Comments on: What is Worth Study? http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 02:20:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Lee http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-443610 Lee Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:02:39 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-443610 SETI is beyond ridiculous. As if aliens advanced enough for interstellar travel would use radio transmissions. It would be like primitive civilisations looking for smoke signals from the next valley from other primitive civilisations. They wouldn't even hear radio. Give up, wait for technology to advance beyond the primitive, which is what it is now. Some sort of quantum system is far more likely. Radio? Give me a break. SETI is beyond ridiculous. As if aliens advanced enough for interstellar travel would use radio transmissions.

It would be like primitive civilisations looking for smoke signals from the next valley from other primitive civilisations. They wouldn’t even hear radio.

Give up, wait for technology to advance beyond the primitive, which is what it is now. Some sort of quantum system is far more likely. Radio? Give me a break.

]]> By: Douglas Knight http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408288 Douglas Knight Thu, 14 Feb 2008 01:29:38 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408288 If no one is actually intent on doing the proposed survey, brainstorming examples of non-studied subjects doesn't seem so interesting to me, but examples of <em>reasons</em> that various subjects aren't studied seems like a good exercise. Complementary to the example of UFOs as popular but not studied, is, I believe, alternative medicine, forced on NIH by congress. (Incidentally, while I think sex is a good example of something not studied for reasons of "silliness," I don't think that's a necessary part of the explanation of SETI. There, I think, the issue is that the public is not so interested in aliens at other stars.) If no one is actually intent on doing the proposed survey, brainstorming examples of non-studied subjects doesn’t seem so interesting to me, but examples of reasons that various subjects aren’t studied seems like a good exercise.

Complementary to the example of UFOs as popular but not studied, is, I believe, alternative medicine, forced on NIH by congress.

(Incidentally, while I think sex is a good example of something not studied for reasons of “silliness,” I don’t think that’s a necessary part of the explanation of SETI. There, I think, the issue is that the public is not so interested in aliens at other stars.)

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408287 michael vassar Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:43:06 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408287 Rolf Nelson's point about lazy believers seems to give the lie to this part of an old post. I would drop whatever else I was doing, but presumably lazy believers, which may include the large majority of people, would not. Honestly, even though I would drop what I was doing I would probably put it behind me in a few days if I didn't make any progress and didn't have a repeatable phenomenon, mentally file it as confusion and not try to update other beliefs. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/science-as-curi.html "If you thought the light bulb was scientifically inexplicable, it would seize the entirety of your attention. You would drop whatever else you were doing, and focus on that light bulb." Rolf Nelson’s point about lazy believers seems to give the lie to this part of an old post. I would drop whatever else I was doing, but presumably lazy believers, which may include the large majority of people, would not. Honestly, even though I would drop what I was doing I would probably put it behind me in a few days if I didn’t make any progress and didn’t have a repeatable phenomenon, mentally file it as confusion and not try to update other beliefs.

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/science-as-curi.html
“If you thought the light bulb was scientifically inexplicable, it would seize the entirety of your attention. You would drop whatever else you were doing, and focus on that light bulb.”

]]> By: Doug S. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408286 Doug S. Tue, 12 Feb 2008 15:27:34 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408286 Astrology has been tested and found to be useless many times... Astrology has been tested and found to be useless many times…

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408285 Robin Hanson Tue, 12 Feb 2008 11:45:49 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408285 All, yes there are many other odd topics I didn't list explicitly (including odd markets). No, I wasn't trying to create an exhaustive list of such. Hal, Ian, Anna, yes those might be good other questions to ask. Amara the "I" in SETI refers to "intelligence." All, yes there are many other odd topics I didn’t list explicitly (including odd markets). No, I wasn’t trying to create an exhaustive list of such.

Hal, Ian, Anna, yes those might be good other questions to ask.

Amara the “I” in SETI refers to “intelligence.”

]]> By: londenio http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408284 londenio Tue, 12 Feb 2008 10:51:26 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408284 "Why?" Many other things fulfill the criteria you mention. (1) are believed to exist (2) it would be important to study them (conditional on existence) (3) they might be found in searched for (again, conditional on existence). Replace SETI in the post above by "Angels". Maybe we should poll the public if we should research the sky to see if we can find angels. Or maybe we should overcome our biases and admit that search for ET life has a negative expected value. “Why?”

Many other things fulfill the criteria you mention.
(1) are believed to exist
(2) it would be important to study them (conditional on existence)
(3) they might be found in searched for (again, conditional on existence).

Replace SETI in the post above by “Angels”. Maybe we should poll the public if we should research the sky to see if we can find angels.

Or maybe we should overcome our biases and admit that search for ET life has a negative expected value.

]]> By: Anna Salamon http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408283 Anna Salamon Tue, 12 Feb 2008 09:10:16 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408283 I'd include in your survey: How likely is a given researcher in the field to be a crank? I’d include in your survey: How likely is a given researcher in the field to be a crank?

]]> By: Timothy Underwood http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408282 Timothy Underwood Tue, 12 Feb 2008 08:44:23 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408282 Saying "if it required a tax increase" might be a bad way of getting an accurate response to a question like that, by leading people to vastly overestimate the real cost to them personally of the project. A 100 million dollar study, would be less than one dollar per American household. Perhaps a better question would be "would you be willing to pay one dollar a year to have X studied". Saying “if it required a tax increase” might be a bad way of getting an accurate response to a question like that, by leading people to vastly overestimate the real cost to them personally of the project. A 100 million dollar study, would be less than one dollar per American household. Perhaps a better question would be “would you be willing to pay one dollar a year to have X studied”.

]]> By: Amara http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408281 Amara Tue, 12 Feb 2008 07:12:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408281 I wonder how narrowly-defined was the term: 'SETI', at that conference, because there is extensive research in Europe focused on the life in the universe and the search for planets. For example, the COROT mission has been returning fantastic data, the European Astrobiology Network has been around supporting researchers and meetings since 2001, and ESA's Darwin mission will be launched this year. I wonder how narrowly-defined was the term: ‘SETI’, at that conference, because there is extensive research in Europe focused on the life in the universe and the search for planets. For example, the COROT mission has been returning fantastic data, the European Astrobiology Network has been around supporting researchers and meetings since 2001, and ESA’s Darwin mission will be launched this year.

]]> By: Ian C. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/what-is-worth-s.html#comment-408280 Ian C. Tue, 12 Feb 2008 05:51:19 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/what-is-worth-study.html#comment-408280 I'm sure people care about those things, just not as much as other things, and all government funding is a tradeoff. Maybe one question could be "Would you support funding this activity if it required a tax increase?" I’m sure people care about those things, just not as much as other things, and all government funding is a tradeoff. Maybe one question could be “Would you support funding this activity if it required a tax increase?”

]]>