Comments on: Beware Transfusions http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:20:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Dihymo http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404749 Dihymo Sun, 01 Jun 2008 05:39:06 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404749 I have to disagree with the idea that a special party needs to hear this and that the other special party cannot use it correctly. #1 our curiosity, impartiality, and morality is being daily lobotomized #2 heuristics such as experts must hear and plebes must fear create #1 which leads to #3 #3 a systemic as well as epidemic inability to act even when we are convinced that action must take place So I would say just QM is reality and CM is a hallucination, the social strata and hierarchy of responsibility is also a hallucination because there has been no upkeep. Curiosity and self examination are increasing discouraged favoring their licentious sisters vanity and relief of boredom. Let's just say it's amplitude distribution is as wide as a the wavelength of a photon of 1 hertz. It may have been true at one point but since no one bothered to examine and maintain it became spread out. I would say though that the title of the thread does much more probable harm than the content. We could say the same of the Beware Supplements thread. Both threads have latent and newly emerging biases, which I won't get into. I have to disagree with the idea that a special party needs to hear this and that the other special party cannot use it correctly.

#1 our curiosity, impartiality, and morality is being daily lobotomized
#2 heuristics such as experts must hear and plebes must fear create #1 which leads to #3
#3 a systemic as well as epidemic inability to act even when we are convinced that action must take place

So I would say just QM is reality and CM is a hallucination, the social strata and hierarchy of responsibility is also a hallucination because there has been no upkeep. Curiosity and self examination are increasing discouraged favoring their licentious sisters vanity and relief of boredom.

Let’s just say it’s amplitude distribution is as wide as a the wavelength of a photon of 1 hertz. It may have been true at one point but since no one bothered to examine and maintain it became spread out.

I would say though that the title of the thread does much more probable harm than the content. We could say the same of the Beware Supplements thread. Both threads have latent and newly emerging biases, which I won’t get into.

]]> By: Bob http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404748 Bob Tue, 27 May 2008 13:42:12 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404748 Define crazy? Define crazy?

]]> By: Eric Crampton http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404747 Eric Crampton Thu, 22 May 2008 22:51:47 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404747 In prepping for the birth of our son, I asked our obstetrician whether we ought be doing autologous donations early to be ready in case of caesarean, as Ira promised to be a big boy. He told us that there would be no point as he won't give transfusions unless things were dire and then there'd be no chance that we'd have stored up enough blood in advance to make a difference. He noted the Canadian study on the risks of transfusion. Chalk one up for the NZ medical system, where my private health insurance does not cover pregnancy but where paying $2,000 in advance gets me a very good obstetrician and no extra charge for the eventual caesarean. In prepping for the birth of our son, I asked our obstetrician whether we ought be doing autologous donations early to be ready in case of caesarean, as Ira promised to be a big boy. He told us that there would be no point as he won’t give transfusions unless things were dire and then there’d be no chance that we’d have stored up enough blood in advance to make a difference. He noted the Canadian study on the risks of transfusion.

Chalk one up for the NZ medical system, where my private health insurance does not cover pregnancy but where paying $2,000 in advance gets me a very good obstetrician and no extra charge for the eventual caesarean.

]]> By: Zooko http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404746 Zooko Mon, 05 May 2008 18:15:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404746 I'm beginning to think (in large part due to "Good Calories, Bad Calories" by Gary Taubes, which is (so far) a tour de force historical analysis of how large-scale, mainstream, government-supported science can go completely wrong) that for much of health science, "Whatever the mainstream scientists thought between 1850 and 1950." is at least as good a predictor as "Whatever the mainstream scientists think today.". There seems to be a great deal of "scientific overreaching" that went on during the 20th which is now the established consensus tradition and has to be *disproven* before it will go away. I think studies such as the one cited in this article, and books such as Taubes, are the beginnings of this large scale process of re-examining and in many cases disproving the so-called science that was developed during the 20th. I’m beginning to think (in large part due to “Good Calories, Bad Calories” by Gary Taubes, which is (so far) a tour de force historical analysis of how large-scale, mainstream, government-supported science can go completely wrong) that for much of health science, “Whatever the mainstream scientists thought between 1850 and 1950.” is at least as good a predictor as “Whatever the mainstream scientists think today.”. There seems to be a great deal of “scientific overreaching” that went on during the 20th which is now the established consensus tradition and has to be *disproven* before it will go away. I think studies such as the one cited in this article, and books such as Taubes, are the beginnings of this large scale process of re-examining and in many cases disproving the so-called science that was developed during the 20th.

]]> By: eddie http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404745 eddie Sun, 04 May 2008 11:45:58 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404745 If I'm understanding this whole Bayes thing, then in fact the JWs aren't as crazy as we thought. This study surely raises our belief that the infallible holy book is, in fact, infallible. Not by much, perhaps... but it still means that the JWs are <i>very slightly</i> less crazy than our priors indicated. If I’m understanding this whole Bayes thing, then in fact the JWs aren’t as crazy as we thought. This study surely raises our belief that the infallible holy book is, in fact, infallible. Not by much, perhaps… but it still means that the JWs are very slightly less crazy than our priors indicated.

]]> By: Constant http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404744 Constant Sun, 04 May 2008 01:45:25 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404744 I wonder what percentage of donated blood goes to harming the recipients. Do the many conscientious people who <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_donation" rel="nofollow">donate their own blood</a> help others on balance? I wonder what percentage of donated blood goes to harming the recipients. Do the many conscientious people who donate their own blood help others on balance?

]]> By: Caledonian http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404743 Caledonian Sun, 04 May 2008 01:42:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404743 Certainly we have no grounds for regarding the Jehovah's Witnesses as more credible than before. It's just that the credibility of the people who oppose their claims has been reduced. Certainly we have no grounds for regarding the Jehovah’s Witnesses as more credible than before. It’s just that the credibility of the people who oppose their claims has been reduced.

]]> By: Ping http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404742 Ping Sun, 04 May 2008 01:28:46 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404742 The Jehovah's Witnesses remain exactly as crazy as we thought they were before knowing about this study. This study has no bearing on the fact that their opposition to blood transfusions is based on an <em>infallible holy book</em>, not on experimental observation. The Jehovah’s Witnesses remain exactly as crazy as we thought they were before knowing about this study. This study has no bearing on the fact that their opposition to blood transfusions is based on an infallible holy book, not on experimental observation.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404741 Hopefully Anonymous Sun, 04 May 2008 00:02:52 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404741 A plan for a systematic review of medical and safety practices would be a good idea, in regular intervals. Kind of like how we do a census every 10 years. Actually a periodic, systematic review for all domains of knowledge and "common sense" might be a good idea. A plan for a systematic review of medical and safety practices would be a good idea, in regular intervals. Kind of like how we do a census every 10 years. Actually a periodic, systematic review for all domains of knowledge and “common sense” might be a good idea.

]]> By: Matthew C. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/beware-blood-tr.html#comment-404740 Matthew C. Sat, 03 May 2008 22:35:32 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/05/beware-transfusions.html#comment-404740 Maybe the Jehovah's Witnesses aren't as crazy as we all thought. . . :-) Maybe the Jehovah’s Witnesses aren’t as crazy as we all thought. . . :-)

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