<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Ignoring Advice</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 19 Mar 2010 01:28:19 -0400</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5</generator>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
		<item>
		<title>By: chuckles</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407681</link>
		<dc:creator>chuckles</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Mar 2008 22:30:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407681</guid>
		<description>A very basic lesson in persuasion is you should try to make your interlocutor  believe that &lt;i&gt;he has come to the conclusion you were trying to impose on him &lt;b&gt;by himself&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/b&gt;.

(Telling this to a would-be salesman is like telling a sprinter to &quot;run fast.&quot;)

If you can &quot;coat&quot; your advice in the guise of the other person&#039;s &lt;i&gt;discovery&lt;/i&gt;, they&#039;ll take it for sure.

Another instance in which people take advice is when it comes from a close, trusted, and respected friend or mentor.

The contrapositive is also true.  This is why teens do not take advice from the high school health teacher.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A very basic lesson in persuasion is you should try to make your interlocutor  believe that <i>he has come to the conclusion you were trying to impose on him <b>by himself</b></i>.</p>
<p>(Telling this to a would-be salesman is like telling a sprinter to &#8220;run fast.&#8221;)</p>
<p>If you can &#8220;coat&#8221; your advice in the guise of the other person&#8217;s <i>discovery</i>, they&#8217;ll take it for sure.</p>
<p>Another instance in which people take advice is when it comes from a close, trusted, and respected friend or mentor.</p>
<p>The contrapositive is also true.  This is why teens do not take advice from the high school health teacher.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: James MacAulay</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407680</link>
		<dc:creator>James MacAulay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Feb 2008 01:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407680</guid>
		<description>Every once in a long while, in a situation where I&#039;m being particularly indecisive and I can&#039;t make up my mind about some low-stakes decision, I&#039;ve been known to flip a coin to help me decide. As far as I can tell, I follow the results of the coin toss roughly half the time, and the other times I go against the flip. From introspection, I&#039;ve come to believe that the reason I value that coin toss is because it gets me to model the consequences of the decision with more immediacy.

Suddenly it&#039;s a matter of: &quot;now this coin toss is going to make me walk out of this store with these boring oatmeal cookies, and I can almost feel them in my mouth right now, and they are going to be bland and dry&quot;

...instead of: &quot;Hmm...oatmeal or fudge-pistachio? How ever will I pick?&quot;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every once in a long while, in a situation where I&#8217;m being particularly indecisive and I can&#8217;t make up my mind about some low-stakes decision, I&#8217;ve been known to flip a coin to help me decide. As far as I can tell, I follow the results of the coin toss roughly half the time, and the other times I go against the flip. From introspection, I&#8217;ve come to believe that the reason I value that coin toss is because it gets me to model the consequences of the decision with more immediacy.</p>
<p>Suddenly it&#8217;s a matter of: &#8220;now this coin toss is going to make me walk out of this store with these boring oatmeal cookies, and I can almost feel them in my mouth right now, and they are going to be bland and dry&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8230;instead of: &#8220;Hmm&#8230;oatmeal or fudge-pistachio? How ever will I pick?&#8221;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Roland</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407679</link>
		<dc:creator>Roland</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 20:30:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407679</guid>
		<description>There is a big difference between two kind of advices:

a) advice that will cost you something to implement, like &#039;stop smoking!&#039; or &#039;eat healthy!&#039;.
b) advice without such cost like &#039;the correct answer to the question is nr. 3&#039;

If you ever tried to break an ingrained habit you know what I&#039;m refering to at a). The big question here becomes what has more power in you: the emotional or rational brain.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a big difference between two kind of advices:</p>
<p>a) advice that will cost you something to implement, like &#8217;stop smoking!&#8217; or &#8216;eat healthy!&#8217;.<br />
b) advice without such cost like &#8216;the correct answer to the question is nr. 3&#8242;</p>
<p>If you ever tried to break an ingrained habit you know what I&#8217;m refering to at a). The big question here becomes what has more power in you: the emotional or rational brain.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Constant</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407678</link>
		<dc:creator>Constant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 19:25:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407678</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;studies showing no effect from randomized trials giving (or not giving) advice to teens about smoking&lt;/i&gt;

How does this sort of study take into account the possibility that the reason the teen (say) does not seem to react to the advice given in the study, is that the teen is already receiving plenty of advice outside of the study?

If the &quot;control group&quot; receiving no advice within the study in fact has received average 50 hours of advice over the years, and if the &quot;advised group&quot; receives 1 hour of advice within the study, then the difference between the &quot;control group&quot; and &quot;advised group&quot; is minuscule.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>studies showing no effect from randomized trials giving (or not giving) advice to teens about smoking</i></p>
<p>How does this sort of study take into account the possibility that the reason the teen (say) does not seem to react to the advice given in the study, is that the teen is already receiving plenty of advice outside of the study?</p>
<p>If the &#8220;control group&#8221; receiving no advice within the study in fact has received average 50 hours of advice over the years, and if the &#8220;advised group&#8221; receives 1 hour of advice within the study, then the difference between the &#8220;control group&#8221; and &#8220;advised group&#8221; is minuscule.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Joseph Buck</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407677</link>
		<dc:creator>Joseph Buck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 18:32:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407677</guid>
		<description>Pseudonymous wrote: &quot;They knew that would be the advice before they were given it, so why should it have an effect?&quot;

This is a good point. Most teens have probably already heard about the health risks of smoking and been warned against it, and most of them have probably already made up their mind based on this previous advice. A better study would give students helpful advice about a subject on which they probably have not been advised before.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pseudonymous wrote: &#8220;They knew that would be the advice before they were given it, so why should it have an effect?&#8221;</p>
<p>This is a good point. Most teens have probably already heard about the health risks of smoking and been warned against it, and most of them have probably already made up their mind based on this previous advice. A better study would give students helpful advice about a subject on which they probably have not been advised before.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Pseudonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407676</link>
		<dc:creator>Pseudonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 18:15:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407676</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;As for smoking advice for teens, this will clearly have no effect.&lt;/i&gt;

What advice are the teens given? Don&#039;t start smoking?

They knew that would be the advice before they were given it, so why should it have an effect?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>As for smoking advice for teens, this will clearly have no effect.</i></p>
<p>What advice are the teens given? Don&#8217;t start smoking?</p>
<p>They knew that would be the advice before they were given it, so why should it have an effect?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Hal Finney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407675</link>
		<dc:creator>Hal Finney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 17:08:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407675</guid>
		<description>I was able to download the Deal or No Deal paper and noticed a few additional interesting facts. First, advice was available in 230 cases but was only consulted in 38. It may be that the rules limit how often advice can be used so it might be strategically unwise to ask for advice too often or too early in the game. Second, when consulted, advice was followed 63.9% of the time (23 times followed vs 13 times ignored). So that is not too strong an example of ignoring advice, although arguably contestants should have followed it more often.

However the case for following advice may not be quite as strong as the authors suggest. The basis of the statistics Robin quotes are that when players followed the audience advice, they were right 16 times out of 23; when players did the opposite of what was advised, they were right 7 times out of 13, a lower percentage. But if players had slavishly followed the audience advice, instead of being right 23 times out of 36, they would actually have done worse. The audience was right only 22 times out of 36. Players, weighing the advice, did slightly better than the audience. It&#039;s not clear then that they should have followed the advice more closely.

The American version of DOND does not use audience advice. Another show that does is Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, which lets players poll the audience one time during a series of increasingly difficult trivia questions. In my informal observations, players almost always do follow the audience advice, and the audience is almost always right.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was able to download the Deal or No Deal paper and noticed a few additional interesting facts. First, advice was available in 230 cases but was only consulted in 38. It may be that the rules limit how often advice can be used so it might be strategically unwise to ask for advice too often or too early in the game. Second, when consulted, advice was followed 63.9% of the time (23 times followed vs 13 times ignored). So that is not too strong an example of ignoring advice, although arguably contestants should have followed it more often.</p>
<p>However the case for following advice may not be quite as strong as the authors suggest. The basis of the statistics Robin quotes are that when players followed the audience advice, they were right 16 times out of 23; when players did the opposite of what was advised, they were right 7 times out of 13, a lower percentage. But if players had slavishly followed the audience advice, instead of being right 23 times out of 36, they would actually have done worse. The audience was right only 22 times out of 36. Players, weighing the advice, did slightly better than the audience. It&#8217;s not clear then that they should have followed the advice more closely.</p>
<p>The American version of DOND does not use audience advice. Another show that does is Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, which lets players poll the audience one time during a series of increasingly difficult trivia questions. In my informal observations, players almost always do follow the audience advice, and the audience is almost always right.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407674</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:41:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407674</guid>
		<description>&quot;Conversely, sometimes when people solicit advice what they&#039;re really after is approval for the decision they&#039;ve already made. If they don&#039;t get it, they&#039;ll stick with their decision anyway.&quot;

George, you beat me to the punch--this is exactly why they ask for the audience&#039;s opinion.  Note that this scenario is much different than the other two, as it entails an immediate and tangible gain or loss.

As for smoking advice for teens, this will clearly have no effect.  Most teens neither have a good understanding of probability nor have any grasp of a 30-year time frame.  Telling them that their risks of lung cancer and heart disease will triple (or whatever) in the distant future is not useful.

My guess is that in general, solicited advice has a greater effect than unsolicited advice, and advice from someone you know has a greater effect than that of a stranger.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Conversely, sometimes when people solicit advice what they&#8217;re really after is approval for the decision they&#8217;ve already made. If they don&#8217;t get it, they&#8217;ll stick with their decision anyway.&#8221;</p>
<p>George, you beat me to the punch&#8211;this is exactly why they ask for the audience&#8217;s opinion.  Note that this scenario is much different than the other two, as it entails an immediate and tangible gain or loss.</p>
<p>As for smoking advice for teens, this will clearly have no effect.  Most teens neither have a good understanding of probability nor have any grasp of a 30-year time frame.  Telling them that their risks of lung cancer and heart disease will triple (or whatever) in the distant future is not useful.</p>
<p>My guess is that in general, solicited advice has a greater effect than unsolicited advice, and advice from someone you know has a greater effect than that of a stranger.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: George Weinberg</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407673</link>
		<dc:creator>George Weinberg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:31:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407673</guid>
		<description>Maybe sometimes when people follow advice it&#039;s primarily about evading responsibility for the decision rather than improving the decision. Conversely, sometimes when people solicit advice what they&#039;re really after is approval for the decision they&#039;ve already made. If they don&#039;t get it, they&#039;ll stick with their decision anyway.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe sometimes when people follow advice it&#8217;s primarily about evading responsibility for the decision rather than improving the decision. Conversely, sometimes when people solicit advice what they&#8217;re really after is approval for the decision they&#8217;ve already made. If they don&#8217;t get it, they&#8217;ll stick with their decision anyway.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Mason</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407672</link>
		<dc:creator>Mason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:52:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/02/ignoring-advice.html#comment-407672</guid>
		<description>&quot;It is not advisable, James, to venture unsolicited opinions. You should spare yourself the embarrassing discovery of their exact value to your listener.&quot;

~Ann Rand

While I agree with Rand and Ian, generally advice should and does go unheeded, sometimes it is valuable to your listener, and the cost is always low, so why not offer away.  Just expect it to be ignored.

As for why people listen sometimes but not others, probably has to do with the listeners awareness of their own level of knowledge, and there perception of the adviser’s level of knowledge.  I suppose the above shows that people are not good at judging these.

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;It is not advisable, James, to venture unsolicited opinions. You should spare yourself the embarrassing discovery of their exact value to your listener.&#8221;</p>
<p>~Ann Rand</p>
<p>While I agree with Rand and Ian, generally advice should and does go unheeded, sometimes it is valuable to your listener, and the cost is always low, so why not offer away.  Just expect it to be ignored.</p>
<p>As for why people listen sometimes but not others, probably has to do with the listeners awareness of their own level of knowledge, and there perception of the adviser’s level of knowledge.  I suppose the above shows that people are not good at judging these.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
