to mean &#8220;not you.&#8221;  The implicit sign of a fool is that he disagrees with you.</p>
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		<title>By: Caledonian</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404191</link>
		<dc:creator>Caledonian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 13:30:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404191</guid>
		<description>Alas, if only humanity could be split into two convenient groups:  fools and the wise.  The reality is that they&#039;re all fools most of the time, and a few are occasionally wise on narrow subjects for short periods.

So if you want a method of identifying a fool, there&#039;s one surefire way that always works.  It&#039;s called &#039;a mirror&#039;!  Just look into it and you&#039;re guaranteed to see a gen-u-ine, bona fide fool looking back.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alas, if only humanity could be split into two convenient groups:  fools and the wise.  The reality is that they&#8217;re all fools most of the time, and a few are occasionally wise on narrow subjects for short periods.</p>
<p>So if you want a method of identifying a fool, there&#8217;s one surefire way that always works.  It&#8217;s called &#8216;a mirror&#8217;!  Just look into it and you&#8217;re guaranteed to see a gen-u-ine, bona fide fool looking back.</p>
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		<title>By: frelkins</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404190</link>
		<dc:creator>frelkins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 12:45:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404190</guid>
		<description>@zubon

Let me note that we need not assume the fool is the other guy. Conversations between two fools can be enlightening &amp; amusing to the witnessing third party. Shakespeare is filled with examples of this.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@zubon</p>
<p>Let me note that we need not assume the fool is the other guy. Conversations between two fools can be enlightening &#038; amusing to the witnessing third party. Shakespeare is filled with examples of this.</p>
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		<title>By: Zubon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404189</link>
		<dc:creator>Zubon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 12:14:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404189</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;This could also mean your refutation so completely missed the point that only a fool would think it persuasive on properly understanding the original argument.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
So it seems to be a sign that someone involved in the discussion is a fool.  We just work on the assumption that it must be the other guy.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This could also mean your refutation so completely missed the point that only a fool would think it persuasive on properly understanding the original argument.</p></blockquote>
<p>So it seems to be a sign that someone involved in the discussion is a fool.  We just work on the assumption that it must be the other guy.</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Tarleton</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404188</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Tarleton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 12:07:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404188</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;When your opponent makes an argument and you refute it, a fool, instead of refuting the refutation, or coming up with a new argument, rephrases the original argument, as if that could make it more solid.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This could also mean your refutation so completely missed the point that only a fool would think it persuasive on properly understanding the original argument.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>When your opponent makes an argument and you refute it, a fool, instead of refuting the refutation, or coming up with a new argument, rephrases the original argument, as if that could make it more solid.</p></blockquote>
<p>This could also mean your refutation so completely missed the point that only a fool would think it persuasive on properly understanding the original argument.</p>
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		<title>By: frelkins</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404187</link>
		<dc:creator>frelkins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 10:33:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/sleepy-fools.html#comment-404187</guid>
		<description>@jls

Exactly. If a fool says to the moon-landing denier, I know space travel is real because I watched it on Battlestar Galactica, that doesn&#039;t make space travel wrong. This is why Robin&#039;s statement about &quot;wanting&quot; to know the truth is so profound. It is a driving desire that will force you to travel everywhere and talk to all, as, again, did Socrates. Plato&#039;s dialogues are filled with fools and their signs.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@jls</p>
<p>Exactly. If a fool says to the moon-landing denier, I know space travel is real because I watched it on Battlestar Galactica, that doesn&#8217;t make space travel wrong. This is why Robin&#8217;s statement about &#8220;wanting&#8221; to know the truth is so profound. It is a driving desire that will force you to travel everywhere and talk to all, as, again, did Socrates. Plato&#8217;s dialogues are filled with fools and their signs.</p>
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