Comments on: Too Much Hope http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:56:30 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: James D. Miller http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410434 James D. Miller Thu, 27 Dec 2007 05:57:38 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410434 If this is true lottery tickets must cause poor people lots of unhappiness. If this is true lottery tickets must cause poor people lots of unhappiness.

]]> By: saifedean http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410433 saifedean Thu, 27 Dec 2007 02:39:16 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410433 The Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish described his people's plight by saying: "We are destined to suffer from this deep-rooted affliction: the affliction of hope." علينا ان نصاب بهذا الداء المتأصل, داء الامل The Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish described his people’s plight by saying: “We are destined to suffer from this deep-rooted affliction: the affliction of hope.”

علينا ان نصاب بهذا الداء المتأصل, داء الامل

]]> By: LemmusLemmus http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410432 LemmusLemmus Thu, 27 Dec 2007 01:43:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410432 These are just versions of good-oldfashioned relative deprivation, no? These are just versions of good-oldfashioned relative deprivation, no?

]]> By: Caledonian http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410431 Caledonian Wed, 26 Dec 2007 23:36:48 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410431 <blockquote>Just because your "up" direction is the future doesn't mean you have to keep comparing yourself to the future.</blockquote> That's not how the human mind works. You can argue that isn't how it <i>should</i> work, or that we should work to change our minds from that pattern... ...but that doesn't make our minds work any differently here-and-now, does it.

Just because your “up” direction is the future doesn’t mean you have to keep comparing yourself to the future.

That’s not how the human mind works.

You can argue that isn’t how it should work, or that we should work to change our minds from that pattern…

…but that doesn’t make our minds work any differently here-and-now, does it.

]]> By: Paul Gebheim http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410430 Paul Gebheim Wed, 26 Dec 2007 21:29:34 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410430 Zero, Aha, thanks! Now I remember hearing about it from that ted talk. Must have been some cross-wiring in this poorly structured memory device... Zero,

Aha, thanks! Now I remember hearing about it from that ted talk. Must have been some cross-wiring in this poorly structured memory device…

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410429 Eliezer Yudkowsky Wed, 26 Dec 2007 19:32:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410429 <i>Assuming the results in the original post generalize, transhumanists who expect to see massively human-condition-improving technologies within their lifetime should be significantly unhappier than other people.</i> Just because your "up" direction is the future doesn't mean you have to keep comparing yourself to the future. You can just as easily compare yourself to a Middle Ages peasant and think, "Wow, they were <i>completely</i> screwed, not even any cryonics." It looks to me like most folks only see a future as different from the present, as the size of the largest change that separates their present from their childhood. Nanotech sounds "absurd" because they don't remember the invention of electricity; the Singularity sounds "absurd" because they don't remember being a chimpanzee. A transhumanist (should) have a much wider historical perspective, which creates a much larger gradient between the past and the future. But which one you mentally compare yourself to is up to you. Assuming the results in the original post generalize, transhumanists who expect to see massively human-condition-improving technologies within their lifetime should be significantly unhappier than other people.

Just because your “up” direction is the future doesn’t mean you have to keep comparing yourself to the future. You can just as easily compare yourself to a Middle Ages peasant and think, “Wow, they were completely screwed, not even any cryonics.”

It looks to me like most folks only see a future as different from the present, as the size of the largest change that separates their present from their childhood. Nanotech sounds “absurd” because they don’t remember the invention of electricity; the Singularity sounds “absurd” because they don’t remember being a chimpanzee.

A transhumanist (should) have a much wider historical perspective, which creates a much larger gradient between the past and the future. But which one you mentally compare yourself to is up to you.

]]> By: Zero http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410428 Zero Wed, 26 Dec 2007 19:21:06 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410428 Paul Gebheim: I don't have a link to the paper, but Dan Gilbert talks about it in the video at the link below (starting at ~10:00). http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/97 Paul Gebheim: I don’t have a link to the paper, but Dan Gilbert talks about it in the video at the link below (starting at ~10:00).

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/97

]]> By: Sebastian Hagen http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410427 Sebastian Hagen Wed, 26 Dec 2007 19:10:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410427 <i>"you're thinking, I can't wait until I get rid of this."</i> I have thoughs like that fairly frequently, about things like having to eat, having to sleep, having very limited I/O bandwith and my mind being a black box to me (to the point where I can't even make backups). Assuming the results in the original post generalize, transhumanists who expect to see massively human-condition-improving technologies within their lifetime should be significantly unhappier than other people. “you’re thinking, I can’t wait until I get rid of this.”
I have thoughs like that fairly frequently, about things like having to eat, having to sleep, having very limited I/O bandwith and my mind being a black box to me (to the point where I can’t even make backups).

Assuming the results in the original post generalize, transhumanists who expect to see massively human-condition-improving technologies within their lifetime should be significantly unhappier than other people.

]]> By: Paul Gebheim http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410426 Paul Gebheim Wed, 26 Dec 2007 18:07:03 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410426 This brings back echoes of Dostoevsky's The Grand Inquisitor, only there it's applied to the great existential hope that Christianity casts over a society. The Inquisitor notes to the silent Jesus that the path to happiness isn't through Freedom or Choice, but through control and lack of concern over daily things (or something like that). Old Dusty wasn't the perkiest of fellows, but he did seem to get some things right :-) Also, I think one of Eliezer's papers points out a study where college-aged pupils were taking a photography class. At the end got to choose one picture to take home and the other photos would be kept by the instructor. Half of the students were told their choice would be final, the other half were told they were allowed to exchange the photo they chose for another if they changed their mind. Guess who was happier with their choice? (p.s. Anyone have a link to this?) This brings back echoes of Dostoevsky’s The Grand Inquisitor, only there it’s applied to the great existential hope that Christianity casts over a society. The Inquisitor notes to the silent Jesus that the path to happiness isn’t through Freedom or Choice, but through control and lack of concern over daily things (or something like that). Old Dusty wasn’t the perkiest of fellows, but he did seem to get some things right :-)

Also, I think one of Eliezer’s papers points out a study where college-aged pupils were taking a photography class. At the end got to choose one picture to take home and the other photos would be kept by the instructor. Half of the students were told their choice would be final, the other half were told they were allowed to exchange the photo they chose for another if they changed their mind.

Guess who was happier with their choice?
(p.s. Anyone have a link to this?)

]]> By: rukidding http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410425 rukidding Wed, 26 Dec 2007 17:33:15 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/12/too-much-hope.html#comment-410425 The solution to the dilemma is the development of (no sarcasm, honestly) peace about outcomes. If you can balance the benefits of possible improvement in your situation with acceptance of the chance that you won't improve, you can have the best of both worlds. The problem isn't the hope, it's the over-weighting of both the chance of improvement and the benefit. The solution to the dilemma is the development of (no sarcasm, honestly) peace about outcomes. If you can balance the benefits of possible improvement in your situation with acceptance of the chance that you won’t improve, you can have the best of both worlds. The problem isn’t the hope, it’s the over-weighting of both the chance of improvement and the benefit.

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