Comments on: The Apocalypse Bet http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:21:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Joshua Fox http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417014 Joshua Fox Thu, 16 Aug 2007 08:55:13 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417014 Someone who believes that a Singularity is likely at, say 2030, might save less for retirement than they otherwise would. I wonder if Singularitarians really do so? (Some believe that the rich will be the first and only ones to afford the technologies of Transcendence. I don't believe that, but one who did might save up after all.) Someone who believes that a Singularity is likely at, say 2030, might save less for retirement than they otherwise would. I wonder if Singularitarians really do so?

(Some believe that the rich will be the first and only ones to afford the technologies of Transcendence. I don’t believe that, but one who did might save up after all.)

]]> By: Douglas Knight http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417013 Douglas Knight Fri, 10 Aug 2007 22:33:07 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417013 <em>(parody, I think) story</em> The <em>story</em> was for real. The <a href=http://google.com/search?q=cache:postrapturepost.com rel="nofollow">site</a>, I dunno, but it does <a href=http://google.com/search?q=cache:postrapturepost.com/order.html rel="nofollow">accept money</a> through paypal. (parody, I think) story

The story was for real. The site, I dunno, but it does accept money through paypal.

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417012 michael vassar Fri, 10 Aug 2007 19:23:56 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417012 I won't try to argue for particular opportunities here on OB. Suffice it to say that if markets price in a random mix of the assumption that things will stay the same and the assumption that trends will stay the same because participants don't distinguish between those two statements incoherence exists and arbitrage is possible. I won’t try to argue for particular opportunities here on OB. Suffice it to say that if markets price in a random mix of the assumption that things will stay the same and the assumption that trends will stay the same because participants don’t distinguish between those two statements incoherence exists and arbitrage is possible.

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417011 Peter McCluskey Fri, 10 Aug 2007 19:10:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417011 Michael, I don't understand what opportunities you're referring to that could qualify as arbitrage. Also, reputation isn't necessarily needed - there are many investors who would use their own money to exploit the relevant opportunities if there were good reason to think they could be identified, without needing to convince clients of anything. One of the reasons I don't try to exploit opportunities that I can imagine involving apocalypse in the 2020s is that I think it's unlikely that markets will see any new information in the next few years that would make those opportunities less profitable if I wait to try exploiting them. Michael, I don’t understand what opportunities you’re referring to that could qualify as arbitrage. Also, reputation isn’t necessarily needed – there are many investors who would use their own money to exploit the relevant opportunities if there were good reason to think they could be identified, without needing to convince clients of anything.
One of the reasons I don’t try to exploit opportunities that I can imagine involving apocalypse in the 2020s is that I think it’s unlikely that markets will see any new information in the next few years that would make those opportunities less profitable if I wait to try exploiting them.

]]> By: Stuart Armstrong http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417010 Stuart Armstrong Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:38:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417010 I remember reading a (parody, I think) story a few years ago about a set up for Rapture-worried Christians to leave messages to their less devout loved ones, reassuring them after the Christians were raptured. Those in charge of passing on the message would guarrantee that they themselves would not be raptured by "blaspheming the holy spirit" or something of that nature. People have been trying to get some post-apocalypse deals for some time (someone even saught ways of ensuring that taboos over nuclear wastes would survive a civilization collapse). But the Christians above at least knew the nature of the Rapture; to get a sensible bet on the singularity, you´de have to know a lot more about the post-singularity world than is generally allowed. It sounds likely that gold will be valueless after the singularity - but we can construct scenarios, not TOOO unplausible sounding, that would end up in gold being increadibly valuble after a singularity. I feel it is ignorance not of the date, but of the nature of the singularity, that is the true barrier to sensible betting on it. I remember reading a (parody, I think) story a few years ago about a set up for Rapture-worried Christians to leave messages to their less devout loved ones, reassuring them after the Christians were raptured. Those in charge of passing on the message would guarrantee that they themselves would not be raptured by “blaspheming the holy spirit” or something of that nature.
People have been trying to get some post-apocalypse deals for some time (someone even saught ways of ensuring that taboos over nuclear wastes would survive a civilization collapse). But the Christians above at least knew the nature of the Rapture; to get a sensible bet on the singularity, you´de have to know a lot more about the post-singularity world than is generally allowed. It sounds likely that gold will be valueless after the singularity – but we can construct scenarios, not TOOO unplausible sounding, that would end up in gold being increadibly valuble after a singularity.
I feel it is ignorance not of the date, but of the nature of the singularity, that is the true barrier to sensible betting on it.

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417009 michael vassar Fri, 10 Aug 2007 13:13:28 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417009 Peter McCluskey: I would say rather that markets more than a few years into the future normally say an incoherent and arbitrage filled mix of "things will stay the same" and "existing trends will continue". These are two very different but not generally mentally differentiated statements. In practice the time required to build a strong reputation as a money manager via long-term prediction is too great for the market to provide any selective pressure in favor of managers capable of closing such arbitrage opportunities. Peter McCluskey: I would say rather that markets more than a few years into the future normally say an incoherent and arbitrage filled mix of “things will stay the same” and “existing trends will continue”. These are two very different but not generally mentally differentiated statements. In practice the time required to build a strong reputation as a money manager via long-term prediction is too great for the market to provide any selective pressure in favor of managers capable of closing such arbitrage opportunities.

]]> By: Tom McCabe http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417008 Tom McCabe Fri, 10 Aug 2007 06:52:05 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417008 "Markets for more than a few years into the future normally say that the best forecast is that conditions will stay the same and/or that existing trends will continue." Judging from the crude oil data, futures markets tend to lag current prices; ie, if the current price was $20 a few days/weeks/months/years ago, the futures price will be $20 today. Markets have short-term memories; they think of "normal" as what conditions have been like for the past few years, and so if there's a deviation from "normal" (in either direction), people predict that the deviation will correct itself over time. “Markets for more than a few years into the future normally say that the best forecast is that conditions will stay the same and/or that existing trends will continue.”

Judging from the crude oil data, futures markets tend to lag current prices; ie, if the current price was $20 a few days/weeks/months/years ago, the futures price will be $20 today. Markets have short-term memories; they think of “normal” as what conditions have been like for the past few years, and so if there’s a deviation from “normal” (in either direction), people predict that the deviation will correct itself over time.

]]> By: Peter McCluskey http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417007 Peter McCluskey Fri, 10 Aug 2007 04:22:09 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417007 The treasury bond market appears to be as close to such a market as we can expect to get. It shows interest rates for bonds maturing in 2027 with a yield about 0.20% higher than those maturing in 2017, and bonds maturing in 2037 have a lower interest rate than those maturing in 2027. That's a clear prediction that apocalypse isn't expected. Markets for more than a few years into the future normally say that the best forecast is that conditions will stay the same and/or that existing trends will continue. The treasury bond market appears to be as close to such a market as we can expect to get. It shows interest rates for bonds maturing in 2027 with a yield about 0.20% higher than those maturing in 2017, and bonds maturing in 2037 have a lower interest rate than those maturing in 2027. That’s a clear prediction that apocalypse isn’t expected.
Markets for more than a few years into the future normally say that the best forecast is that conditions will stay the same and/or that existing trends will continue.

]]> By: Tom McCabe http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417006 Tom McCabe Fri, 10 Aug 2007 03:51:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417006 I'm not convinced that prediction markets supply data that's any more accurate than the predictions of individuals. Consider the market in crude oil futures; crude oil is much simpler and therefore much easier to predict than a Friendly intelligence explosion, and yet the data (http://www.durangobill.com/OilChart.html) shows that futures are horrifically inaccurate at predicting future prices. In fact, for most of the past six years, you could have done better at predicting the price of crude oil by using the *current price* instead of the future-market price. Does anyone have a link to a paper studying how accurate prediction markets are, compared to individual guessing? I’m not convinced that prediction markets supply data that’s any more accurate than the predictions of individuals. Consider the market in crude oil futures; crude oil is much simpler and therefore much easier to predict than a Friendly intelligence explosion, and yet the data (http://www.durangobill.com/OilChart.html) shows that futures are horrifically inaccurate at predicting future prices. In fact, for most of the past six years, you could have done better at predicting the price of crude oil by using the *current price* instead of the future-market price. Does anyone have a link to a paper studying how accurate prediction markets are, compared to individual guessing?

]]> By: Tom McCabe http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/the-apocalypse.html#comment-417005 Tom McCabe Fri, 10 Aug 2007 03:24:08 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/the-apocalypse-bet.html#comment-417005 Eliezer: Both Douglas Hofstadter and Ray Kurzweil have two children (http://www.acm.org/crossroads/xrds10-2/hofstadter.html, http://sgouros.com/judy/reviews/hofstadter.html, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/05/14/100008848/). Eliezer: Both Douglas Hofstadter and Ray Kurzweil have two children (http://www.acm.org/crossroads/xrds10-2/hofstadter.html, http://sgouros.com/judy/reviews/hofstadter.html, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/05/14/100008848/).

]]>