Comments on: The Importance of Saying “Oops” http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:03:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Once in a civilization mistake http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417166 Once in a civilization mistake Sat, 27 Sep 2008 23:00:20 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417166 A few years ago I realized I'd been totally wrong for the past two decades - my entire professional life. It felt like my life had been wasted, because, in fact, it had been; none of the skills, none of the knowledge I possessed applied to my new situation. The solid steel building I thought I'd built was turned to sand and blown away in one terrible instant. Now after years of previously unimaginable success following that epiphany, it all seems like a bad dream, like that part of my life really never happened. The current me is unable to see into the mind that made those mistakes. It was someone else. That guy could never have achieved what I have now. A few years ago I realized I’d been totally wrong for the past two decades – my entire professional life. It felt like my life had been wasted, because, in fact, it had been; none of the skills, none of the knowledge I possessed applied to my new situation. The solid steel building I thought I’d built was turned to sand and blown away in one terrible instant.

Now after years of previously unimaginable success following that epiphany, it all seems like a bad dream, like that part of my life really never happened. The current me is unable to see into the mind that made those mistakes. It was someone else. That guy could never have achieved what I have now.

]]> By: Krishna http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417165 Krishna Sun, 23 Sep 2007 03:20:51 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417165 Well said, Bilk. I agree with you in that not many are endowed with the faculties to spot the rot early on and the eventual courage to walk down the road with the blonde cheerleader. Deeper we are mired, harder it gets to come out. I could tangent it to a space travel metaphor. A slew of peripheral factors get built around the `wrong' that becomes the core, to which our existence (including that of our family) gravitates and extrication would call for application of an intense escape velocity, impossible at a time when we are nearly out of gas and don't even have cruising speed. Even if we manage that, somehow, somehow, we'll find ourselves propelled into a space, a new environment that offers neither gravity nor any kind of support to which we’ve grown so much used to, where we just have to stay suspended not knowing where to go... It's this vision of uncertainty that holds us back from abject confession, tempting us to evaluate the cost v. benefit that in the near term will mostly be reclining more towards *cost* ( that of shame induced fear, the looming prospect of sudden loss of self esteem) than *benefit* (lightness of conscience, a clean slate, scope for restart) . There is also a grail of hope that there'll-soon-be-a-way-out that tempts us to let our folly will lie buried deep within till we choose to turn the spigot on, at an hour when we have the advantage and to an audience that will laud our triumph than laugh at our misjudgment. Hope we are one here. Well said, Bilk. I agree with you in that not many are endowed with the faculties to spot the rot early on and the eventual courage to walk down the road with the blonde cheerleader. Deeper we are mired, harder it gets to come out. I could tangent it to a space travel metaphor. A slew of peripheral factors get built around the `wrong’ that becomes the core, to which our existence (including that of our family) gravitates and extrication would call for application of an intense escape velocity, impossible at a time when we are nearly out of gas and don’t even have cruising speed. Even if we manage that, somehow, somehow, we’ll find ourselves propelled into a space, a new environment that offers neither gravity nor any kind of support to which we’ve grown so much used to, where we just have to stay suspended not knowing where to go… It’s this vision of uncertainty that holds us back from abject confession, tempting us to evaluate the cost v. benefit that in the near term will mostly be reclining more towards *cost* ( that of shame induced fear, the looming prospect of sudden loss of self esteem) than *benefit* (lightness of conscience, a clean slate, scope for restart) . There is also a grail of hope that there’ll-soon-be-a-way-out that tempts us to let our folly will lie buried deep within till we choose to turn the spigot on, at an hour when we have the advantage and to an audience that will laud our triumph than laugh at our misjudgment.

Hope we are one here.

]]> By: BillK http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417164 BillK Sat, 22 Sep 2007 18:27:12 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417164 Eliezer, I agree completely. That is exactly the point of my original remark. Knowing that you should cut your losses due to a previous mistaken decision is not the difficult part. Deciding to actually do it and face the consequences is probably one of the hardest things people have to face in their life. It affects people personally because they have to admit that they have spent possibly many years on the wrong path. In some cases it will also have serious consequences on their friends and family. Some people find it so hard to do that they will commit suicide in preference. Eliezer, I agree completely.

That is exactly the point of my original remark. Knowing that you should cut your losses due to a previous mistaken decision is not the difficult part. Deciding to actually do it and face the consequences is probably one of the hardest things people have to face in their life. It affects people personally because they have to admit that they have spent possibly many years on the wrong path. In some cases it will also have serious consequences on their friends and family.

Some people find it so hard to do that they will commit suicide in preference.

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417163 Eliezer Yudkowsky Sat, 22 Sep 2007 17:55:03 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417163 BillK, the external consequences of that are the same whether you were just teleported into the situation or got into it yourself. Though I agree that the internal consequences may be different, if you truly did, in the past, give your word. Krishna, of course the Enron collapse was complicated, but - at least according to the book I read - they were drinking their own Kool-Aid. BillK, the external consequences of that are the same whether you were just teleported into the situation or got into it yourself. Though I agree that the internal consequences may be different, if you truly did, in the past, give your word.

Krishna, of course the Enron collapse was complicated, but – at least according to the book I read – they were drinking their own Kool-Aid.

]]> By: BillK http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417162 BillK Sat, 22 Sep 2007 14:13:35 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417162 John wrote: All you have to do is to periodically pretend that you were magically teleported into your current situation. Anything else is the sunk cost fallacy. Yup! I agree. That's *all* you have to do. Try explaining that to your wife, when you decide that you didn't really want to have a mortgage, two kids to bring up, a job with no prospects, etc. and that the sunk cost fallacy means that you are going off to California with the blonde cheerleader down the road. You'll probably find it real easy. ;) John wrote: All you have to do is to periodically pretend that you were magically teleported into your current situation. Anything else is the sunk cost fallacy.

Yup! I agree. That’s *all* you have to do.

Try explaining that to your wife, when you decide that you didn’t really want to have a mortgage, two kids to bring up, a job with no prospects, etc. and that the sunk cost fallacy means that you are going off to California with the blonde cheerleader down the road.

You’ll probably find it real easy. ;)

]]> By: Krishna http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417161 Krishna Sat, 22 Sep 2007 13:05:49 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417161 I don't think the "oops" situation will show up early under all circumstances. If it's a situation where we've been before, tasting success and failure, we could sense its symptoms and diagnose early. But if it's a new venture and we are passionate about it, we'll give it a longer rope hoping for the best. That said, Enron collapse had many dimensions. Not just the non-admission of a mistake or not having the gall to capitulate. The perpetrators walked into it with eyes wide open, perhaps relying on the theory of "greater fool" - that goes there will always be a greater fool to whom you can palm off your bad bets. Had they been lucky, they would've even gotten away with it all - perhaps selling off to a Private Equity fund just like Sam Zell did (with Equity Office Trust) to Blackstone, sensing the madness of subprime early on, and Schwarzman going public and cashing out... Wouldn't you agree, Eleizer...? I don’t think the “oops” situation will show up early under all circumstances. If it’s a situation where we’ve been before, tasting success and failure, we could sense its symptoms and diagnose early. But if it’s a new venture and we are passionate about it, we’ll give it a longer rope hoping for the best.

That said, Enron collapse had many dimensions. Not just the non-admission of a mistake or not having the gall to capitulate. The perpetrators walked into it with eyes wide open, perhaps relying on the theory of “greater fool” – that goes there will always be a greater fool to whom you can palm off your bad bets. Had they been lucky, they would’ve even gotten away with it all – perhaps selling off to a Private Equity fund just like Sam Zell did (with Equity Office Trust) to Blackstone, sensing the madness of subprime early on, and Schwarzman going public and cashing out…

Wouldn’t you agree, Eleizer…?

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417160 Eliezer Yudkowsky Sat, 22 Sep 2007 06:45:44 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417160 Excellent heuristic, John! Excellent heuristic, John!

]]> By: John http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417159 John Sat, 22 Sep 2007 05:02:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417159 BillK said: "It really is the hardest thing in life for people to decide when to cut their losses." No it's not. All you have to do is to periodically pretend that you were magically teleported into your current situation. Anything else is the sunk cost fallacy. BillK said:

“It really is the hardest thing in life for people to decide when to cut their losses.”

No it’s not. All you have to do is to periodically pretend that you were magically teleported into your current situation. Anything else is the sunk cost fallacy.

]]> By: Bernard Guerrero http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417158 Bernard Guerrero Tue, 07 Aug 2007 18:57:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417158 Eliezer, Not so much recognizing mistakes too early. Rather, mistakenly seeing a mistake where there isn't one. False positives abound. Eliezer,

Not so much recognizing mistakes too early. Rather, mistakenly seeing a mistake where there isn’t one. False positives abound.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-importance.html#comment-417157 Hopefully Anonymous Tue, 07 Aug 2007 18:52:27 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-importance-of-saying-oops.html#comment-417157 Eliezer, not bothering to go after a goal may fall into that category. For example, it's reasonable to choose to live an average life, because one is probably mistaken if one thinks one is likely to have strongly positively deviant outcomes in life, such as becoming a billionaire, or procreating with a 1 in a million beauty, or winning a nobel prize for one's academic contributions, or becoming an A list celebrity. So one may choose never to invest in going after these goals, and devote the balance of one's time and energy to optimizing one's odds of maintaining a median existence, in terms of achievements and experiences. I could name people who seem to be doing that, but you've never heard of them. Eliezer, not bothering to go after a goal may fall into that category. For example, it’s reasonable to choose to live an average life, because one is probably mistaken if one thinks one is likely to have strongly positively deviant outcomes in life, such as becoming a billionaire, or procreating with a 1 in a million beauty, or winning a nobel prize for one’s academic contributions, or becoming an A list celebrity. So one may choose never to invest in going after these goals, and devote the balance of one’s time and energy to optimizing one’s odds of maintaining a median existence, in terms of achievements and experiences. I could name people who seem to be doing that, but you’ve never heard of them.

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