Comments on: Truth Bias http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 18:23:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Your Strength As A Rationalist | Think That Through http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-499678 Your Strength As A Rationalist | Think That Through Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:04:31 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-499678 [...] have realized, perhaps, that an unknown acquaintance of an acquaintance in an IRC channel might be less reliable than a published journal article. Alas, belief is easier than disbelief; we believe instinctively, [...] [...] have realized, perhaps, that an unknown acquaintance of an acquaintance in an IRC channel might be less reliable than a published journal article. Alas, belief is easier than disbelief; we believe instinctively, [...]

]]> By: Manon de Gaillande http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416993 Manon de Gaillande Thu, 03 Jan 2008 00:21:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416993 It's much more than just politeness; we're better off believing a statement like "Don't put your hand in the oven, it will burn you" than checking whether it's true. It’s much more than just politeness; we’re better off believing a statement like “Don’t put your hand in the oven, it will burn you” than checking whether it’s true.

]]> By: THE BIZOP NEWS http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416994 THE BIZOP NEWS Sat, 11 Aug 2007 01:17:17 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416994 <strong>How to Lie and Influence People</strong> Here is an interesting thesis, in this new book, discussed at Overcomingbias, Truth Bias The book Detecting Lies and Deceit by Aldert Vrij mentions evidence... How to Lie and Influence People

Here is an interesting thesis, in this new book, discussed at Overcomingbias, Truth Bias The book Detecting Lies and Deceit by Aldert Vrij mentions evidence…

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416992 Peter McCluskey Fri, 10 Aug 2007 19:26:58 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416992 Robin, it's clear that we don't treat friends and enemies the same way, and I would expect people to be overly suspicious of enemies. The studies in question seem to partly deal with this by observing interactions with strangers, but they're probably strangers of the same culture. It would be interesting to see how much the results change if the studies put people of obviously different cultures together, or do the experiments with people in cultures that are more suspicious of strangers. Robin, it’s clear that we don’t treat friends and enemies the same way, and I would expect people to be overly suspicious of enemies.
The studies in question seem to partly deal with this by observing interactions with strangers, but they’re probably strangers of the same culture. It would be interesting to see how much the results change if the studies put people of obviously different cultures together, or do the experiments with people in cultures that are more suspicious of strangers.

]]> By: Pablo Stafforini http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416991 Pablo Stafforini Fri, 10 Aug 2007 17:59:57 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416991 Douglas, A lie is not just a false statement, but one made with deliberate intent to deceive. As characterized by Peter, the bias discussed here is one against the proper subclass of lies rather than then larger class of falsehoods. But one may wonder whether we have a bias against falsehoods on top of our bias against lies. Are people also more likely to correctly judge that a true statement is true than that a false statement is false? (Perhaps we are disposed to believe more than the evidence warrants, and hence end up judging more false statements true than true statements false.) Douglas,

A lie is not just a false statement, but one made with deliberate intent to deceive. As characterized by Peter, the bias discussed here is one against the proper subclass of lies rather than then larger class of falsehoods. But one may wonder whether we have a bias against falsehoods on top of our bias against lies. Are people also more likely to correctly judge that a true statement is true than that a false statement is false? (Perhaps we are disposed to believe more than the evidence warrants, and hence end up judging more false statements true than true statements false.)

]]> By: Douglas Knight http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416990 Douglas Knight Fri, 10 Aug 2007 17:13:39 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416990 Pablo Stafforini, which evidence distinguishes the two hypotheses? Pablo Stafforini,
which evidence distinguishes the two hypotheses?

]]> By: Pablo Stafforini http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416989 Pablo Stafforini Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:59:52 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416989 This is not a <em>truth</em> bias; it is a <em>truthfulness</em> bias. The evidence doesn't show that we are more likely to believe true statements than to disbelieve false ones. It shows that we are more likely to believe what truthful people say than to disbelieve what liars say. It would be interesting to know if, on top of a truthfulness bias disposing us to be insufficiently distrustful of lies, we also have a truth bias disposing us to be insufficiently sceptical of falsehoods. This is not a truth bias; it is a truthfulness bias. The evidence doesn’t show that we are more likely to believe true statements than to disbelieve false ones. It shows that we are more likely to believe what truthful people say than to disbelieve what liars say. It would be interesting to know if, on top of a truthfulness bias disposing us to be insufficiently distrustful of lies, we also have a truth bias disposing us to be insufficiently sceptical of falsehoods.

]]> By: Keith Elis http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416988 Keith Elis Fri, 10 Aug 2007 10:57:01 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416988 I would be interested to know if truth bias is consistent across both males and females to the same degree. I would be interested to know if truth bias is consistent across both males and females to the same degree.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416987 Robin Hanson Fri, 10 Aug 2007 08:38:20 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416987 It seems to me this is mainly caused by wanting to think well of the people we associate with. I wonder if we have the same, or the opposite, bias regarding statements by foreigners, or by our rivals. It seems to me this is mainly caused by wanting to think well of the people we associate with. I wonder if we have the same, or the opposite, bias regarding statements by foreigners, or by our rivals.

]]> By: Doug S. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416986 Doug S. Fri, 10 Aug 2007 07:57:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/truth-bias.html#comment-416986 So... what does this tell me about how often I should bluff in poker? So… what does this tell me about how often I should bluff in poker?

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