Comments on: US South Had 42% Chance http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/us-south-had-42.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Douglas Knight http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/us-south-had-42.html#comment-412222 Douglas Knight Sun, 18 Nov 2007 22:11:37 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/11/us-south-had-42-chance.html#comment-412222 This seems useful. Anyone who tries to explain the outcome of that war should also try to explain the contemporary predictions. Ideally, one should do this before predictions have been extracted from markets. Two natural follow-up questions: (1) how does this compare to other predictions made explicitly (though qualitatively) at the time? (2) What information was revealed at Gettysburg? Two distinct classes of information occur to me: a. the quality of the Union generals b. the relevance of industry to war Given how bad Lincoln was at judging generals, (a) was probably information only available from battles, but (b) is information that someone paying close attention might have figured out without ahead of time. This seems useful. Anyone who tries to explain the outcome of that war should also try to explain the contemporary predictions. Ideally, one should do this before predictions have been extracted from markets.

Two natural follow-up questions: (1) how does this compare to other predictions made explicitly (though qualitatively) at the time?

(2) What information was revealed at Gettysburg? Two distinct classes of information occur to me:
a. the quality of the Union generals
b. the relevance of industry to war

Given how bad Lincoln was at judging generals, (a) was probably information only available from battles, but (b) is information that someone paying close attention might have figured out without ahead of time.

]]> By: TGGP http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/us-south-had-42.html#comment-412221 TGGP Sun, 18 Nov 2007 20:46:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/11/us-south-had-42-chance.html#comment-412221 If you believe in determinism, everything that ever occurs is inevitable. Probabilities reflect our lack of information. Under some interpretations of relativity I've read, everything that ever occurs in a certain sense has already occurred but we merely perceive events to occur after one another. If you believe in determinism, everything that ever occurs is inevitable. Probabilities reflect our lack of information. Under some interpretations of relativity I’ve read, everything that ever occurs in a certain sense has already occurred but we merely perceive events to occur after one another.

]]> By: denis bider http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/us-south-had-42.html#comment-412220 denis bider Sun, 18 Nov 2007 18:15:22 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/11/us-south-had-42-chance.html#comment-412220 That doesn't mean the outcome wasn't inevitable, it could just mean that it took the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg for information on the war's likely outcome to become generally available. That doesn’t mean the outcome wasn’t inevitable, it could just mean that it took the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg for information on the war’s likely outcome to become generally available.

]]>