Comments on: Accountable Public Opinion http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/accountable-pub.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Chad Walters http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/accountable-pub.html#comment-416985 Chad Walters Mon, 13 Aug 2007 05:36:59 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/accountable-public-opinion.html#comment-416985 <i>Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq ... did in fact have the support of most American citizens, which surely egged him on.</i> One could imagine that a good percentage of the American public feels that their support was garnered by misleading evidence presented by an administration bent on going to war. <i>What would the voice of the public acknowledging its errors look like?</i> I humbly suggest that it might look something like November 7, 2006. Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq … did in fact have the support of most American citizens, which surely egged him on.

One could imagine that a good percentage of the American public feels that their support was garnered by misleading evidence presented by an administration bent on going to war.

What would the voice of the public acknowledging its errors look like?

I humbly suggest that it might look something like November 7, 2006.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/accountable-pub.html#comment-416984 Robin Hanson Fri, 10 Aug 2007 20:57:49 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/accountable-public-opinion.html#comment-416984 Barkely, the idea is that only those who do trade count when measuring net public opinion. The others are interpreted as having opted for silence on the issue. I certainly do <i>not</i> presume that the market price would have always been the same as public opinion as we currently measure it. Barkely, the idea is that only those who do trade count when measuring net public opinion. The others are interpreted as having opted for silence on the issue. I certainly do not presume that the market price would have always been the same as public opinion as we currently measure it.

]]> By: Barkley Rosser http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/accountable-pub.html#comment-416983 Barkley Rosser Fri, 10 Aug 2007 20:43:53 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/accountable-public-opinion.html#comment-416983 Robin, But, for the public to somehow be made to be held accountable would mean that one would have to require the public to engage in buying into such futarchic markets. If they do not, then so what? So, yesterday many thought the Iraq War was a good idea, but now that they have seen it go on and on for several years without the outcomes predicted by many, including the president, they have changed their minds. Presumably a futarchic market would simply reflect this as well, but would only affect those who actually bought into it one way or the other. Robin,

But, for the public to somehow be made to be held accountable would mean that one would have to require the public to engage in buying into such futarchic markets. If they do not, then so what? So, yesterday many thought the Iraq War was a good idea, but now that they have seen it go on and on for several years without the outcomes predicted by many, including the president, they have changed their minds. Presumably a futarchic market would simply reflect this as well, but would only affect those who actually bought into it one way or the other.

]]> By: Stuart Armstrong http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/accountable-pub.html#comment-416982 Stuart Armstrong Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:22:11 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/accountable-public-opinion.html#comment-416982 <i>Yet this voice has never acknowledged its previous errors.</i> What would the voice of the public acknowledging its errors look like? I can´t see how it could be made to work - individual members of the public might acknowledge their errors, but how would this translate to the public at large? Yet this voice has never acknowledged its previous errors.
What would the voice of the public acknowledging its errors look like? I can´t see how it could be made to work – individual members of the public might acknowledge their errors, but how would this translate to the public at large?

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/accountable-pub.html#comment-416981 michael vassar Fri, 10 Aug 2007 13:18:04 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/08/accountable-public-opinion.html#comment-416981 OTOH, by allowing people to change their minds without admitting error you probably get more changing of minds, which could be good. Unsophisticated investors usually buy more of their looser stocks, why wouldn't unsophisticated voters do the same with looser wars? OTOH, by allowing people to change their minds without admitting error you probably get more changing of minds, which could be good. Unsophisticated investors usually buy more of their looser stocks, why wouldn’t unsophisticated voters do the same with looser wars?

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