Comments on: Open Thread http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:21:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Ben Jones http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409976 Ben Jones Tue, 29 Jan 2008 09:05:07 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409976 From <a href=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7214524.stm rel="nofollow">here</a>: <i>The asteroid - which carries the rather dull designation 2007 TU24 - will pass by at a distance of 538,000km (334,000 miles), just outside Moon's orbit.</i> Well they were going to call it Alan, but hell, there was already an asteroid with that name! Cheap shot, I know, but science reporting in daily newspapers makes me want to break things. At least this one gets seven paragraphs in before mentioning Hollywood.... From here:

The asteroid – which carries the rather dull designation 2007 TU24 – will pass by at a distance of 538,000km (334,000 miles), just outside Moon’s orbit.

Well they were going to call it Alan, but hell, there was already an asteroid with that name! Cheap shot, I know, but science reporting in daily newspapers makes me want to break things. At least this one gets seven paragraphs in before mentioning Hollywood….

]]> By: tcpkac http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409975 tcpkac Thu, 17 Jan 2008 18:12:43 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409975 Hi Ben, read me more carefully. I am referring to a specific set of biases, experimentally proved to correlate with mental health and happiness. Nowhere do I claim that Taylor & Brown's, or Seligman's, work demonstrates that bias in general correlates to health and happiness ! Hi Ben, read me more carefully. I am referring to a specific set of biases, experimentally proved to correlate with mental health and happiness. Nowhere do I claim that Taylor & Brown’s, or Seligman’s, work demonstrates that bias in general correlates to health and happiness !

]]> By: Ben Jones http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409974 Ben Jones Thu, 17 Jan 2008 11:53:36 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409974 tcpkac, if you were offered a pill that would make you overly self-confident (and hence happy - ?) forever at the cost of your rationality, would you take it? Bear in mind that being happy doesn't make you less wrong. I reject your dichotomy. I would <i>rather</i> be unbiased, happy, healthy, and <i>correctly</i> confident in my own abilities. As far as I know, no study has ruled out this combination. Self-deception correlates positively with perceived happiness? Very possibly, but I'm not changing my stance on rationality based on that. If you believe that rationality (unbiased-ness?) and happiness are mutually exclusive, or even at odds, you're in trouble straight away. tcpkac, if you were offered a pill that would make you overly self-confident (and hence happy – ?) forever at the cost of your rationality, would you take it? Bear in mind that being happy doesn’t make you less wrong.

I reject your dichotomy. I would rather be unbiased, happy, healthy, and correctly confident in my own abilities. As far as I know, no study has ruled out this combination. Self-deception correlates positively with perceived happiness? Very possibly, but I’m not changing my stance on rationality based on that.

If you believe that rationality (unbiased-ness?) and happiness are mutually exclusive, or even at odds, you’re in trouble straight away.

]]> By: tcpkac http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409973 tcpkac Thu, 17 Jan 2008 08:31:49 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409973 There's a body of psychology research which shows a certan set of stable biases are a part of mental health. Specifically, happy, mentally healthy, and effective people have significant positive biases in the areas of self esteem, estimation of degree of control over the environment, and optimism about the future. By contrast, the set of people who have objectively validated self-assessments in those areas are those who are moderately to severely depressed. A good, although not recent, synthesis paper is Taylor & Brown, 'Illusion & Well-Being' : http://io.uwinnipeg.ca/~morton/modern_drama/depression2.pdf The ideas have been developed & popularised by Martin Seligman, he of 'Positive Psychology' fame. So, would the team rather be biased, happy, healthy, and effective, or unbiased, depressive, and inhibited ? There’s a body of psychology research which shows a certan set of stable biases are a part of mental health. Specifically, happy, mentally healthy, and effective people have significant positive biases in the areas of self esteem, estimation of degree of control over the environment, and optimism about the future.
By contrast, the set of people who have objectively validated self-assessments in those areas are those who are moderately to severely depressed.
A good, although not recent, synthesis paper is Taylor & Brown, ‘Illusion & Well-Being’ :
http://io.uwinnipeg.ca/~morton/modern_drama/depression2.pdf
The ideas have been developed & popularised by Martin Seligman, he of ‘Positive Psychology’ fame.
So, would the team rather be biased, happy, healthy, and effective, or unbiased, depressive, and inhibited ?

]]> By: TGGP http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409972 TGGP Wed, 16 Jan 2008 07:32:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409972 Reading <a href="http://isteve.blogspot.com/2008/01/anthrax-case.html" rel="nofollow">this post</a> made me immediately think of this blog. It involves taking an "outside view" of what is most likely and assuming the opposite of your original position and imagining what it would take to persuade you to change your mind. Reading this post made me immediately think of this blog. It involves taking an “outside view” of what is most likely and assuming the opposite of your original position and imagining what it would take to persuade you to change your mind.

]]> By: Anuj http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409971 Anuj Fri, 11 Jan 2008 11:02:28 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409971 You know the more passionate about things you are, the more controversial you get, I am sorry but I have thought a lot about it and personally I find that human chauvinism obscures our vision most of the times all I am going to say is that please "think different", when you talk about such topics you need to do so and Mr. Eliezer certainly brings this to the table You know the more passionate about things you are, the more controversial you get, I am sorry but I have thought a lot about it and personally I find that human chauvinism obscures our vision most of the times all I am going to say is that please “think different”, when you talk about such topics you need to do so and Mr. Eliezer certainly brings this to the table

]]> By: Benjamin Kudria http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409970 Benjamin Kudria Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:22:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409970 Stirling Westrup: I see a byline - perhaps it's your RSS reader? I'm subscribed to: http://www.overcomingbias.com/index.rdf Stirling Westrup: I see a byline – perhaps it’s your RSS reader? I’m subscribed to: http://www.overcomingbias.com/index.rdf

]]> By: Mason http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409969 Mason Mon, 07 Jan 2008 15:45:54 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409969 Has there been a post about credential bias? I don’t know if this is really a bias, but it seems like it may be. The same outrageous statement made by two people one with a PhD and one without would receive very different responses. Same goes for questions asked, in the one case it’s a stupid question not worthy of a response, in the other, it’s an interesting new take. Of course, people with credentials have proved themselves, and discounting the un-credentialed is an easy way to save time. Has there been a post about credential bias?

I don’t know if this is really a bias, but it seems like it may be. The same outrageous statement made by two people one with a PhD and one without would receive very different responses. Same goes for questions asked, in the one case it’s a stupid question not worthy of a response, in the other, it’s an interesting new take.

Of course, people with credentials have proved themselves, and discounting the un-credentialed is an easy way to save time.

]]> By: Daniel Humphries http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409968 Daniel Humphries Sun, 06 Jan 2008 07:26:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409968 Unknown: The other possibility is that they are both overconfident, Eliezer only moreso. I suppose it's also a logically allowable possibility that they are both underconfident, too. On a different, note: OC's repeated baiting in the comments of numerous posts (mainly repeating the same charge without evidence, as far as I can tell), is wearing on me, too. However, I would indeed like to see this concern addressed. I've seen it addressed here and there on posthumanist websites, but I sometimes feel that people proclaiming that the coming tech-revolution will be universal in nature should do some more traveling in Latin America or Africa and be reminded how many people still lack telephones or even electricity. This may not be a very forceful argument, but I often feel I detect a note of rather naive exuberance from people who seem to spend all their lives propped up in front of a computer in Silicon Valley or Oxford or wherever. Is there a Coddled Life Bias in our bestiary? Unknown:

The other possibility is that they are both overconfident, Eliezer only moreso. I suppose it’s also a logically allowable possibility that they are both underconfident, too.

On a different, note:

OC’s repeated baiting in the comments of numerous posts (mainly repeating the same charge without evidence, as far as I can tell), is wearing on me, too.

However, I would indeed like to see this concern addressed. I’ve seen it addressed here and there on posthumanist websites, but I sometimes feel that people proclaiming that the coming tech-revolution will be universal in nature should do some more traveling in Latin America or Africa and be reminded how many people still lack telephones or even electricity. This may not be a very forceful argument, but I often feel I detect a note of rather naive exuberance from people who seem to spend all their lives propped up in front of a computer in Silicon Valley or Oxford or wherever. Is there a Coddled Life Bias in our bestiary?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409967 Robin Hanson Sat, 05 Jan 2008 17:02:10 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/open-thread-17.html#comment-409967 Stagyar, see <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/channel/being-human/mg19626352.400-megamouthy-which-is-the-talkative-sex.html" rel="nofollow">this</a> article. Stagyar, see this article.

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