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	<title>Comments on: Leading bias researcher turns out to be&#8230; biased, renounces result</title>
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	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Vargos</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409470</link>
		<dc:creator>Vargos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2008 04:19:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409470</guid>
		<description>Oh, sweet irony.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, sweet irony.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Barkley  Rosser</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409469</link>
		<dc:creator>Barkley  Rosser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 21:01:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409469</guid>
		<description>Doug S.,

The finding you refer to is within a society, based on the relative income effect.
In Japan in the late 1940s, there were a lot of people on the verge of famine,
especially right after 1945.  Still, not much difference in happiness with 1974.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Doug S.,</p>
<p>The finding you refer to is within a society, based on the relative income effect.<br />
In Japan in the late 1940s, there were a lot of people on the verge of famine,<br />
especially right after 1945.  Still, not much difference in happiness with 1974.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Doug S.</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409468</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 19:40:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409468</guid>
		<description>I seem to recall reading that absolute income does increase happiness but only to a point; once you&#039;re out of poverty and no longer have to worry about where your next meal is coming from (figuratively speaking), getting richer doesn&#039;t help happiness very much. In &quot;poor countries&quot; there are a lot more people who &lt;i&gt;do&lt;/i&gt; worry about whether they&#039;re going to survive the next few months, which seems as though it would have a negative influence on happiness, treadmill or no treadmill.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I seem to recall reading that absolute income does increase happiness but only to a point; once you&#8217;re out of poverty and no longer have to worry about where your next meal is coming from (figuratively speaking), getting richer doesn&#8217;t help happiness very much. In &#8220;poor countries&#8221; there are a lot more people who <i>do</i> worry about whether they&#8217;re going to survive the next few months, which seems as though it would have a negative influence on happiness, treadmill or no treadmill.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Barkley  Rosser</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409467</link>
		<dc:creator>Barkley  Rosser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 18:46:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409467</guid>
		<description>I have much respect for Kahnemann, but for some reason he is pushing
a seriously distorted line that is based on one of the most obvious and
flagrant of errors in statistics, confounding cross-section with time-series
results.  He has been supporting the arguments of recent distributors of the
Gallup survey results around the world that find a positive relation between
income and reported happiness (and satisfaction, they are strongly correlated),
as supposedly showing that income does cause happiness after all.

This has been trumpeted in lots of media and lots of blogs, including Marginal
Revolution recently, as supposedly disproving the Easterlin Hypothesis, that
rising income does not necessary lead to rising happiness, when it is the income
of everybody in a society.  People get happier when their incomes rise relative
to that of others within their own society.  To quote Robert Frank: &quot;The happy
man is he whose wife&#039;s sister&#039;s husband makes less money than he does.&quot;

So, what is the deal here?  Easterlin&#039;s findings are based on extensive studies
of time-series data, starting with a study of Japan in the 1970s, where income had
soared at double digit rates for a couple of decades.  No increase in overall
happiness, although the rich tended to be happier than the poor.  This has been
replicated widely, including in the US, where reported happiness actually maxed
out in 1956.  In short, the current set of relations, with higher income countries
being happier than poorer ones, probably held back a half century ago, with not
much change in those rankings, a kind of global version of the relative income
effect that Easterlin found within societies, the rich are happier than the poor,
but only because they are above the poor.  I have suggested elsewhere that there
may be other factors at work in these findings as well, such as pride in national
power, which is correlated strongly with income, and so forth.

I cannot resist adding a really unpleasant point in my view.  I have been given to
understand by high level individuals that the Gallup organization is not making this
data set generally available.  It seems to be available to Kahnemann and a handful of
others, but not to other reputable and respected researchers who have requested access
to it.  Given the huge publicity that has accompanied this data set, much of misguided
as I have just pointed out, I find this peculiar and unscientific.  Indeed, I consider
it a travesty and downright reprehensible.  I find it unfortunate that the very respected
Professor Kahnemann appears to be partaking of this regrettable effort to suppress
scientific reseearch.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have much respect for Kahnemann, but for some reason he is pushing<br />
a seriously distorted line that is based on one of the most obvious and<br />
flagrant of errors in statistics, confounding cross-section with time-series<br />
results.  He has been supporting the arguments of recent distributors of the<br />
Gallup survey results around the world that find a positive relation between<br />
income and reported happiness (and satisfaction, they are strongly correlated),<br />
as supposedly showing that income does cause happiness after all.</p>
<p>This has been trumpeted in lots of media and lots of blogs, including Marginal<br />
Revolution recently, as supposedly disproving the Easterlin Hypothesis, that<br />
rising income does not necessary lead to rising happiness, when it is the income<br />
of everybody in a society.  People get happier when their incomes rise relative<br />
to that of others within their own society.  To quote Robert Frank: &#8220;The happy<br />
man is he whose wife&#8217;s sister&#8217;s husband makes less money than he does.&#8221;</p>
<p>So, what is the deal here?  Easterlin&#8217;s findings are based on extensive studies<br />
of time-series data, starting with a study of Japan in the 1970s, where income had<br />
soared at double digit rates for a couple of decades.  No increase in overall<br />
happiness, although the rich tended to be happier than the poor.  This has been<br />
replicated widely, including in the US, where reported happiness actually maxed<br />
out in 1956.  In short, the current set of relations, with higher income countries<br />
being happier than poorer ones, probably held back a half century ago, with not<br />
much change in those rankings, a kind of global version of the relative income<br />
effect that Easterlin found within societies, the rich are happier than the poor,<br />
but only because they are above the poor.  I have suggested elsewhere that there<br />
may be other factors at work in these findings as well, such as pride in national<br />
power, which is correlated strongly with income, and so forth.</p>
<p>I cannot resist adding a really unpleasant point in my view.  I have been given to<br />
understand by high level individuals that the Gallup organization is not making this<br />
data set generally available.  It seems to be available to Kahnemann and a handful of<br />
others, but not to other reputable and respected researchers who have requested access<br />
to it.  Given the huge publicity that has accompanied this data set, much of misguided<br />
as I have just pointed out, I find this peculiar and unscientific.  Indeed, I consider<br />
it a travesty and downright reprehensible.  I find it unfortunate that the very respected<br />
Professor Kahnemann appears to be partaking of this regrettable effort to suppress<br />
scientific reseearch.</p>
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		<title>By: briarandbramble</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409466</link>
		<dc:creator>briarandbramble</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 18:25:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409466</guid>
		<description>The phrase &quot;renounces result&quot; in the title of this post is inaccurate and misleading.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The phrase &#8220;renounces result&#8221; in the title of this post is inaccurate and misleading.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Kevin Dick</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409465</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 17:35:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409465</guid>
		<description>Back in 1990, I had the honor of a taking a class from Amos Tversky, Kahneman&#039;s frequent research partner who had the misfortune to pass away before the 2002 Nobel was awarded.

His observation, which I assume is shared by Khaneman, is that cognitive biases are similar to perceptual biases.  Just because you know about them, doesn&#039;t mean you can easily correct for them.  Psychologists know that distance perception is affected by all sorts of factors such as atmospheric clarity, presence of reference objects, etc.  That doesn&#039;t mean a psychologist is any better judge of distance than anyone else.  It&#039;s just the way everyone&#039;s brain works.

You need a ruler to do better.  The scientific method is like that ruler for cognitive bias (though imperfect).  This single idea has always stuck with me and is probably the most significant factor in my desire to read this blog.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in 1990, I had the honor of a taking a class from Amos Tversky, Kahneman&#8217;s frequent research partner who had the misfortune to pass away before the 2002 Nobel was awarded.</p>
<p>His observation, which I assume is shared by Khaneman, is that cognitive biases are similar to perceptual biases.  Just because you know about them, doesn&#8217;t mean you can easily correct for them.  Psychologists know that distance perception is affected by all sorts of factors such as atmospheric clarity, presence of reference objects, etc.  That doesn&#8217;t mean a psychologist is any better judge of distance than anyone else.  It&#8217;s just the way everyone&#8217;s brain works.</p>
<p>You need a ruler to do better.  The scientific method is like that ruler for cognitive bias (though imperfect).  This single idea has always stuck with me and is probably the most significant factor in my desire to read this blog.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Erik</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409464</link>
		<dc:creator>Erik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 16:54:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409464</guid>
		<description>Um... Isn&#039;t misinterpreting data what social science is all about?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Um&#8230; Isn&#8217;t misinterpreting data what social science is all about?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Caledonian</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/leading-bias-re.html#comment-409463</link>
		<dc:creator>Caledonian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 14:25:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/leading-bias-researcher-turns-out-to-be-biased-renounces-result.html#comment-409463</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;If this can happen to Daniel Kahneman, it can happen to anyone.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Your emphasis is backwards:  if this can happen to anyone, it can happen to Daniel Kahneman.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>If this can happen to Daniel Kahneman, it can happen to anyone.</p></blockquote>
<p>Your emphasis is backwards:  if this can happen to anyone, it can happen to Daniel Kahneman.</p>
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