Comments on: How to Torture a Reluctant Disagreer http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:21:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Winds of Change.NET http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417350 Winds of Change.NET Sat, 04 Aug 2007 08:13:00 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417350 <strong>Vitriol, veritas, and working email addresses</strong> What kind of "bar" do we run here at Winds of Change? In the "comments guidelines":http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/003367.php and associated thread, Joe Katzman mentions "backchannel discussion". But what if there's no backchannel availab... Vitriol, veritas, and working email addresses

What kind of “bar” do we run here at Winds of Change?

In the “comments guidelines”:http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/003367.php and associated thread, Joe Katzman mentions “backchannel discussion”. But what if there’s no backchannel availab…

]]> By: Tobbic http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417349 Tobbic Thu, 02 Aug 2007 07:12:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417349 A person's belief system contains some beliefs which are vague or clouded. These beliefs serve as a ground for opinions (or choosing not to voice certain opinions). Were the person defend these opinions in occasion of disagreement, IMO he has to clarify these beliefs and their origins in order to defend his position. If clouded beliefs are not clarified it seems impossible to continue the argument and debate concludes: "person couldn't give evidence for his opinions". In my experince, clouded beliefs (which I have had plenty and by all odds still have) can result from intuision, a hunch or an emotional reflex. Defending an opinion grounded on vague intuition is hard 'cause you have to clarify& think through the belief yourself while avoiding a swarm of rationalizations coming to your mind. A person’s belief system contains some beliefs which are vague or clouded. These beliefs serve as a ground for opinions (or choosing not to voice certain opinions). Were the person defend these opinions in occasion of disagreement, IMO he has to clarify these beliefs and their origins in order to defend his position. If clouded beliefs are not clarified it seems impossible to continue the argument and debate concludes: “person couldn’t give evidence for his opinions”.

In my experince, clouded beliefs (which I have had plenty and by all odds still have) can result from intuision, a hunch or an emotional reflex. Defending an opinion grounded on vague intuition is hard ’cause you have to clarify& think through the belief yourself while avoiding a swarm of rationalizations coming to your mind.

]]> By: TGGP http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417348 TGGP Thu, 02 Aug 2007 00:48:45 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417348 I think Tyler wants to be likable and tries to avoid disagreements (this might be why he writes about culture a lot rather than rolling in the economic argument mud and saying things like, for example, FDR and the New Deal were wrongheaded, as <a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2007/01/not_normal_on_t.html" rel="nofollow">Alex</a> and <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/01/roosevelts_law.html" rel="nofollow">Bryan</a> did gleefully). Robin's ideas are odd and unpopular, so Tyler cannot "drink the Kool-Aid" too deeply, and certainly does not wish to signal that he has. He stays vague because he doesn't really want to get in a disagreement with Robin. And that's my amateur psych bull-session for the day. I think Tyler wants to be likable and tries to avoid disagreements (this might be why he writes about culture a lot rather than rolling in the economic argument mud and saying things like, for example, FDR and the New Deal were wrongheaded, as Alex and Bryan did gleefully). Robin’s ideas are odd and unpopular, so Tyler cannot “drink the Kool-Aid” too deeply, and certainly does not wish to signal that he has. He stays vague because he doesn’t really want to get in a disagreement with Robin. And that’s my amateur psych bull-session for the day.

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417347 Eliezer Yudkowsky Thu, 02 Aug 2007 00:14:24 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417347 Tyler, it's old advice, but I'd look for a difference of anticipated experience and work back from there. Tyler, it’s old advice, but I’d look for a difference of anticipated experience and work back from there.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417346 Hopefully Anonymous Wed, 01 Aug 2007 21:54:44 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417346 Two smart people disagree on something. This could be a great opportunity to create a prediction market. Two smart people disagree on something. This could be a great opportunity to create a prediction market.

]]> By: Tyler Cowen http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417345 Tyler Cowen Wed, 01 Aug 2007 21:46:30 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417345 I am drafting a further post on where Robin and I agree and disagree. But I think it boils down to frameworks, as I outlined in the post that some of you found vague. It's harder to specify a broad framework in very exact terms, in that sense it is more vague than a clearly articulable difference in beliefs about specific facts. But different opinions can in fact result from differences in (possibly vague) frameworks. I don't see any a priori reason to discriminate against explanations of this kind. "Clouds" are possibly a vaguer scientific notion than "this duck sitting at some particular GPS coordinates," but that doesn't mean "clouds" cannot be a relevant causal force or perhaps a more relevant causal force than that particular duck. I am drafting a further post on where Robin and I agree and disagree. But I think it boils down to frameworks, as I outlined in the post that some of you found vague. It’s harder to specify a broad framework in very exact terms, in that sense it is more vague than a clearly articulable difference in beliefs about specific facts. But different opinions can in fact result from differences in (possibly vague) frameworks. I don’t see any a priori reason to discriminate against explanations of this kind. “Clouds” are possibly a vaguer scientific notion than “this duck sitting at some particular GPS coordinates,” but that doesn’t mean “clouds” cannot be a relevant causal force or perhaps a more relevant causal force than that particular duck.

]]> By: Norman Siebrasse http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417344 Norman Siebrasse Wed, 01 Aug 2007 20:24:41 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417344 I agree with Biomed Tim's observation that it is difficult for a presenter to know how they will be perceived, and it is therefore difficult for the presenter to know which strategy is appropriate for a given audience. I don't think that most people choose their strategy rationally or even consciously. Rather, most people discover what works best for them on a trial and error basis. I agree with Biomed Tim’s observation that it is difficult for a presenter to know how they will be perceived, and it is therefore difficult for the presenter to know which strategy is appropriate for a given audience. I don’t think that most people choose their strategy rationally or even consciously. Rather, most people discover what works best for them on a trial and error basis.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417343 Hopefully Anonymous Wed, 01 Aug 2007 19:25:14 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417343 "David Bernstein over at the law department should be invited in to adjudicate this fued and allow everyone to move on to theoretical musings that don't threaten friendships. This Tyler on Hanson on Tyler mud wrestling match undermines the blog's purpose with its expert bias, confirmation bias, bias blind spot, and various other biases and attribution errors endemic to a hotly contested, personal, off-the cuff fued." I disagree with pretty much everything in this paragraph. And I find it hard to believe any friendship is being threatened by the Tyler/Hanson discussion here. Feud? “David Bernstein over at the law department should be invited in to adjudicate this fued and allow everyone to move on to theoretical musings that don’t threaten friendships. This Tyler on Hanson on Tyler mud wrestling match undermines the blog’s purpose with its expert bias, confirmation bias, bias blind spot, and various other biases and attribution errors endemic to a hotly contested, personal, off-the cuff fued.”

I disagree with pretty much everything in this paragraph. And I find it hard to believe any friendship is being threatened by the Tyler/Hanson discussion here. Feud?

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417342 Hopefully Anonymous Wed, 01 Aug 2007 19:23:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417342 Guy, I didn't think so. It seemed like an easy joke any of us could reach for at any time. Guy, I didn’t think so. It seemed like an easy joke any of us could reach for at any time.

]]> By: guy in the veal calf office http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/how-to-torture.html#comment-417341 guy in the veal calf office Wed, 01 Aug 2007 19:03:29 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/how-to-torture-a-reluctant-disagreer.html#comment-417341 Sorry about mispelling your name, Eliezer Sorry about mispelling your name, Eliezer

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