Comments on: Biases and Investing http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Paul http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406891 Paul Fri, 21 Mar 2008 12:03:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406891 yes, yes, I think you guys have stumbled upon the new secret to beating the market! We are hard wired to behave this way. And for the lucky few who can rise above our primitive constraints untold riches await... signed your friends on Wall Street yes, yes, I think you guys have stumbled upon the new secret to beating the market! We are hard wired to behave this way. And for the lucky few who can rise above our primitive constraints untold riches await…

signed

your friends on Wall Street

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406890 Peter McCluskey Wed, 19 Mar 2008 15:31:58 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406890 I would be surprised if the Netflix data contain enough information to identify all relevant human biases. Unlike chromodynamics, the Netflix data are selected for ease of data collection rather than for explanatory power. I would be surprised if the Netflix data contain enough information to identify all relevant human biases. Unlike chromodynamics, the Netflix data are selected for ease of data collection rather than for explanatory power.

]]> By: Roland http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406889 Roland Wed, 19 Mar 2008 04:46:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406889 I want to clarify my above comment in light of Eliezer's article about reductionism: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/reductionism.html The Netflix data which consists of client's movie choices contains implicitly all the biases that influence those choices(that's my assumption). So you don't need to program in the biases explicitly. In the same way that Eliezer's chromodynamic 747 model would contain all facts about airflow implicitly. So if we have a perfect analyser of the data we should be able to make optimal predictions without the need to explicitly factor in biases. Does that make sense? I want to clarify my above comment in light of Eliezer’s article about reductionism:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/reductionism.html

The Netflix data which consists of client’s movie choices contains implicitly all the biases that influence those choices(that’s my assumption).

So you don’t need to program in the biases explicitly. In the same way that Eliezer’s chromodynamic 747 model would contain all facts about airflow implicitly.

So if we have a perfect analyser of the data we should be able to make optimal predictions without the need to explicitly factor in biases.

Does that make sense?

]]> By: Roland http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406888 Roland Wed, 19 Mar 2008 04:37:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406888 Regarding the Netflix prize: I was wondering, if a perfect bayesian mind analysed the data would it discover all the human biases that are influencing/contributing to it? If we program in these biases in addition to analysing the data statistically aren't we counting the same thing twice? Regarding the Netflix prize:

I was wondering, if a perfect bayesian mind analysed the data would it discover all the human biases that are influencing/contributing to it? If we program in these biases in addition to analysing the data statistically aren’t we counting the same thing twice?

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406887 Peter McCluskey Tue, 18 Mar 2008 22:22:27 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406887 I plan to keep it infrequently mentioned, as I don't have much of an idea how increased awareness of it would affect my ability to profit from it. I plan to keep it infrequently mentioned, as I don’t have much of an idea how increased awareness of it would affect my ability to profit from it.

]]> By: Felix http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406886 Felix Tue, 18 Mar 2008 21:27:11 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406886 Yes, please, what is that "one infrequently mentioned result"? :) Yes, please, what is that “one infrequently mentioned result”? :)

]]> By: Chris Gomis http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406885 Chris Gomis Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:00:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406885 Prospect Theory? Which suggests that investors would take riskier actions as a market trends downward. After all there hasn't been a run on a bank to invest into it. Or in evolutionary terms, one will run from a lion at slightest provocation, but will take their time hunting/gathering. Prospect Theory? Which suggests that investors would take riskier actions as a market trends downward. After all there hasn’t been a run on a bank to invest into it. Or in evolutionary terms, one will run from a lion at slightest provocation, but will take their time hunting/gathering.

]]> By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/biases-and-inve.html#comment-406884 Phil Goetz Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:21:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/03/biases-and-investing.html#comment-406884 What's the one infrequently-mentioned result? What’s the one infrequently-mentioned result?

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