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	<title>Comments on: Naming Beliefs</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Phil Goetz</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405624</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil Goetz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Apr 2008 01:01:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405624</guid>
		<description>You claim there&#039;s literature showing that people take other people&#039;s opinion into account too much.  Robin claims there&#039;s literature showing that people take other people&#039;s opinion into account too little.  How can you resolve these views?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You claim there&#8217;s literature showing that people take other people&#8217;s opinion into account too much.  Robin claims there&#8217;s literature showing that people take other people&#8217;s opinion into account too little.  How can you resolve these views?</p>
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		<title>By: Hal Finney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405623</link>
		<dc:creator>Hal Finney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:58:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405623</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s an interesting point, Joseph. Of course it is a standard principle that the merits of an argument are independent of the character of the arguer. But your comment suggests something else, that in some cases hypocrisy may be justified and appropriate.

Hypocrisy is one of the most reviled of human faults in today&#039;s world; it sometimes seems that even mass murderers receive less condemnation than hypocrites. But in a way the hypocrite can be seen as doing us all a favor, by advocating an idea or position which might otherwise not see much support. And the hypocrite can perform this service while still following the majority in ignoring the position in practice.

Many of us have expressed the concern that if we had greater conformity, while only advocating sincerely held beliefs, we would see a diminished social discourse and less diversity in our intellectual culture. Hypocrisy may be a solution to this quandary. I have long felt that our society has made a fetish of intolerance for hypocrisy and has elevated its importance excessively. This is another argument for being more forgiving of hypocrites and recognizing the positive contribution they make to society.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s an interesting point, Joseph. Of course it is a standard principle that the merits of an argument are independent of the character of the arguer. But your comment suggests something else, that in some cases hypocrisy may be justified and appropriate.</p>
<p>Hypocrisy is one of the most reviled of human faults in today&#8217;s world; it sometimes seems that even mass murderers receive less condemnation than hypocrites. But in a way the hypocrite can be seen as doing us all a favor, by advocating an idea or position which might otherwise not see much support. And the hypocrite can perform this service while still following the majority in ignoring the position in practice.</p>
<p>Many of us have expressed the concern that if we had greater conformity, while only advocating sincerely held beliefs, we would see a diminished social discourse and less diversity in our intellectual culture. Hypocrisy may be a solution to this quandary. I have long felt that our society has made a fetish of intolerance for hypocrisy and has elevated its importance excessively. This is another argument for being more forgiving of hypocrites and recognizing the positive contribution they make to society.</p>
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		<title>By: Joseph Hertzlinger</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405622</link>
		<dc:creator>Joseph Hertzlinger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Apr 2008 04:07:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405622</guid>
		<description>If it makes sense to say what your personal analysis says while simultaneously adjusting your private opinions (which might be revealed in your actions) closer to the opinions of the majority then ... it makes sense to give verbal support for an unpopular policy (if that&#039;s what your reasoning says) while dodging any actual involvement. There are lots of examples all across the political spectrum.

In other words, the existence of hypocrisy is not necessarily a reason to dismiss the words of the hypocrites out of hand.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If it makes sense to say what your personal analysis says while simultaneously adjusting your private opinions (which might be revealed in your actions) closer to the opinions of the majority then &#8230; it makes sense to give verbal support for an unpopular policy (if that&#8217;s what your reasoning says) while dodging any actual involvement. There are lots of examples all across the political spectrum.</p>
<p>In other words, the existence of hypocrisy is not necessarily a reason to dismiss the words of the hypocrites out of hand.</p>
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		<title>By: Hal Finney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405621</link>
		<dc:creator>Hal Finney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Apr 2008 03:39:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405621</guid>
		<description>Maybe it would be reasonable to consider one set of terms for the cognoscenti, such as those of us posting here, who are familiar with the concept; and another phrasing (that would avoid jargon) for use among the general public. Among the latter group, you could say something like, &quot;Ignoring the general opinion, my personal observations would support X.&quot; You might even get away with &quot;My personal opinion would be X&quot;, or &quot;Based on my personal knowledge, X&quot;.

It would probably make sense only to use this kind of circumlocution in certain situations. One case would be where the listener would care about whether you are just echoing other views or making a concerted effort to offer your own independent input, such as in group estimation situations. Occasionally panelists are all asked to make estimates of when or whether something will happen, and while we might assume or at least hope that they will offer independent information, there might nevertheless be a degree of influence, especially if they are not aware of this distinction. If someone makes it clear that they are offering one or the other flavor of estimate then that helps the audience (and in fact I have occasionally seen this happen).

Another case would be if you want to proselytize for bias-awareness. Saying you&#039;d believe X if not for the fact that everyone else believes Y, so you&#039;re going along with the crowd, will no doubt trigger questions, possibly hostile (as we have seen expressed here occasionally). This can open up an opportunity to talk about some of the issues we discuss here.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe it would be reasonable to consider one set of terms for the cognoscenti, such as those of us posting here, who are familiar with the concept; and another phrasing (that would avoid jargon) for use among the general public. Among the latter group, you could say something like, &#8220;Ignoring the general opinion, my personal observations would support X.&#8221; You might even get away with &#8220;My personal opinion would be X&#8221;, or &#8220;Based on my personal knowledge, X&#8221;.</p>
<p>It would probably make sense only to use this kind of circumlocution in certain situations. One case would be where the listener would care about whether you are just echoing other views or making a concerted effort to offer your own independent input, such as in group estimation situations. Occasionally panelists are all asked to make estimates of when or whether something will happen, and while we might assume or at least hope that they will offer independent information, there might nevertheless be a degree of influence, especially if they are not aware of this distinction. If someone makes it clear that they are offering one or the other flavor of estimate then that helps the audience (and in fact I have occasionally seen this happen).</p>
<p>Another case would be if you want to proselytize for bias-awareness. Saying you&#8217;d believe X if not for the fact that everyone else believes Y, so you&#8217;re going along with the crowd, will no doubt trigger questions, possibly hostile (as we have seen expressed here occasionally). This can open up an opportunity to talk about some of the issues we discuss here.</p>
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		<title>By: Caledonian</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405620</link>
		<dc:creator>Caledonian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 23:54:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405620</guid>
		<description>Why don&#039;t you offer suggestions for guidelines as to when others can serve as correctives and when they can&#039;t?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why don&#8217;t you offer suggestions for guidelines as to when others can serve as correctives and when they can&#8217;t?</p>
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		<title>By: celeriac</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405619</link>
		<dc:creator>celeriac</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 21:24:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405619</guid>
		<description>If you and another person are deriving your beliefs from shared experience (witnessing the same events, reading the same literature, being educated on the same formalisms), then you will each use that shared information to come up with your beliefs. Yet it seems that when combining beliefs you should only count shared information once. So &quot;independent&quot;  sounds more accurate than &quot;initial&quot; or &quot;uncorrected.&quot;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you and another person are deriving your beliefs from shared experience (witnessing the same events, reading the same literature, being educated on the same formalisms), then you will each use that shared information to come up with your beliefs. Yet it seems that when combining beliefs you should only count shared information once. So &#8220;independent&#8221;  sounds more accurate than &#8220;initial&#8221; or &#8220;uncorrected.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405618</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 21:14:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405618</guid>
		<description>&quot;Uncorrected impression&quot; is awkward, but sounds appropriately humble - considering that the main reason people don&#039;t offer their uncorrected impressions is the fear of dissent.  &quot;Uncorrected impression&quot; says that you accept the notion of group correction, but this is the independent component of your information.

Actually, &quot;Independent component&quot; also has merit, but I still think &quot;uncorrected impression&quot; might work better socially.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Uncorrected impression&#8221; is awkward, but sounds appropriately humble &#8211; considering that the main reason people don&#8217;t offer their uncorrected impressions is the fear of dissent.  &#8220;Uncorrected impression&#8221; says that you accept the notion of group correction, but this is the independent component of your information.</p>
<p>Actually, &#8220;Independent component&#8221; also has merit, but I still think &#8220;uncorrected impression&#8221; might work better socially.</p>
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		<title>By: Constant</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405617</link>
		<dc:creator>Constant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 19:16:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405617</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Yes, if only humans and their languages had evolved...&lt;/i&gt;

Let&#039;s apply your insight here to crime. Since crime comes in different degrees, let&#039;s just come up with one word for it and then use the modifiers which English has &quot;evolved&quot; to talk about degrees. So, crime is now all &quot;rape and murder&quot;. All criminals are rapists and murderers, only some are &quot;slightly&quot; rapists and murderers, and others are &quot;very much&quot; rapists and murderers.

Doesn&#039;t work very well. So, sometimes, ignoring the details until after you come up with a name and relying on the &quot;evolved&quot; degree words to do the heavy lifting doesn&#039;t work.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Yes, if only humans and their languages had evolved&#8230;</i></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s apply your insight here to crime. Since crime comes in different degrees, let&#8217;s just come up with one word for it and then use the modifiers which English has &#8220;evolved&#8221; to talk about degrees. So, crime is now all &#8220;rape and murder&#8221;. All criminals are rapists and murderers, only some are &#8220;slightly&#8221; rapists and murderers, and others are &#8220;very much&#8221; rapists and murderers.</p>
<p>Doesn&#8217;t work very well. So, sometimes, ignoring the details until after you come up with a name and relying on the &#8220;evolved&#8221; degree words to do the heavy lifting doesn&#8217;t work.</p>
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		<title>By: Anna Salamon</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405616</link>
		<dc:creator>Anna Salamon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 16:28:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405616</guid>
		<description>I second &quot;independent impression&quot;.  I also like g&#039;s proposal of &quot;raw impressions&quot; or &quot;uncorrected impressions&quot; for a wider range of of purposes, e.g.

&quot;Before correcting for for [what other people think / overconfidence bias / some other factor], my impression is ___&quot;.

As Constant points out, there are multiple kinds of impressions that might usefully be tracked and reported.  In addition to finding vocabulary, we should discuss what kinds of impressions are worth naming.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I second &#8220;independent impression&#8221;.  I also like g&#8217;s proposal of &#8220;raw impressions&#8221; or &#8220;uncorrected impressions&#8221; for a wider range of of purposes, e.g.</p>
<p>&#8220;Before correcting for for [what other people think / overconfidence bias / some other factor], my impression is ___&#8221;.</p>
<p>As Constant points out, there are multiple kinds of impressions that might usefully be tracked and reported.  In addition to finding vocabulary, we should discuss what kinds of impressions are worth naming.</p>
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		<title>By: Q the Enchanter</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405615</link>
		<dc:creator>Q the Enchanter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html#comment-405615</guid>
		<description>Socially mediated v. socially un/nonmediated beliefs.
Insulated (or aloof or immure) belief v. conforming belief.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Socially mediated v. socially un/nonmediated beliefs.<br />
Insulated (or aloof or immure) belief v. conforming belief.</p>
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