Comments on: Why I’m Betting on the Red Sox http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:21:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Pete http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413670 Pete Mon, 05 Nov 2007 20:40:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413670 The Red Sox win, the Pats are kicking Colts ass... its a great time to be a Boston fan. The Celtics are actually looking good too. I'm thinking about putting some money on a <a href="http://www.wagerweb.com/sports-betting-line/sporting-events-news.html" rel="nofollow">betting line</a> I found, if all 3 teams win the championship I get 10:1 (the patriots are a sure bet, the celtics could pull it off) What do you think? Go BOSOX! The Red Sox win, the Pats are kicking Colts ass… its a great time to be a Boston fan. The Celtics are actually looking good too. I’m thinking about putting some money on a betting line I found, if all 3 teams win the championship I get 10:1 (the patriots are a sure bet, the celtics could pull it off) What do you think?
Go BOSOX!

]]> By: KingM http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413669 KingM Tue, 30 Oct 2007 01:45:57 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413669 And now you look like a genius for this post, as the Rockies looked helpless for four games. And now you look like a genius for this post, as the Rockies looked helpless for four games.

]]> By: mobile http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413668 mobile Mon, 29 Oct 2007 21:39:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413668 Of course, if the Rockies had a hot hand, it sure didn't benefit from lying between the ground and an @ss for eight days. Good scheduling job, MLB. -- mobile the Rockies apologist Of course, if the Rockies had a hot hand, it sure didn’t benefit from lying between the ground and an @ss for eight days. Good scheduling job, MLB.

– mobile the Rockies apologist

]]> By: michael webster http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413667 michael webster Sat, 27 Oct 2007 17:09:24 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413667 If you are actually going to make the bet, how much of your bankroll are you going to bet and why? If you are actually going to make the bet, how much of your bankroll are you going to bet and why?

]]> By: Floccina http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413666 Floccina Fri, 26 Oct 2007 00:26:03 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413666 Aren't those who believe in streaks balanced by those who believe that a team is due? We used to joke about this where I once worked. Aren’t those who believe in streaks balanced by those who believe that a team is due? We used to joke about this where I once worked.

]]> By: douglas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413665 douglas Thu, 25 Oct 2007 16:59:12 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413665 J- My objection is to the misuse of statistical analysis. Why quote a flawed study when less flawed more acurate studies exist? Why do a statistical analysis on a situation where the basic assumptions that the math is based on don't fit? Why make far-reaching conclusions on analysis that don't apply to the situation being analyzed? (Am I ranting yet?) J-
My objection is to the misuse of statistical analysis.
Why quote a flawed study when less flawed more acurate studies exist?
Why do a statistical analysis on a situation where the basic assumptions that the math is based on don’t fit?
Why make far-reaching conclusions on analysis that don’t apply to the situation being analyzed?
(Am I ranting yet?)

]]> By: J Thomas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413664 J Thomas Thu, 25 Oct 2007 13:04:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413664 I don't understand the objection. Sometimes when one side gets a streak it's because of luck, and they're no more likely to win next time because of it. Sometimes it's because they have something special going for them that changed the odds. How do you tell which it is, unless you get special knowledge? Then maybe the streak ends. It's unusual for somebody to come up from behind unless they have something special going for them, that's new. Other things equal, if you get behind you're likely to stay behind. You can get a streak because you get some special advantage, and the streak ends when you lose the special advantage or somebody else gets a better one. Or you can get a streak by sheer random chance. If people suppose it's something special more often than it is, how could we balance that? I don’t understand the objection. Sometimes when one side gets a streak it’s because of luck, and they’re no more likely to win next time because of it.

Sometimes it’s because they have something special going for them that changed the odds.

How do you tell which it is, unless you get special knowledge?

Then maybe the streak ends. It’s unusual for somebody to come up from behind unless they have something special going for them, that’s new. Other things equal, if you get behind you’re likely to stay behind. You can get a streak because you get some special advantage, and the streak ends when you lose the special advantage or somebody else gets a better one. Or you can get a streak by sheer random chance.

If people suppose it’s something special more often than it is, how could we balance that?

]]> By: douglas http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413663 douglas Thu, 25 Oct 2007 00:39:44 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413663 The studies that show that there is such a thing as a hot-hand include Smith (2003), Frame et al (2003), and Dorsey-Palmateer and Smith (2004). These studies were done on horseshoes and bowling games where their is no defense on the guy who gets hot. One of the reasons studying basketball is not appropriate for the study of hot hands is that the guy who gets hot gets defended differently. This change in defense (Opposing coaches would often have their players foul me or double cover when I got hot, for example) makes the study completely different than studying a random phenomena. I wonder if Gilovich ever played basketball. Any game where the defense can change their stategy in response to someone getting hot is not a good game for the study of "randomness". The studies that show that there is such a thing as a hot-hand include Smith (2003), Frame et al (2003), and Dorsey-Palmateer and Smith (2004).
These studies were done on horseshoes and bowling games where their is no defense on the guy who gets hot.
One of the reasons studying basketball is not appropriate for the study of hot hands is that the guy who gets hot gets defended differently. This change in defense (Opposing coaches would often have their players foul me or double cover when I got hot, for example) makes the study completely different than studying a random phenomena.
I wonder if Gilovich ever played basketball.
Any game where the defense can change their stategy in response to someone getting hot is not a good game for the study of “randomness”.

]]> By: nick http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413662 nick Thu, 25 Oct 2007 00:29:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413662 In most social betting venues, for example horse racing, there is a bias in favor of the long shot: that is the long shot's odds as set by the bettors are usually not quite as long as the actual odds (measured statistically afterwards). Apparently people are willing to pay extra for the bragging rights to having won on a long shot. However, the quoted odds usually do not get so out of whack with the actual odds as to be larger than the vigorish -- that would create an arbitrage opportunity. In most social betting venues, for example horse racing, there is a bias in favor of the long shot: that is the long shot’s odds as set by the bettors are usually not quite as long as the actual odds (measured statistically afterwards). Apparently people are willing to pay extra for the bragging rights to having won on a long shot. However, the quoted odds usually do not get so out of whack with the actual odds as to be larger than the vigorish — that would create an arbitrage opportunity.

]]> By: will perkins http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/10/why-im-betting.html#comment-413661 will perkins Thu, 25 Oct 2007 00:03:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/10/why-im-betting-on-the-red-sox.html#comment-413661 What about the bias of rooting interest? There are a lot more Red Sox fans around the country who want to bet on their team than Rockies fans. What about the bias of rooting interest? There are a lot more Red Sox fans around the country who want to bet on their team than Rockies fans.

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