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	<title>Comments on: Acceptable Casualties</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Max</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408942</link>
		<dc:creator>Max</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 07:12:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408942</guid>
		<description>I agree with Psychohistoran. Moreover, the second case could as well be &quot;Let&#039;s kill five hundred Koreans&quot; - there is no purpose in killing those who are not the enemy.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with Psychohistoran. Moreover, the second case could as well be &#8220;Let&#8217;s kill five hundred Koreans&#8221; &#8211; there is no purpose in killing those who are not the enemy.</p>
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		<title>By: Psychohistoran</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408941</link>
		<dc:creator>Psychohistoran</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 21:18:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408941</guid>
		<description>This really isn&#039;t a complicated problem. Civilian casualties as the result of an attack on a military target is considered acceptable. Civilian casualties caused for the sake of causing civilian casualties are not acceptable.

If the original hypothetical had some military purpose (say, we know 10 of these 510 family members are in fact top ranking al-Qaeda operatives, but we don&#039;t know which ones), then there would be a meaningful comparison between the two hypotheticals. As it stands, there does not appear to be much of a contradiction.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This really isn&#8217;t a complicated problem. Civilian casualties as the result of an attack on a military target is considered acceptable. Civilian casualties caused for the sake of causing civilian casualties are not acceptable.</p>
<p>If the original hypothetical had some military purpose (say, we know 10 of these 510 family members are in fact top ranking al-Qaeda operatives, but we don&#8217;t know which ones), then there would be a meaningful comparison between the two hypotheticals. As it stands, there does not appear to be much of a contradiction.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Sullivan</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408940</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 18:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408940</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;One can now, of course, begin constructing scenarios where the choice is between spending the entire world&#039;s GDP to defend yourself without losing an innocent life versus defending yourself for free at the cost of a single innocent life. I&lt;/i&gt;

That scenario will be difficult to construct.  As soon as costs begin to get large they become equivalent to some number of innocent lives.  Money represents resources, and as long as there are absolutely poor people, it&#039;s possible to spend small amounts of money in ways that prevent innocent deaths.  Food and various public health measures cost money, and people die every day from their lack.  Spending outrageous amounts of money on a war carries an opportunity cost in these lives, because even if we did none of these alternate things with the money explicitly, if it were simply not taxed, some small percentage of it would be donated to potentially lifesaving causes.  The percentage spent and efficiency do not have to be very good to make a lot of lives saved out of what we&#039;ve spent on the Iraq war, say.  The percentages say that merely letting the taxpayers keep that money would have saved a whole bunch of lives.  Actively using it with life-saving in mind would save a ridiculous number of lives.

&lt;i&gt;In other words, the taboo against assassination exists entirely for the benefit of potential victims, who tend to be high-ranking and influential and famous and so able to perpetuate such a taboo.&lt;/i&gt;

I think we have a winner.  Nice reasoning, Jeff.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>One can now, of course, begin constructing scenarios where the choice is between spending the entire world&#8217;s GDP to defend yourself without losing an innocent life versus defending yourself for free at the cost of a single innocent life. I</i></p>
<p>That scenario will be difficult to construct.  As soon as costs begin to get large they become equivalent to some number of innocent lives.  Money represents resources, and as long as there are absolutely poor people, it&#8217;s possible to spend small amounts of money in ways that prevent innocent deaths.  Food and various public health measures cost money, and people die every day from their lack.  Spending outrageous amounts of money on a war carries an opportunity cost in these lives, because even if we did none of these alternate things with the money explicitly, if it were simply not taxed, some small percentage of it would be donated to potentially lifesaving causes.  The percentage spent and efficiency do not have to be very good to make a lot of lives saved out of what we&#8217;ve spent on the Iraq war, say.  The percentages say that merely letting the taxpayers keep that money would have saved a whole bunch of lives.  Actively using it with life-saving in mind would save a ridiculous number of lives.</p>
<p><i>In other words, the taboo against assassination exists entirely for the benefit of potential victims, who tend to be high-ranking and influential and famous and so able to perpetuate such a taboo.</i></p>
<p>I think we have a winner.  Nice reasoning, Jeff.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin Reid</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408939</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin Reid</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 20:41:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408939</guid>
		<description>Another version would be if the government could design a virus that would be carried asymptomatically by most people, but was designed to kill the host if they were genetically very similar to Osama bin Laden.  Assuming such a virus could be made and was guaranteed not to kill anyone who wasn&#039;t at least a second cousin of Osama, what would be acceptable casualties?

In any case, I would hope that the modern US public disapproves of &#039;terror bombing&#039;, that is bombing designed primarily to cause human misery rather than to destroy the enemy&#039;s means of war.  As far as I know the US hasn&#039;t used an explicit terror bombing strategy since WWII, though US bombing strategies in Vietnam are debatable on this score.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another version would be if the government could design a virus that would be carried asymptomatically by most people, but was designed to kill the host if they were genetically very similar to Osama bin Laden.  Assuming such a virus could be made and was guaranteed not to kill anyone who wasn&#8217;t at least a second cousin of Osama, what would be acceptable casualties?</p>
<p>In any case, I would hope that the modern US public disapproves of &#8216;terror bombing&#8217;, that is bombing designed primarily to cause human misery rather than to destroy the enemy&#8217;s means of war.  As far as I know the US hasn&#8217;t used an explicit terror bombing strategy since WWII, though US bombing strategies in Vietnam are debatable on this score.</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408938</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 20:11:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408938</guid>
		<description>I always thought the taboo against assassination was because the thought process of military leaders (President/King/Emporer/Tsar/whatever) went something like this:

If we kill ten thousand of their soldiers, they will kill ten thousand of ours. That is an acceptable loss for our noble cause.

If we try to assassinate their leaders, they might try to asassinate &lt;i&gt;me!&lt;/i&gt; That is not acceptable under any circumstances.

In other words, the taboo against assassination exists entirely for the benefit of potential victims, who tend to be high-ranking and influential and famous and so able to perpetuate such a taboo.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I always thought the taboo against assassination was because the thought process of military leaders (President/King/Emporer/Tsar/whatever) went something like this:</p>
<p>If we kill ten thousand of their soldiers, they will kill ten thousand of ours. That is an acceptable loss for our noble cause.</p>
<p>If we try to assassinate their leaders, they might try to asassinate <i>me!</i> That is not acceptable under any circumstances.</p>
<p>In other words, the taboo against assassination exists entirely for the benefit of potential victims, who tend to be high-ranking and influential and famous and so able to perpetuate such a taboo.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick (orthonormal)</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408937</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick (orthonormal)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 20:03:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408937</guid>
		<description>The best explanation is that we fundamentally tend to view directly intended acts differently from their forseen consequences (remember the &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Trolley Problem&lt;/a&gt;); so &quot;conducting a bombing campaign with the knowledge that 5000 innocents will die&quot; seems to fall under a different moral heading than does &quot;assassinating 500 people&quot;.

To distinguish this from the hypothesis that it&#039;s about the specificity of the 500 family members, note that we would be just as appalled by an operation that rounded up 500 random Afghanis and killed them as a deterrent to Al Qaeda.  The only thing that removes the moral outrage in the first case is our notion that intended acts are morally incommensurable with not-directly-intended consequences- a dangerous bias indeed, since those on the receiving end tend not to see the distinction so clearly.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The best explanation is that we fundamentally tend to view directly intended acts differently from their forseen consequences (remember the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem" rel="nofollow">Trolley Problem</a>); so &#8220;conducting a bombing campaign with the knowledge that 5000 innocents will die&#8221; seems to fall under a different moral heading than does &#8220;assassinating 500 people&#8221;.</p>
<p>To distinguish this from the hypothesis that it&#8217;s about the specificity of the 500 family members, note that we would be just as appalled by an operation that rounded up 500 random Afghanis and killed them as a deterrent to Al Qaeda.  The only thing that removes the moral outrage in the first case is our notion that intended acts are morally incommensurable with not-directly-intended consequences- a dangerous bias indeed, since those on the receiving end tend not to see the distinction so clearly.</p>
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		<title>By: Larry D'anna</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408936</link>
		<dc:creator>Larry D'anna</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 15:27:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408936</guid>
		<description>This is the same exact mistake that Sam Harris makes in his book when he compares bombing casualties to torture.  Perhaps they are morally comparable, but we are not judging the actions of individuals.  We are judging the actions of governments.  A government that can order torture and assassinations is a good deal more dangerous than a government that can order bombings.  There are certain lines we must never let our governments cross.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is the same exact mistake that Sam Harris makes in his book when he compares bombing casualties to torture.  Perhaps they are morally comparable, but we are not judging the actions of individuals.  We are judging the actions of governments.  A government that can order torture and assassinations is a good deal more dangerous than a government that can order bombings.  There are certain lines we must never let our governments cross.</p>
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		<title>By: Sam B</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408935</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 11:37:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408935</guid>
		<description>My cynicism is such that I&#039;m not sure that Bush would have been impeached. He&#039;d have caused an almighty economic hoo-ha by murdering 500 members of one of the richest families of the country&#039;s leading oil producer, but I think he&#039;d be able to present it as all the fault of the bad guys.

Killing 500 people with the surname Bin Laden would have made more sense than invading a country with no links to Al Qaeda - in fact, one of the region&#039;s few secular governments and one that Bin Laden had outright condemned. Bush kept his job for that even though the result was to reignite the country&#039;s warring factions and incite even more terrorism.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My cynicism is such that I&#8217;m not sure that Bush would have been impeached. He&#8217;d have caused an almighty economic hoo-ha by murdering 500 members of one of the richest families of the country&#8217;s leading oil producer, but I think he&#8217;d be able to present it as all the fault of the bad guys.</p>
<p>Killing 500 people with the surname Bin Laden would have made more sense than invading a country with no links to Al Qaeda &#8211; in fact, one of the region&#8217;s few secular governments and one that Bin Laden had outright condemned. Bush kept his job for that even though the result was to reignite the country&#8217;s warring factions and incite even more terrorism.</p>
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		<title>By: billswift</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408934</link>
		<dc:creator>billswift</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 02:36:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408934</guid>
		<description>Wonderful.  On a blog called Overcoming Bias, almost all of the commenters defended their intuitions rather than trying to reason logically.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wonderful.  On a blog called Overcoming Bias, almost all of the commenters defended their intuitions rather than trying to reason logically.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/acceptable-casu.html#comment-408933</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jan 2008 21:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2008/01/acceptable-casualties.html#comment-408933</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m with Thanatos -- the relevant difference (for explaining any intuitive difference) is the fact that the assassination targets specifically identified individuals, whereas the bombing is just indiscriminate killings. This isn&#039;t &lt;i&gt;necessarily&lt;/i&gt; just a &quot;bias&quot; to be dismissed: there are many cases where the targeted imposition of harms and benefits is clearly worse than a more random distribution (e.g. wrongful &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.philosophyetc.net/2008/01/widespread-discrimination.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;discrimination&lt;/a&gt;). So we have general grounds to be especially averse to the targeted killings. Still, depending on the precise stakes and consequences, I think it most likely that the indiscriminate bombings would also be impermissible. (It is plainly &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.philosophyetc.net/2006/07/analysing-terrorism.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;terrorism&lt;/a&gt;, after all.)
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m with Thanatos &#8212; the relevant difference (for explaining any intuitive difference) is the fact that the assassination targets specifically identified individuals, whereas the bombing is just indiscriminate killings. This isn&#8217;t <i>necessarily</i> just a &#8220;bias&#8221; to be dismissed: there are many cases where the targeted imposition of harms and benefits is clearly worse than a more random distribution (e.g. wrongful <a href="http://www.philosophyetc.net/2008/01/widespread-discrimination.html" rel="nofollow">discrimination</a>). So we have general grounds to be especially averse to the targeted killings. Still, depending on the precise stakes and consequences, I think it most likely that the indiscriminate bombings would also be impermissible. (It is plainly <a href="http://www.philosophyetc.net/2006/07/analysing-terrorism.html" rel="nofollow">terrorism</a>, after all.)</p>
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