Comments on: More Presidential Decision Markets! http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:40:11 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Peter Kim http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409700 Peter Kim Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:28:09 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409700 I'm echoing Chuck. More efficient information aggregation should not be confused with more accurate price discovery. The latter is the real goal. I'm not convinced that a marketplace of ideas is NECESSARILY made more efficient by a marketplace of payoff derivatives on those ideas than by the same effort expended on trying to make the idea exchange more efficient in the first place. I’m echoing Chuck. More efficient information aggregation should not be confused with more accurate price discovery. The latter is the real goal. I’m not convinced that a marketplace of ideas is NECESSARILY made more efficient by a marketplace of payoff derivatives on those ideas than by the same effort expended on trying to make the idea exchange more efficient in the first place.

]]> By: Chuck http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409699 Chuck Wed, 09 Jan 2008 13:22:47 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409699 Perhaps you should evaluate the potential for bias in your love of decision markets. Check out the markets failure to predict Clinton's loss in Iowa and her success in New Hampshire. What's supposed to impress me here? http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/nobody-knows-anything/ Perhaps you should evaluate the potential for bias in your love of decision markets. Check out the markets failure to predict Clinton’s loss in Iowa and her success in New Hampshire.

What’s supposed to impress me here?

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/nobody-knows-anything/

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409698 Robin Hanson Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:21:11 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409698 I can finally connect to Intrade and no see Obama too - so have corrected text above. I can finally connect to Intrade and no see Obama too – so have corrected text above.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409697 Robin Hanson Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:39:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409697 Tom, oops - fixed. Obama wasn't there before, but maybe they've added it; the intrade website is down at the moment - probably cyber-attacks from competitors; it really is a wild west out there. Tom, oops – fixed. Obama wasn’t there before, but maybe they’ve added it; the intrade website is down at the moment – probably cyber-attacks from competitors; it really is a wild west out there.

]]> By: Tom McCabe http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409696 Tom McCabe Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:42:10 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409696 "five candidates: Clinton, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney." I count six. “five candidates: Clinton, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney.”

I count six.

]]> By: Matt http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409695 Matt Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:32:13 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409695 So, I have ideas on who would be more effective at meeting these goals, but I'm not really sure how I would translate my thoughts into bets. Given that the contracts only pay out at 100 if the candidate wins AND meets the goal should I multiply my estimate of sucess meeting the goal by the estimate that they will win the election in order to determine my final bet? That seems right to me... So, I have ideas on who would be more effective at meeting these goals, but I’m not really sure how I would translate my thoughts into bets. Given that the contracts only pay out at 100 if the candidate wins AND meets the goal should I multiply my estimate of sucess meeting the goal by the estimate that they will win the election in order to determine my final bet? That seems right to me…

]]> By: Mason http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409694 Mason Tue, 08 Jan 2008 20:51:25 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409694 five? I count seven. Clinton, Obama, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/ five? I count seven.

Clinton, Obama, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

]]> By: tc http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409693 tc Tue, 08 Jan 2008 17:01:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409693 No Obama? No Obama?

]]> By: Silas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/more-presidenti.html#comment-409692 Silas Tue, 08 Jan 2008 17:00:16 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/more-presidential-decision-markets.html#comment-409692 Bets that don't resolve for three years? The opportunity cost of locking away money becomes significant. Any chance they'll allow you to cover your position with a government bond that matures at the right date so you don't have to eat such a huge interest cost? Bets that don’t resolve for three years? The opportunity cost of locking away money becomes significant. Any chance they’ll allow you to cover your position with a government bond that matures at the right date so you don’t have to eat such a huge interest cost?

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