Comments on: How Biases Save Us From Giving in to Terrorism http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:23:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Zooko O'Whielacronx http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417825 Zooko O'Whielacronx Sun, 22 Jul 2007 18:03:39 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417825 Coincidentally I just happened upon this article, which is quite relevant and authoritative: http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/atran06/atran06_index.html Coincidentally I just happened upon this article, which is quite relevant and authoritative:

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/atran06/atran06_index.html

]]> By: Zooko O'Whielacronx http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417824 Zooko O'Whielacronx Sun, 22 Jul 2007 17:32:36 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417824 You wrote: "This is bad news for terrorism as an effective coercive means to political or social ends.". But that is true only for the political or social end of persuading your enemies to change their policies. This is probably not the political or social end that most terrorists are trying to accomplish, and there is reason to believe that terrorism is a very effective means to other ends. You wrote: “This is bad news for terrorism as an effective coercive means to political or social ends.”.

But that is true only for the political or social end of persuading your enemies to change their policies. This is probably not the political or social end that most terrorists are trying to accomplish, and there is reason to believe that terrorism is a very effective means to other ends.

]]> By: Anders Sandberg http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417823 Anders Sandberg Fri, 20 Jul 2007 16:18:50 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417823 I don't think people underestimate the odds of being killed by terrorism. As far as I know, the subjective risk literature is pretty unanimous in pointing out that subjective risk tends to be overestimated for improbable but dramatic events, especially if there is an element of moral outrage involved. Maybe some people or nations think they are at less risk than they are and trust their governments to be effective, but it doesn't seem to fit the UK and the US at least. BTW, I found this interesting paper when responding: http://www.econ.ku.dk/Events_News/Zeuthen/Zeuthen_2005/Workshop%202005/Papers/Subjective%20risks%20Johansson-Stenman.PDF I havent gone into it much, but it seems to be pretty relevant for this blog: how should public policy reflect risk perceptions, when these may be biased? I don’t think people underestimate the odds of being killed by terrorism. As far as I know, the subjective risk literature is pretty unanimous in pointing out that subjective risk tends to be overestimated for improbable but dramatic events, especially if there is an element of moral outrage involved. Maybe some people or nations think they are at less risk than they are and trust their governments to be effective, but it doesn’t seem to fit the UK and the US at least.

BTW, I found this interesting paper when responding:
http://www.econ.ku.dk/Events_News/Zeuthen/Zeuthen_2005/Workshop%202005/Papers/Subjective%20risks%20Johansson-Stenman.PDF
I havent gone into it much, but it seems to be pretty relevant for this blog: how should public policy reflect risk perceptions, when these may be biased?

]]> By: Keith Elis http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417822 Keith Elis Fri, 20 Jul 2007 13:29:17 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417822 Anders, the odds of any one person being killed in a terrorist attack in their lifetime is very low. The bias literature indicates that most people would tend to *under*estimate even these very low odds. Add to this that people would tend to *over*estimate the odds of the government preventing future terrorist attacks, and I would predict that on average we individually feel our lives are quite safe from terrorism. (see, e.g., http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=TopNews&article=UPI-1-20070712-17370700-bc-britain-terror-poll.xml) If so, terrorists just don't kill enough civilians often enough to raise the odds of being killed to a worrisome prospect. There's no need to change policy when on average we don't feel threatened. This seems a simpler explanation for why we don't bargain with terrorists. Anders, the odds of any one person being killed in a terrorist attack in their lifetime is very low. The bias literature indicates that most people would tend to *under*estimate even these very low odds. Add to this that people would tend to *over*estimate the odds of the government preventing future terrorist attacks, and I would predict that on average we individually feel our lives are quite safe from terrorism. (see, e.g., http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=TopNews&article=UPI-1-20070712-17370700-bc-britain-terror-poll.xml)

If so, terrorists just don’t kill enough civilians often enough to raise the odds of being killed to a worrisome prospect. There’s no need to change policy when on average we don’t feel threatened. This seems a simpler explanation for why we don’t bargain with terrorists.

]]> By: TGGP http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417821 TGGP Thu, 19 Jul 2007 18:53:18 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417821 Michael Vassar, the first to actually coin the term "terrorism" were French revolutionaries carrying out the "Reign of Terror" in reference to themselves. I agree that the non-state actor and "propaganda of the deed" stem from 19th century anarchists. Anders Sandberg, <a href="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/" rel="nofollow">John Robb</a> claims that today's "global guerrillas" using "open source warfare" in a "bazaar of violence" intentionally try to hollow-out a state and cause system dysfunction without actually completely collapsing the state or replacing it. I think he greatly exaggerates all this. Oddly enough (given its name), the somewhat related blog <a href="http://www.cominganarchy.com/" rel="nofollow">Coming Anarchy</a> has a more optimistic take on the ability of state actors (with the Victorian era empires as a model) to deal with this issue. Michael Vassar, the first to actually coin the term “terrorism” were French revolutionaries carrying out the “Reign of Terror” in reference to themselves. I agree that the non-state actor and “propaganda of the deed” stem from 19th century anarchists.

Anders Sandberg, John Robb claims that today’s “global guerrillas” using “open source warfare” in a “bazaar of violence” intentionally try to hollow-out a state and cause system dysfunction without actually completely collapsing the state or replacing it. I think he greatly exaggerates all this. Oddly enough (given its name), the somewhat related blog Coming Anarchy has a more optimistic take on the ability of state actors (with the Victorian era empires as a model) to deal with this issue.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417820 Hopefully Anonymous Thu, 19 Jul 2007 18:48:26 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417820 "an interest in me" should read "an interest with me". “an interest in me” should read “an interest with me”.

]]> By: Hopefully Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417819 Hopefully Anonymous Thu, 19 Jul 2007 18:47:34 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417819 Anders, I understand that you think that you think (not a typing repitition error) that people are motivated by their stated goals more often than your academic peers do, and perhaps than the general population does. Beyond that, I hope you share an interest in me in what the best empirical data can tell us on this topic, even if it contradicts one or both of our intuitions. Anders,
I understand that you think that you think (not a typing repitition error) that people are motivated by their stated goals more often than your academic peers do, and perhaps than the general population does.

Beyond that, I hope you share an interest in me in what the best empirical data can tell us on this topic, even if it contradicts one or both of our intuitions.

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417818 michael vassar Thu, 19 Jul 2007 17:45:39 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417818 Evidence for self-serving war-making by US presidents http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2004/04/war_politics.html In general, the economic methodology is to assume self-interested behavior, where a person's interests can be to some degree inferred by their accomplishments so far, especially if those accomplishments are difficult. This approach may not always match reality, but it seems to frequently be fruitful. Evidence for self-serving war-making by US presidents

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2004/04/war_politics.html

In general, the economic methodology is to assume self-interested behavior, where a person’s interests can be to some degree inferred by their accomplishments so far, especially if those accomplishments are difficult. This approach may not always match reality, but it seems to frequently be fruitful.

]]> By: Anders Sandberg http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417817 Anders Sandberg Thu, 19 Jul 2007 17:30:09 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417817 It is noticeable that none of the terrorist groups discussed in Abrahms list have general anarchy as a goal. Overall, subverting society and ushering in an era of chaos (that will lead to utopia, of course) doesn't seem to be very popular these days. Maybe because it was so obvious that this maximalist goal completely failed. Most terrorist groups probably have a hard time telling exactly how well they are doing. Hopefully Anonymous: I think you are reading far too much into my intentions. I think intentions can be viewed as a vector sum of goals, where some goals are publicly stated and some aren't. Assuming that the main goals are usually unstated (or stated) would constitute an individual or cultural bias (I don't think there is any human universal in this). Even trying to fix these priors with historical data will be contentious, leaving people disagreeing about who is really biased. I tend to think that in my community of western intellectuals people are biased towards overestimating the impact of hidden goals and underestimating the impact of overt goals, and no doubt they think I'm naive and biased in the opposite way. It is noticeable that none of the terrorist groups discussed in Abrahms list have general anarchy as a goal. Overall, subverting society and ushering in an era of chaos (that will lead to utopia, of course) doesn’t seem to be very popular these days. Maybe because it was so obvious that this maximalist goal completely failed. Most terrorist groups probably have a hard time telling exactly how well they are doing.

Hopefully Anonymous: I think you are reading far too much into my intentions. I think intentions can be viewed as a vector sum of goals, where some goals are publicly stated and some aren’t. Assuming that the main goals are usually unstated (or stated) would constitute an individual or cultural bias (I don’t think there is any human universal in this). Even trying to fix these priors with historical data will be contentious, leaving people disagreeing about who is really biased. I tend to think that in my community of western intellectuals people are biased towards overestimating the impact of hidden goals and underestimating the impact of overt goals, and no doubt they think I’m naive and biased in the opposite way.

]]> By: michael vassar http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/how-biases-save.html#comment-417816 michael vassar Thu, 19 Jul 2007 17:08:26 +0000 http://prod.ob.trike.com.au/2007/07/how-biases-save-us-from-giving-in-to-terrorism.html#comment-417816 I believe that late 19th century anarchists were among the earliest terrorists in the modern sense, and that human rights abuses and cabinet failures were high among their explicit goals. I believe that late 19th century anarchists were among the earliest terrorists in the modern sense, and that human rights abuses and cabinet failures were high among their explicit goals.

]]>