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	<title>Comments on: &#8220;Only Losers Overcome Bias&#8221;</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: manuel noel</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-506431</link>
		<dc:creator>manuel noel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Sep 2011 23:32:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-506431</guid>
		<description>Under my knowledge to overcame bias (any category) are just one way,not two or three or something like all roads give us to Roma.Mind and the concept of time are the core of the matter,past and future are concepts,the called present is the face of the impermanence,other concept,but,this in particular describe how the phenomena of live is,so,if somebody want to overcame bias,most be,through calm and insight,realize:all we have in this life,like ours,is  be aware of this always fresh moment,so ,is impossible any partial thought,if some thought show up it will be impartial,healhty expression of our cognizant mind nature.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Under my knowledge to overcame bias (any category) are just one way,not two or three or something like all roads give us to Roma.Mind and the concept of time are the core of the matter,past and future are concepts,the called present is the face of the impermanence,other concept,but,this in particular describe how the phenomena of live is,so,if somebody want to overcame bias,most be,through calm and insight,realize:all we have in this life,like ours,is  be aware of this always fresh moment,so ,is impossible any partial thought,if some thought show up it will be impartial,healhty expression of our cognizant mind nature.</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417413</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Aug 2007 23:29:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417413</guid>
		<description>But nerdy quadraplegics are cool! There aren&#039;t a whole lot, but Stephen Hawking has more than enough celebrity power to make up for all the loser nerdy quadraplegics out there.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But nerdy quadraplegics are cool! There aren&#8217;t a whole lot, but Stephen Hawking has more than enough celebrity power to make up for all the loser nerdy quadraplegics out there.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417412</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 15:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417412</guid>
		<description>David, we should distinguish a weak claim, that given our ends we are reasonable to join together here to overcome bias, from a strong claim, that everyone should do so.  The weak claim can be true even if the strong claim is not.

Eliezer, that is Tyler&#039;s best suggestion.

Tom, that is only true if you can change your beliefs without changing your observable behavior.  That seems to be false for most humans.

Ray, if you choose not to work at it, you can become not less self-deceived.

Michael, many of us have been married a lot longer than you, and have seen contrary indications.


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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David, we should distinguish a weak claim, that given our ends we are reasonable to join together here to overcome bias, from a strong claim, that everyone should do so.  The weak claim can be true even if the strong claim is not.</p>
<p>Eliezer, that is Tyler&#8217;s best suggestion.</p>
<p>Tom, that is only true if you can change your beliefs without changing your observable behavior.  That seems to be false for most humans.</p>
<p>Ray, if you choose not to work at it, you can become not less self-deceived.</p>
<p>Michael, many of us have been married a lot longer than you, and have seen contrary indications.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417411</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 12:57:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417411</guid>
		<description>Anecdote Alert...
I can&#039;t refrain any longer from mentioning that in 6+ years of marriage I have consistently found an abnormally strong focus on rational truth-seeking and analysis to be more useful in marriage as it is anywhere except math/science/engineering.  Maybe even close to engineering, which I don&#039;t know well and which seems pretty messy in practice most of the time.  I&#039;m sure that self-deception can help to keep people reasonably content in basically bad relationships, but I don&#039;t think that they are better off this way, at least if they are young.  I see FAR more mediocre relationships that should end but don&#039;t or that end far later than they should than good ones that do end.  Other than outside sex partners I can&#039;t think of anything that I would like which honesty in my marriage serves as a barrier to, and self deception seems like an extremely implausible approach on that one (though people can be pretty spectacularly self-deceiving).

What I would say actually makes good marriage and good familial relationships most unlikely in the US is a distorted idea of equality.  We aren&#039;t biologically wired for equality and so long as we are playing status games we can&#039;t achieve it for long or without discomfort, but lower relative status in a small social group which generally avoids playing status games is not very costly.  Rationality solves the need to use status conflicts to resolve disagreements, but when it fails, defaulting to status or to intensity of preference (always a major criterion in human or primate social groups) works better than looking for mutually unsatisfactory compromises.

OTOH, maybe people are usually just not smart enough or self-controlled enough for this proposal to work well and it requires that both parties be very smart and that one be at least fairly self-consciously rational as well (it&#039;s pretty disastrous for the less dominant party when the more dominant one is highly unreasonable).  The only couples that I have seen that have my unqualified approval meet this criterion, but one shouldn&#039;t criticize society for not universalizing solutions dependent on scarce resources.  Probably the only fairly high confidence unpopular and anecdotal advice I have for fairly typical people is, &quot;if you have high socio-economic-status and intelligence, use more intoxicants, odds are that you can afford to, and you probably need to loosen up.  If you have low socio-economic-status and intelligence use fewer intoxicants, you probably don&#039;t need to loosen up so much and need the inhibitions you have.  Becoming Mormon is probably a good idea instead.  Also, live somewhere relatively inexpensive.&quot;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anecdote Alert&#8230;<br />
I can&#8217;t refrain any longer from mentioning that in 6+ years of marriage I have consistently found an abnormally strong focus on rational truth-seeking and analysis to be more useful in marriage as it is anywhere except math/science/engineering.  Maybe even close to engineering, which I don&#8217;t know well and which seems pretty messy in practice most of the time.  I&#8217;m sure that self-deception can help to keep people reasonably content in basically bad relationships, but I don&#8217;t think that they are better off this way, at least if they are young.  I see FAR more mediocre relationships that should end but don&#8217;t or that end far later than they should than good ones that do end.  Other than outside sex partners I can&#8217;t think of anything that I would like which honesty in my marriage serves as a barrier to, and self deception seems like an extremely implausible approach on that one (though people can be pretty spectacularly self-deceiving).</p>
<p>What I would say actually makes good marriage and good familial relationships most unlikely in the US is a distorted idea of equality.  We aren&#8217;t biologically wired for equality and so long as we are playing status games we can&#8217;t achieve it for long or without discomfort, but lower relative status in a small social group which generally avoids playing status games is not very costly.  Rationality solves the need to use status conflicts to resolve disagreements, but when it fails, defaulting to status or to intensity of preference (always a major criterion in human or primate social groups) works better than looking for mutually unsatisfactory compromises.</p>
<p>OTOH, maybe people are usually just not smart enough or self-controlled enough for this proposal to work well and it requires that both parties be very smart and that one be at least fairly self-consciously rational as well (it&#8217;s pretty disastrous for the less dominant party when the more dominant one is highly unreasonable).  The only couples that I have seen that have my unqualified approval meet this criterion, but one shouldn&#8217;t criticize society for not universalizing solutions dependent on scarce resources.  Probably the only fairly high confidence unpopular and anecdotal advice I have for fairly typical people is, &#8220;if you have high socio-economic-status and intelligence, use more intoxicants, odds are that you can afford to, and you probably need to loosen up.  If you have low socio-economic-status and intelligence use fewer intoxicants, you probably don&#8217;t need to loosen up so much and need the inhibitions you have.  Becoming Mormon is probably a good idea instead.  Also, live somewhere relatively inexpensive.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Tobbic</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417410</link>
		<dc:creator>Tobbic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 07:25:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417410</guid>
		<description>Ray G: Given intentions are conscious, self-deception is conscious and ppl are rational &amp; unable to forget, intentional self-deception is not possible.

To perform a belief it might be useful to believe it yourself. It seems to me there are mechanisms in human psyche (i belive that psyche is more than just a conscious mind) to enable for self-deception such as forgetting, selective perception, choosing not to think, etc. I&#039;d say these are largely unconscious. So if you want to belive something very hard even though you know it&#039;s not true (=self-deceive), i think it&#039;s possible make that happen. An example might be defence mechanisms against traumas. Or capture-bonding (Stockholm syndrome). These are extreme examples, i&#039;d think this happens in smaller scale in every day life.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ray G: Given intentions are conscious, self-deception is conscious and ppl are rational &#038; unable to forget, intentional self-deception is not possible.</p>
<p>To perform a belief it might be useful to believe it yourself. It seems to me there are mechanisms in human psyche (i belive that psyche is more than just a conscious mind) to enable for self-deception such as forgetting, selective perception, choosing not to think, etc. I&#8217;d say these are largely unconscious. So if you want to belive something very hard even though you know it&#8217;s not true (=self-deceive), i think it&#8217;s possible make that happen. An example might be defence mechanisms against traumas. Or capture-bonding (Stockholm syndrome). These are extreme examples, i&#8217;d think this happens in smaller scale in every day life.</p>
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		<title>By: Hopefully Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417409</link>
		<dc:creator>Hopefully Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 02:48:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417409</guid>
		<description>P.S. Although when weighing the probative value of my analysis, you should keep in mind that I also reserve analytical space for the possibility that you are all turing machines interacting with me as part of a perplexity maximizing utility function. It might be more accurate to say that I reserve analytical space for the posibility that you are all NOT that.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>P.S. Although when weighing the probative value of my analysis, you should keep in mind that I also reserve analytical space for the possibility that you are all turing machines interacting with me as part of a perplexity maximizing utility function. It might be more accurate to say that I reserve analytical space for the posibility that you are all NOT that.</p>
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		<title>By: Hopefully Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417408</link>
		<dc:creator>Hopefully Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 02:35:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417408</guid>
		<description>Carl, I don&#039;t have a firm estimate of the rationality of celebrities (meaning the degree to which they&#039;re rationally interest-optimizing). But I acknowledge that just because celebrities and their audiences (us) may be similarly vested in a popular perception that the celebrity is dumb or irrational, or just achieved their success due to singing voice and (rationality-denuded) social charisma, it doesn&#039;t mean that it is in fact true.

I reserve analytical space for a model where the celebrity is nontransparently, consciously, self-interest maximizing. It seems strange to me that one would advocate reserving no analytical space for such a model of individuals who effectively acquire or maintain a disprorportionate share of a scarce, valued social good. It would be like reserving no space for an analytical model of top earning poker players as positively deviantly good bluffers and social manipulators.

HOWEVER, I do see the value of publicly performing a belief that such celebrities are as dumb as they &quot;act&quot;. Because if acting dumb has value to celebrities, it may have situational social value to an observer, too. So expect HA to non-anonymously espouse an opinion that celebrities are dumb, and bioscience Ph.D.&#039;s working on their 3rd post-doc postion are really, really smart. At least when it&#039;s in my apparent self-interest. ;-)
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Carl, I don&#8217;t have a firm estimate of the rationality of celebrities (meaning the degree to which they&#8217;re rationally interest-optimizing). But I acknowledge that just because celebrities and their audiences (us) may be similarly vested in a popular perception that the celebrity is dumb or irrational, or just achieved their success due to singing voice and (rationality-denuded) social charisma, it doesn&#8217;t mean that it is in fact true.</p>
<p>I reserve analytical space for a model where the celebrity is nontransparently, consciously, self-interest maximizing. It seems strange to me that one would advocate reserving no analytical space for such a model of individuals who effectively acquire or maintain a disprorportionate share of a scarce, valued social good. It would be like reserving no space for an analytical model of top earning poker players as positively deviantly good bluffers and social manipulators.</p>
<p>HOWEVER, I do see the value of publicly performing a belief that such celebrities are as dumb as they &#8220;act&#8221;. Because if acting dumb has value to celebrities, it may have situational social value to an observer, too. So expect HA to non-anonymously espouse an opinion that celebrities are dumb, and bioscience Ph.D.&#8217;s working on their 3rd post-doc postion are really, really smart. At least when it&#8217;s in my apparent self-interest. <img src='http://www.overcomingbias.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Carl Shulman</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417407</link>
		<dc:creator>Carl Shulman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 01:15:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417407</guid>
		<description>Matthew C,

&quot;If they could stay out of rehab and/or jail more frequently, and if their relationships were not constantly in chaos, I might believe that. . .&quot;

While I think HA does systematically overestimate the rationality of celebrities and wealthy individuals (many relevant abilities, such as a good singing voice, height, and social charisma are poorly correlated with rationality, so we should expect their rationality to be less exceptional than their celebrity on average), particularly given his survival-focused account of self-interested rationality, it&#039;s worth noting that many celebrity blowups are manufactured for profit. Historically, movie studios matched up their stars to create buzz, and today individual celebrities and their publicists do the same.

WRT jail time, check for availability bias. Paris Hilton aside, it&#039;s quite rare for major celebrities able to afford top-notch legal representation to be imprisoned, and they enjoy the benefits of flouting the law many times for each instance in which they are brought to account.

Rehab? Does a period in rather luxurious rehab outweigh the social and happiness benefits of a hedonistic lifestyle?

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matthew C,</p>
<p>&#8220;If they could stay out of rehab and/or jail more frequently, and if their relationships were not constantly in chaos, I might believe that. . .&#8221;</p>
<p>While I think HA does systematically overestimate the rationality of celebrities and wealthy individuals (many relevant abilities, such as a good singing voice, height, and social charisma are poorly correlated with rationality, so we should expect their rationality to be less exceptional than their celebrity on average), particularly given his survival-focused account of self-interested rationality, it&#8217;s worth noting that many celebrity blowups are manufactured for profit. Historically, movie studios matched up their stars to create buzz, and today individual celebrities and their publicists do the same.</p>
<p>WRT jail time, check for availability bias. Paris Hilton aside, it&#8217;s quite rare for major celebrities able to afford top-notch legal representation to be imprisoned, and they enjoy the benefits of flouting the law many times for each instance in which they are brought to account.</p>
<p>Rehab? Does a period in rather luxurious rehab outweigh the social and happiness benefits of a hedonistic lifestyle?</p>
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		<title>By: Matthew C</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417406</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew C</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 00:47:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417406</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;I think successful celebrities are more likely to be rational self-interest optimizers: hence, probably have less internal bias in decision-making.&lt;/i&gt;

If they could stay out of rehab and/or jail more frequently, and if their relationships were not constantly in chaos, I might believe that. . .

Compare with - say - Fortune 500 executives, dotcom internet millionaires, bond traders, etc. . .
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>I think successful celebrities are more likely to be rational self-interest optimizers: hence, probably have less internal bias in decision-making.</i></p>
<p>If they could stay out of rehab and/or jail more frequently, and if their relationships were not constantly in chaos, I might believe that. . .</p>
<p>Compare with &#8211; say &#8211; Fortune 500 executives, dotcom internet millionaires, bond traders, etc. . .</p>
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		<title>By: Ray G</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/only-losers-ove.html#comment-417405</link>
		<dc:creator>Ray G</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Aug 2007 00:42:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/only-losers-overcome-bias.html#comment-417405</guid>
		<description>This has been brought up already, but I wanted to elaborate. Leaving off of what I think are other flaws in Tyler&#039;s reasoning, how would one become more self-deceived?

Also, I have doubts as to a universal agreement on the semantics involved here. A person that has learned to let certain aspects of life slide off their back so that they may enjoy life despite its disappointments would likely be labeled as &quot;self-deceived&quot; by many.

There&#039;s a considerable amount of study on survivors and the survivor mentality, and much of it involves people simply refusing to accept their fate. Now, of course, that can easily devolve into genuine self-deception, but everyone who has looked life square in the face and decided to be happy anyway is not self-deceptive.

Nor are depressed people more in tune with reality. They are for the most part simply neurotic. Their sensitivities exaggerated until the simple social gaffe is laced with personal malice, et cetera. That others don&#039;t pick up on the gaffe is seen as being dense or insensitive, but many others do see the same things in life, but choose to let it go.

As far as the self-deceived go, there certainly are plenty of them out there. I had the distinct blessing to be both athletically and intellectually gifted, and was always much happier being my &quot;nerdy&quot; self than my &quot;cool&quot; self. (Considering the usual company here, I&#039;m assuming I can say such a thing without sounding pretentious.)

The typically &quot;cool&quot; person that would fit into the mold of the self-deceived are never really all that self-deceived; they&#039;re shallow. The things that get other people down don&#039;t affect them because the river just doesn&#039;t run that deep. Which brings me back full circle to my original point, how does one intentionally self-deceive?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This has been brought up already, but I wanted to elaborate. Leaving off of what I think are other flaws in Tyler&#8217;s reasoning, how would one become more self-deceived?</p>
<p>Also, I have doubts as to a universal agreement on the semantics involved here. A person that has learned to let certain aspects of life slide off their back so that they may enjoy life despite its disappointments would likely be labeled as &#8220;self-deceived&#8221; by many.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a considerable amount of study on survivors and the survivor mentality, and much of it involves people simply refusing to accept their fate. Now, of course, that can easily devolve into genuine self-deception, but everyone who has looked life square in the face and decided to be happy anyway is not self-deceptive.</p>
<p>Nor are depressed people more in tune with reality. They are for the most part simply neurotic. Their sensitivities exaggerated until the simple social gaffe is laced with personal malice, et cetera. That others don&#8217;t pick up on the gaffe is seen as being dense or insensitive, but many others do see the same things in life, but choose to let it go.</p>
<p>As far as the self-deceived go, there certainly are plenty of them out there. I had the distinct blessing to be both athletically and intellectually gifted, and was always much happier being my &#8220;nerdy&#8221; self than my &#8220;cool&#8221; self. (Considering the usual company here, I&#8217;m assuming I can say such a thing without sounding pretentious.)</p>
<p>The typically &#8220;cool&#8221; person that would fit into the mold of the self-deceived are never really all that self-deceived; they&#8217;re shallow. The things that get other people down don&#8217;t affect them because the river just doesn&#8217;t run that deep. Which brings me back full circle to my original point, how does one intentionally self-deceive?</p>
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